Here is the breakdown of how OHL players ranked:
Skaters:
1. Tyler Seguin
2. Taylor Hall
4. Erik Gudbranson
5. Cam Fowler
11. Alexander Burmistrov
14. Austin Watson
15. John McFarland
16. Tyler Toffoli
27. Ryan Martindale
33. Ivan Telegin
34. Jeff Skinner
39. Ryan Spooner
41. Brock Beukeboom
43. Steven Shipley
53. Justin Shugg
55. Joey Hishon
60. Stephen Silas
61. Andrew Yogan
62. Freddie Hamilton
64. Brandon Archibald
66. Greg McKegg
69. Christian Thomas
73. Dalton Smith
76. Devante Smith Pelly
82. Jared Knight
84. Josh Shalla
90. Sam Carrick
92. Michael Sgarbossa
96. Philip Lane
101. Gregg Sutch
103. Cameron Wind
123. Geoffrey Schemitsch
143. Adam Sedlak
151. Reid McNeill
154. Brandon Alderson
156. Austin Levi
158. Joe Rogalski
160. Myles McCauley
163. Corey Durocher
178. Derek Froats
183. Mike Schwindt
185. Taylor Carnevale
186. Alex Cord
189. Andrew Crescenzi
190. Darren Archibald
192. Michael Kantor
Goalies:
4. Mark Visentin
11. Michael Houser
12. Ramis Sadikov
15. Phil Grubauer
19. Scott Wedgewood
23. Bryce O'Hagan
25. Petr Mrazek
27. J.P. Anderson
The official release of the rankings as a whole can be found here.
Should you want to compare this list with the Preliminary and Midterm rankings, they can be found here and here.
Some thoughts:
- Obviously the biggest shock comes at the top where we've been thrown a bit of a curveball. Not only is Seguin rated ahead of Hall, but Gudbranson has jumped ahead of Cam Fowler for the third spot from the OHL. While it may be surprising, it really isn't mind blowing or anything. It's not like these guys are miles apart. We've known all season about the Tyler vs. Taylor debate, and as of late, there's been a lot about Gudbranson and the QMJHL's Brandon Gormley catching up to Cam Fowler for the best defenseman available. While I'm definitely still on the Taylor Hall bandwagon, I have to admit I'm pretty close to being on the Erik Gudbranson bandwagon myself. I'm looking forward to seeing how he plays at the Under 18's.
- Biggest risers on the list are Michael Sgarbossa (+91 spots), Geoffrey Schemitsch (+46 spots), Christian Thomas (+45 spots), Jared Knight (+41 spots), and Freddie Hamilton (+40 spots). Not really any surprises there, however Sgarbossa is a little bit puzzling considering his production dropped after the trade from Barrie. But if you factor in how low he was ranked before, I suppose the large jump makes sense.
- Biggest fallers on the list are Austin Levi (-39 spots), Cameron Wind (-23 spots), Josh Shalla (-20 spots), and Joe Rogalski (-16 spots). Again, none are really surprising to me. I figured Austin Levi would be rated higher than he is, but at the same time I've been lukewarm on him all season.
- As for surprising absentees, Niagara's Matt Petgrave, Mississauga's Riley Brace, Plymouth's Colin MacDonald, Saginaw's Ryan O'Connor, and Sarnia's Nathan Chiarlitti. Most interesting is that O'Connor and Chiarlitti were good enough for Team Canada at the Under 18's, but not good enough to be ranked for the draft. Also really surprised at Brace, whose outstanding playoffs thus far for Missy were likely not taken into consideration.
- Also, good to see Darren Archibald ranked again. Not many guys on their third go around at the draft get ranked by Central Scouting, so I think it's definitely a good sign that they saw fit to put him on this list. Only the WHL's Radko Gudas and Craig Cunningham made the list (ahead of Archibald) as 1990's on their third chance of getting drafted (born January to mid September). I know he's definitely at the top of my list for draft re-entries this year (which will be an upcoming Sunday Top 10).
As for the NHL's Central Scouting Rankings, what are your thoughts?
Posts
15 comments:
I notice that you were big on andrew shaw a year ago, does he still have potential to play pro? Do you think he will be invited to the prospect training camp for some NHL tem?
Also what do you think of kain allicock, mike mascioli and jason wilson? Do you think they will be invited to an NHL prospect training camp?
Also what is your assessment of the skill set of all four players? Could they make it to the NHL with their physical play and fighting ability?
IceMan asks... Do you have to be on the Entry Draft List to be eligible for the draft?
Brock, have you ever done (or seen) any comparative analysis on the NCS Final Rankings and actual draft orders? Have they been pretty much on target for early rounds? How about later rounds? Have they been more apt to miss players who wind up getting drafted or have they been more apt to include players who get passed over? How about their ranking order - has it proven to be any more accurate than yours?
Tysen,
Andrew Shaw is definitely a player I like to "cheer" for. He's a fan favourite in Niagara and it's easy to see why. I was big on him last year and thought he had an outside shot of being drafted. However, I had high expectations for him this year and I don't think he lived up to them. He had a nice improvement offensive from 17 to 36 points, but I truly expected him to breakout in the neighbourhood of the 50 point barrier. His consistency offensively just didn't take that next step forward.
While it's possible he receives an invite to a training camp, I wouldn't count on it at this point. If he can really grab a hold of a second line spot in Niagara next year, hit that 50 point barrier and continue to be a pesky fighter, then we're definitely looking at a guy with pro potential. As a 1991, he's still got some time.
Of the other three you mentioned, I think Jason Wilson easily has the best chance, especially considering he was an invite to the Boston Bruins camp this season. He quietly had a pretty good year in Owen Sound and I think he's actually got an outside shot of being a draft pick as a 1990 and if he doesn't, I think he definitely gets an invite somewhere. With his size, physicality and fairly good hands in close, he has pro potential. If he returns as an overager next year and pots 30 goals (not out of the realm of possibility), I think he'll have a real shot to get a contract from an NHL team.
Allicock and Mascioli are much less likely. Allicock's size may attract some teams, and he may end up in the AHL/ECHL, but I'm not sure about his NHL aspirations. And Mascioli just isn't good enough IMO. But then again, with scrappers/enforcers, they tend to find jobs in the AHL/ECHL with more ease than other graduating players. We'll see how both of them develop in their overage seasons.
IceMan,
Not at all. The Central Scouting list is merely put out as a guide for NHL teams and for fans. You do not have to be on their list to be drafted and just the same, you don't have to be high on their list to get drafted high (ask Kyle Clifford).
Trapper,
The Central Scouting list is probably as good as any other scouting agency at predicting the outcome of the draft. They win some, they lose some. Redline, McKeens, THN, and ISS are realistically just as accurate, at least so it would seem.
However, the one thing I really dislike about the CSS list is the timing of it's release. The CHL playoffs are ongoing as the list is released and I think a strong performance in the playoffs can really catch the ire of NHL scouts (ask a guy like Kory Nagy). But more importantly, it's released before the Under 18's occur, which is just downright weird and has always irked me. That tournament can have such a large impact on draft ranking. See Kyle Clifford last year or any number of players in years past. The glory of that tournament is that (especially for Canada), a lot of under the radar guys take part due to so many higher rated players still being involved in the OHL playoffs. It's a chance for the Geoffrey Schemitsch's to really make their mark.
As to how my rankings compare. Just using last year as an example, I thought I did pretty well...other than overrating the goaltenders available. I like to think I know the OHL pretty well (key being, I like to think). Obviously I have my own biases towards certain players just like any other rating.
However there is one draft ranking that proves to be the most accurate year in and year out. That's Bob Mackenzie's draft ranking in the middle of June. He only ranks a top 60 (plus HM's), but he polls NHL scouts and has a lot of insider information that he uses to formulate his list. Needless to say, he's just the man and if I'm relying on one draft "list" to be accurate, it's his.
Thanks Brock. I don't get to watch much junior games so I try to get my assessment of players based on their stats and reading other people's assessment of them.
I am a Sens fan and am interested in what enforcer type prospects are available which actually have NHL upside. The sens only have Mike Sdao and Jason Bailey. The Sens really need a few more Chris Neil's in their system. The only players that come to mind are either the one's I had previously mentioned or Leigh Salters, as well as Darian Dziurzynski, Riley Boychuk and Randy Mcnaught from the WHL.
a few predictions..
Ryan O'Connor will be grabbed up by someone in the 3rd round, and will be a poor man's Ryan Ellis and will make the NHL
Nathan Chiarlitti goes 5th round, due to his performance at the U-18wowing scouts and eliminating the size issue with his unparalleled work ethic, compete level, and ability to handle some of the best in the world on one on one situations.
Matt Petgrave is someone i've only saw a few times.. once in person a couple on tv.. and he looks like a solid defensive prospect. I still feel we'll see 60 guys come out of the OHL.
How Gregg Sutch and Michael Sgarbossa move up in the rankings blow my mind, Sgarbossa was traded to my division (West) and so i see/hear alot about him, and he in no way really stands out at all.
One of the issues I have with NHL CS rankings is they put far too much value in size. There are a few exceptions here and there, but alot of the guys that shoul dbe there and aren't are size related issues, namely Ryan O'Connor. He plays like he's 6'2" 200, and as long as he stands clear of injuries he will continue to be effective playing that style. Thats my 2 cents.
It's cool to see Kantor make that list. I didn't even see that when I looked over the list. The kid played the first half of the season in the NAHL, didn't do squat there, and signed with Saginaw as an unheralded free agent. IIRC, he scored in his first two OHL games, and he was a nice combination of grit, skill and fighting ability for the Spirit. I go to a lot of Spirit games, and he became a huge fan favorite right away. Great story.
Austin Levi will be drafted somewhere between the 3rd and 5th rounds in my opinion. I can only attribute the drop in rankings to a system that favors point production. From a purely defensive standpoint, he was much better than the final rankings suggest. His work ethic and compete level in the playoffs was incredible. Most importantly, he was effective keeping goals out of his net and keeping his team on the attack. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets picked before an Archibald or Beukeboom, but I'd be shocked if Sedlak, Wind, or Chiarlitti went before Levi.
AntiRyan,
I'll agree and disagree.
I agree that Levi's package of size and potential more than likely sees him drafted higher than CSS has him. I'd also agree that he's probably drafted ahead of guys like Sedlak, Wind or Chiarlitti. He's an alluring prospect because he's inconsistent (at least from what I've seen), but he's also got some red flags because of his inconsistency, if that at all makes sense. What I mean is that you look at a 6'3 defenseman who sometimes plays physical, sometimes has the ability to skate the puck up ice and is improving his defensive zone coverage and wonder what could happen if he puts it all together. But on the other side, I think you have to be concerned that perhaps his hockey sense isn't as high as you'd like it (from what I've seen). So it's a toss up.
That being said, I disagree about Archibald and Beukeboom. I think you're looking at two defenseman who have everything going for them that Levi does...and more. They've both got his size. They are both as physical or more physical than he. They are both as or as close to as mobile as Levi. And they are both as solid or more solid defensively. On top of that, you throw in the fact that both are better offensively right now, and I can't see there being an edge given to Levi.
But I do see Levi getting drafted higher than CSS has him, probably in that range you stated.
Always thoughtful and balanced analysis, Brock. Wish we could put money down on this one. Even though I like Levi a little better than both Beukeboom & Archibald, realistically there's probably no way he'll get picked higher than your namesake (and a legacy player at that). I do have a feeling though that some team will give him the edge over Archi or he'll be very close behind. I see a lot of heart in that kid. Just a gut feeling.
Hi, I noticed that Cody Lindsay of the Ottawa 67s is not on your OHL players list - why is that? Also, if someone does not make the list does this mean that they have no chance of being drafted? Thanks.
I just noticed that my question regarding the list and a players chance of being drafted was answered already. Sorry about that.
Interesting evolution of comments from the Whalers coach on Levi found Googling...
Aug 2008 Signing: "His midget coach....said Austin had the most potential of any of his players on his team." Consider that was the team with Moffatt, Zucker, Knight, Watson (really?)
April 2010 Whalers: Levi was named the team’s Most Improved Player...“He (Levi) has just, from last year to this year, jumped leaps and bounds,” Vellucci said. “And in his playoff performance he increased his draft potential, moving up from possibly being a third- or fourth-rounder to being a late second-rounder.”
Could be propoganda from a good coach pubbing one of his boys, but with a reputation like his, I don't think MV would just blow smoke. I also was pretty impressed with Levi this year especially in the playoffs. I really diagree with your comments questioning his hockey sense. Given all things, I think he may be developing faster than you're able to notice. I say early third round for this one.
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