Saturday, August 24, 2024

Preseason Top 30 for the 2025 NHL Draft

It's the end of August and that means a new OHL season is right around the corner. It also means that it's time for me to release my first draft ranking for 2025. To assess these players we've seen them in the OHL (mostly) and for some we've seen them at the U17's and at the Hlinka/Gretzky Cup. 

Of course, a ton is going to change between now and the actual 2025 draft. A lot will likely change before I make my first in season list in October/November. Here was last year's preseason list, as an example.

I'm really excited about this group. Early on, it looks like a really strong crop. Lots of quality late birthday 2006 players. The 2007 born players looked great at the Hlinka/Gretzky Cup. Looks like we'll have a couple high end Imports. If I was a betting man, I'd say that the OHL could easily have double digit players in consideration for the first round by season's end.

If you want a piece that goes into a little more depth, with some video, I did a preseason look at the region for McKeen's Hockey (found here).

Here's the list:

1. Porter Martone - Wing - Brampton Steelheads
The 2023/24 season was a very solid one for Martone. He was terrific for Canada internationally, captaining them to U18 gold in April. He took a nice step forward in the OHL with the Steelheads. As such, he's now pretty universally viewed as a top three selection heading into the year. He's the type of player NHL teams have to be drooling over. He models his game after the Tkachuk brothers and it's easy to see why. Given Martone's well rounded skill set and physical intensity, he projects as the kind of guy who could excel in the NHL playoffs; his game is perfectly tailored to success there. I really liked the improvements made to Martone's skating last year. I felt like he got much quicker and it really helped his offensive consistency. I also really love Martone's vision and passing ability, given his tenacity. He can outwork defenders down low and has the playmaking chops to consistently create chances from the turnovers he creates. SO what's next? In order to push James Hagens at the top of the draft, Martone is going to need to become one of the best offensive players in the OHL. He's going to need to challenge for the Eddie Powers. I also want to see the physical intensity/power forward game become even more consistent. I want him to be a pain in the arse to play against every shift. Lastly, team success will play a role here. Most, including myself, are expecting Brampton to be among the best teams in the OHL this year. Can Martone lead the Steelheads to an OHL championship?

2. Matthew Schaefer - Defense - Erie Otters
I can't say enough awesome things about Schaefer. Had the opportunity to interview him a few times in the past when I was doing the THN podcast and he was just such a mature young man. I've heard nothing but amazing things about his character and I think he's got the potential to be an NHL captain down the road. On the ice, Schaefer is such a well rounded player too. It all starts with his skating ability, which based on what I saw at the Hlinka/Gretzky, has managed to improve even more. He's so dynamic in all four directions. It makes him so difficult to contain. He's a breakout machine with how he handles pressure in the defensive end and advances play with his feet. Defensively, his game has already made considerable strides and I think it will continue to do so. He understands how to leverage his mobility to be a defensive asset and now it's about getting stronger to win those one on one battles more consistently. IMO, he's the top defender in this 2025 class and he's proven that with his incredible International play. Now, it's about doing it at the OHL level. If Schaefer can take his offensive play to another level in Erie, he could easily challenge for the top three, along with Martone. 

3. Michael Misa - Center/Wing - Saginaw Spirit
Ranking Misa third does feel a little unfair given his talent level, but Martone and Schaefer are just special prospects in their own right. I think everyone knows that Misa is incredibly talented, as a former exceptional status player. His speed and ability to create in transition is impressive. However, I think what a lot of people don't realize is how mature Misa's game is already away from the puck. He's a terrific two-way player who shows really advanced instincts and anticipation as a defensive player. It's one of the reasons why Saginaw was able to have such a strong year, because their forward group buys into being competitive in all three zones. That said, I'd be lying if I said that I felt Misa had shown us his full offensive potential. He's functioned primarily as a complementary piece in Saginaw thus far. Will this be the year where we see him take over games the way that he's capable of; can he drive play consistently and dominate touches? The shot is elite, will he look to shoot more and get between the dots more to use it? Will his decision making and strength on the puck improve, allowing him to really take control of time of possession, utilizing his quickness the way that he should be able to? Is he a center or a wing long term? Lots of questions. This year should provide some answers. Tons to like, even with those questions.

4. Malcolm Spence - Wing - Erie Otters
Spence is such an intriguing player because of his athleticism and safe NHL floor. He's such an explosive straight line skater. He can use it to impact the game in a variety of different ways. He gets after it on the forecheck. He closes quickly along the wall and can be a defensive asset. He can be very dangerous as a straight line attacker offensively. Combine that with his physicality and you get a very versatile player who can be utilized in almost every situation. We've seen that Internationally, where Spence has excelled as a two-way force for Canada at the U18 level. I guess my questions revolve around his offensive upside. I've found his decision making with the puck to be very inconsistent as an OHL player thus far. Additionally, his execution as an offensive weapon has been inconsistent. Sometimes he looks skilled, other times, he struggles to coral passes at full speed or maintain possession. The same can be said of his finishing ability. All the pieces are there, but the puzzle is far from complete. If Spence can really take over games this season the way that he's capable of, we could be looking at a potential top 7-8 selection. If not, I worry that he could fall as an older player over concerns that his development has plateaued. 

5. Brady Martin - Center/Wing - Soo Greyhounds
It was great to see Martin perform so well for Canada at the Hlinka/Gretzky in a limited role. I think he really opened some eyes. He was so good in the last few months of last year's OHL season and it seems like he's really found the confidence needed to be an effective player at this level. Martin is a unique player. He's tenacious and physical; his motor never stops. However, he's also incredibly slick and skilled with the puck. He routinely beats defenders one on one and he's very determined to get pucks to the middle of the ice. Martin is also a strong defensive presence, making him the kind of player that you can plug anywhere into your lineup...just as the Canadian coaching staff did at the Hlinka/Gretzky. Even with limited ice time, I'm not sure if you noticed that it was Martin on the ice at the end of the game to protect the lead in the gold medal game. I have absolutely no doubt that he's going to have a terrific year in the Soo. The only negative is the skating. Martin needs to get quicker. His stride is not the most efficient. But, similar to Cole Beaudoin, I think NHL teams could overlook this given Martin's compete level. 

6. Jake O'Brien - Center - Brantford Bulldogs
Efficient is the word that I would use to describe O'Brien. That's owing to his terrific IQ; this is a very smart player. He's one of those guys who always seems to be in the right place at the right time in all three zones, and he always seems to make the right play with the puck. His best asset is unquestionably his passing ability. He can really thread the needle. He's extremely dangerous working down low or coming off the wall, part of the reason why he was so effective on the powerplay with Brantford last year. He didn't have the best Hlinka/Gretzky performance and I think it did magnify some of the things that he needs to improve on. O'Brien doesn't ooze athletic tools. He's probably best classified as average as a skater and average physically. He's at his best when he's able to slow the game down and can struggle to play with pace. We saw that last year as an OHL rookie (even despite his Emms Family Award winning year) and we saw it at the Hlinka/Gretzky. O'Brien's efficiency and intelligence will make him coveted; I expect him to have another solid year for Brantford. There's some Robert Thomas here. However, without some improvements, he could end up being more of a second/third round bet, rather than a first.

7. Carson Cameron - Defense - Peterborough Petes
Don't let the fact that Cameron was cut from the Hlinka/Gretzky team fool you, he's a very effective defender. Don't forget that Beckett Sennecke wasn't even INVITED to the Hlinka/Gretzky camp last season and ended up getting drafted third overall. It's not the be all and end all. Right now, Cameron's most effective as a defensive player. He's highly competitive. He's very mobile. He's got great defensive instincts. He's this year's Ben Danford. Offensively, he's a bit of a work in progress and I'd guess that's what got him the axe by HC staff this summer. His exits and breakouts aren't always the cleanest. His decision making with the puck and the quickness of his decisions need to improve. However, he has shown flashes of being a capable puck mover and point producer. A lot of that has to do with his skating ability and his solid point shot. This is an aggressive ranking for a player that I've liked a lot dating back to his Canada Winter Games performance. I think there's a lot to like here and I'm excited to see the progression this year.

8. Kashawn Aitcheson - Defense - Barrie Colts
What a pleasant surprise Aitcheson was last year for Barrie in what was kind of a frustrating year for the franchise. He really stepped up when the team lost Beau Akey and consistently impressed when I saw the Colts play. A true two-way force, Aitcheson is incredibly physical. He has a penchant for the big hit and he really make his presence known and felt on the ice. Offensively, he's a solid presence in the o-zone with how he gets pucks to the net and holds the blueline. He can jump up in the play or lead the rush, but without high end skating ability, I do wonder how effective he'll be doing that at the higher levels. As an older draft eligible, it'll be about finding a way to continue to improve this year, especially offensively. Most importantly, can the four way mobility and quickness improve? Aitcheson's two-way effectiveness and physicality make him a pretty solid bet to be a top 75 pick this year IMO, even this early in the game.

9. Cameron Reid - Defense - Kitchener Rangers
I think what was most impressive about Reid is that he improved every month of his rookie season with the Rangers, finishing the season as a critical component on a team with strong playoff aspirations. He's a strong skater. He makes a good exit pass. He keeps his head on a swivel. He defends pace well with good gap control and an active stick. He has good defensive instincts. There's a lot to like at both ends of the ice. That was fully on display at the recent Hlinka/Gretzky too, where Reid was a fairly solid presence for Team Canada. I've said before that I felt like Reid had higher offensive potential than Matt Schaefer, but I'm not sure I believe that anymore. That doesn't mean that Reid can't be a quality powerplay quarterback too. This year, I'm going to be looking for more activation from him, using his skating ability to be more aggressive offensively at even strength. The only real weakness in his game comes from the need to play with more jam in the defensive end. Last year, he struggled defending the net front and wasn't winning 50/50 battles consistently. Not surprising considering his age. This year, we need to see that improve. If it does, I think Reid is a potential top 50 pick.

10. Luca Romano - Center/Wing - Kitchener Rangers
IMO, the preseason top nine is pretty set. You'd be hard pressed to find someone who didn't have those nine players in some order. That means I considered a ton of different players for this number ten spot (which really means very little this early in the game). I decided to go with Romano because I think that he has the potential to be a really versatile player as he bulks up. The first thing you'll notice about his game is his speed. He's lightning quick. He loves to play at a breakneck pace. However, he's a smart player too. His offensive skill set is pretty well rounded. He does everything pretty well. It's that combination of a well rounded game, high IQ, and the speed element that could make him a very versatile pro. We definitely saw that as an OHL rookie and we saw it recently at the Hlinka/Gretzky. What's missing from his game is strength on the puck and composure under pressure. He's just too easy to separate from the puck right now. That was one of my biggest takeaways at the Hlinka, that it looks like that hadn't improved much. Regardless, he could easily be this year's Jett Luchanko with the right mindset and improvements.

11. Tyler Hopkins - Wing - Kingston Frontenacs
Hard to have Hopkins any lower right now despite a disappointing rookie season with Kingston last year. I think his game has so many interesting components that gives him great upside. He's a very strong skater. He's got skill and creativity. He flashes physical tenacity and a pest like game. The question is, what's the on ice identity here? What's the offensive upside beyond the OHL? Unfortunately, with limited ice time at the Hlinka/Gretzky, we didn't really have those questions answered. With some graduations up front and a few trades, Hopkins should be given a much larger role with Kingston this year and I'm really curious to see what he does with it. I think by October/November, we're going to have a really good idea as to the type of player Hopkins can become at this level and beyond; the pieces should start to come together.

12. Travis Hayes - Wing - Soo Greyhounds
In that previously linked McKeen's article, I wrote about how Travis Hayes was like a hybrid between his brothers Gavin and Avery. I honestly believe that this is the best way to describe his game, and it's obviously meant as a complement given that both were highly effective OHL players. Travis brings speed. He brings tenacity. He never seems to take a shift off. He's skilled enough to be a solid complement to linemates more equipped to drive play, and he understands how to play without the puck in the offensive zone. There's a reason why he made the OHL first all rookie team last year. So what happens this year now that the Soo are retooling a bit? I think we'll get a pretty good indication of his offensive upside and that will be the difference between him being a potential top 50 pick and someone who ultimately ends up going unselected. 

13. Lucas Karmiris - Center - Brampton Steelheads
It was like the light bulb went on for Karmiris in the second half of last season. He became a totally different player late in the year and on a lot of those nights, he was actually Mississauga's best player. The proof is in the production. Including the playoffs, Karmiris had 31 points in the final 27 games. Not only was he producing and driving play, but he had developed into a terrific two-way player and someone who was being counted upon by the Steelheads to play in every situation. Karmiris is probably best described as having average athletic tools (not the biggest, only a slightly above average skater), but the other tools are all excellent. If the Steelheads stick with their "traditional" first line of MacDonell, Misa, and Martone, that would leave Karmiris potentially centering new addition Carson Rehkopf and that could mean a great jump in year long production. As a late born 2006 and without those high end athletic/physical tools, he's going to need to produce at a good clip to firmly stay on the draft radar. I think there's great odds. The Karmiris that I saw late last year could be a pretty high pick.

14. Ethan Czata - Center - Niagara IceDogs
Czata is the kind of player that I have a lot of time for and I think he's going to draw a ton of draft interest this year. He plays a heavy, mature, two-way game from the center position and he has decent size. He skates well. He really brings a lot to the table as a potential swiss army knife. That's why he made the Canadian Hlinka/Gretzky team this summer, even though he didn't play a ton. The question that we'll need answered this season is...what's the offensive upside? We've seen glimpses of a power game that can generate scoring chances. He was particularly terrific at last year's U17's. However, can he be a consistent scorer? Is there creativity and playmaking ability, especially as a pivot? Bottom line, we know what he can do as a shutdown center and as a high energy guy, but is there anything more there?

15. Caden Taylor - Wing - Peterborough Petes
One of the ultimate boom/bust players on this list right now. We've got a big winger who has among the highest goal scoring upside of any player on this list. That's the kind of player NHL teams are looking for. Taylor can really shoot the puck. If he scores 35+ goals this year for the Petes, he could easily be a top 20 pick. However, he really needs to iron out some issues in his game first. The pace needs to improve. He's not a terrible skater, but his ability to play with pace is inconsistent; he can struggle to maintain possession while building speed. More critically, his play away from the puck and his decision making need to mature. He needs to get to the net more consistently and learn to use his size/length to have a larger impact on the game than just as a triggerman. That's why he's a boom/bust guy right now. The upside is just too high to rank him any lower currently.

16. Quinn Beauchesne - Defense - Guelph Storm
I actually really like Beauchesne, so this feel pretty low for him given that fact. IMO, he's right in the mix with the others ranked ahead of him to be the second OHL defender drafted behind Schaefer. He struggled with injuries as a rookie last year, so staying healthy will be priority number one. It's been a good start to the year for him after earning a spot on the Canadian Hlinka/Gretzky team where he performed well. He's just a very efficient player at both ends. High IQ. I guess the concern I have about Beauchesne is that he's one of those classic jack of all trades types without an elite trait. Projecting those kinds of defenders can be difficult. Is Beauchesne going to be just a really good junior defender or is he a true NHL prospect? Beauchesne is bound to get a ton of ice time in Guelph this year, especially if Cam Allen is moved (which I anticipate at some point) and that's going to be a great showcase for him, even if the Storm are likely to struggle. Can he become a high end puck mover? Can he become a high end powerplay quarterback? Can he continue to improve defensively by becoming a more physically intense defender? 

17. Jack Ivankovic - Goaltender - Brampton Steelheads
This is bound to shock some people given how damn good Ivankovic is. He's an incredible young goalie. His performance for Canada at the Hlinka/Gretzky was no fluke. He's so strong technically and is an outstanding play tracker. He always seems to get himself square to shooters and is quick to cut down angles, but rarely overcommits; his movement control is really advanced. In all honesty, it's hard to find a fault in his game. Well except for the fact that he's under 6ft. Look, I get it. It's height-est. But, the bottom line is that NHL teams just don't draft undersized goaltenders early in the draft. I think back to former Belleville Bull Mike Murphy. I don't think many people remember how truly amazing he was as an OHL netminder. He even had success at the AHL level too. However, as a 5'11 netminder, he just couldn't find a way to breakthrough to the NHL with any success. Now, granted, Murphy was more of a "scrambler" ala Tim Thomas and that's not Ivankovic's game. The point remains...ranking Ivankovic as a top two round guy this early in the game given the NHL's propensity for size in the goaltending position is an extremely risky proposition. How this ends up going down will be one of the key story lines for the draft in the region this year.

18. Jack Nesbitt - Center - Windsor Spitfires
Nesbitt is going to be a big time mover up this list if things come together for him this year. He's a big, power center with offensive upside and we know how NHL teams feel about those. The key word here is upside. Like many of Windsor's players last year, I thought Nesbitt really struggled at times as a rookie. The skating is going to need to improve. The puck management will need to improve. The consistency of his physicality and off puck engagement will need to improve. He has the potential to be a dominant, all situations type, but he looked a little overwhelmed in his first OHL season. If things come together for him, he could easily be a first round selection.

19. Nico Addy - Winger - Peterborough Petes
You guys should know by now that Addy is my kind of player; a throwback power forward type. The hulking winger loves to throw the body around and he has the potential to truly dominate down low. He can be successful in driving the net and as he builds confidence, he's going to be tough to stop at the OHL level as a North/South attacker. The question is, can the skating get to the level it needs to. Addy has heavy boots and it negatively impacted his game as an OHL rookie. He doesn't have to be the prettiest or most efficient skater at his size, but improving his quickness and agility will be imperative for him. Of all the players on this list, he might be the one that I'm most curious to see this season as a sophomore. Even though Addy is already gigantic, he's actually one of the youngest players eligible this year with a mid August birth date.

20. Shamar Moses - Wing - Barrie Colts
I thought it made sense to group the three power forwards together and Moses is the last of those. He might be the best skater of the three currently, especially in terms of agility and ability to work East/West, rather than just North/South. He's also already a pretty consistently engaged player without the puck. Even as a rookie, he brought it physically every shift and has a clear identity already. It's just a matter of trying to figure out the kind of offensive upside he possesses. I thought he struggled to convert on many of his chances last year. Going to be interesting to see the kind of ice time and responsibility Moses gets this season.

21. Luke Dragusica - Defense - Brampton Steelheads
I think Dragusica has a chance to be viewed positively by the NHL scouting community as a modern day shutdown candidate. Decent size. Good mobility. Was already a physical presence as a 16/17 year old last year. He generally kept things simple as a rookie and didn't show a ton of offensive promise, but I know he was viewed as having two-way upside as an OHL draft prospect out of the Toronto Marlboros organization. Is likely to stay on the draft radar even without significant offensive production, but it would go a long way to opening some eyes further.

22. Tanner Lam - Wing - Kitchener Rangers
Lam is a fun player to watch. Lots of speed and skill in a small package. He's going to be a high scoring OHL player at some point. I would guess that by the time he graduates out of this league, he'll be a top 10 point producer. He really did have an impressive rookie year for the Rangers and was more consistent than I would have expected him to be (after having watched him with Halton a bit as a U16 player). As an undersized winger, he's going to need to produce offensively to be draft relevant. He definitely has the potential to do so, but let's see how his strength on the puck and off puck play has improved this year too.

23. Henry Brzustewicz - Defense - London Knights
Really curious to see what we get out of Brzustewicz this year. Last year, he was in and out of the lineup, and even played some games at forward due to London's depth. This season, he should be a consistent part of the lineup on the third pairing for the Knights. It was a shame that he got cut from the U.S. Hlinka/Gretzky roster, as it would have been great to see his progress there. I actually think Henry is quite different than his brother Hunter. At that age, Hunter always wowed me with his agility and overall four way mobility. Where as I see Henry as more of an explosive linear mover, with kind of awkward/stiff four way mobility. He's longer than Hunter and he looks to attack in straight lines out of the defensive end. Henry also showed some physicality as a rookie and I'm curious to see how that develops further. We've got a right shot defender with decent size and two-way upside, playing out of a high end program...let's see how he looks this year with consistent ice time.

24. Owen Griffin - Center - Oshawa Generals
Feel a bit bad for Griffin. He's sort of been everyone's whipping boy from the 2023 draft class, given his struggles as a rookie. Not too often do you see such a high selection not get picked to try out for the Canadian Hlinka team the next summer too. However, I do think that Griffin was a bit unlucky last year; puck luck rarely went his way. When I watched Oshawa, even into the playoffs, I found like a lot of the chances he was creating just weren't getting converted into goals. Or he was making a great play on the puck to extend possession, but wasn't drawing assists because THAT play was a precursor to an eventual goal. I think he's a highly intelligent player. I was impressed by his off puck improvements over the year. But...this is a game of production and that needs to improve. To do that, the physical/athletic tools will need to improve, especially given his size. Hopefully he comes into Oshawa's camp this year quicker and stronger and he's able to be way more consistent. Griffin reminds me a bit of former high pick Pano Fimis, which I'm not sure is great for his NHL draft odds, but at this stage of the game, he deserves mention and doesn't deserve the kind of flak he's taken thus far.

25. James Barr - Defense - Sarnia Sting
A player to really keep an eye on IMO. Had a tough year with injuries (and even an illness) that cut his rookie season in half, but there's solid two-way upside here. He has decent size and mobility from the right side and even showed promise as a potential powerplay quarterback for the Sting. He might take a bit of a backseat to Mitch Young and Lukas Fischer this coming year from an offensive perspective, but with strength upgrades, he should still be able to standout at both ends. I think that this is a really smart defender and I'm really curious to see what we get out of him in a full year on what should be an improved Sarnia team.

26. Carter Kostuch - Wing - Sarnia Sting
Back to back Sting players. Kostuch was solid for Sarnia following a trade from North Bay, finishing the year on a high note. He's a high energy winger who has a great compete level. Forechecks hard. Brings an element of physicality. Works the wall. Drives the net. I think he's also a pretty intelligent player who projects as a solid two-way, versatile type. Good skater too. You could probably argue...what separates Kostuch from a guy like Travis Hayes? I think just consistency at this point. I'm also a little more confident in Hayes' offensive upside. Projecting these types can be tricky a year out from their NHL draft year. 

27. David Bedkowski - Defense - Oshawa Generals
So long as his play doesn't dip, I guarantee that Bedkowski will be a guy consistently ranked higher on NHL team's lists compared to that in the public scouting sphere. This is the exact kind of player teams are targeting these days. Big, physical, mobile, right shot defender who projects as a quality shutdown guy. I thought about putting him higher, but I want to see how his puck play and decision making improve in his third OHL season. That should give us some indication as to whether he has any sort of offensive upside. 

28. Nic Whitehead - Center - Ottawa 67's
It's going to be really interesting to see if Whitehead gets more ice time this year for the 67's. Was scratched a lot late in the year and into the playoffs, which was disappointing because I actually thought he brought a nice spark to their bottom six. Speed is the name of the game here. Whitehead could be in contention for the quickest player on this list. He's also a skilled playmaker. No question, he was physically overwhelmed at times as a rookie and turnovers were a bit of an issue. Also limited his ability to be any sort of factor away from the puck or defensively, which is likely why he hit the press box for the playoffs. However, I like the upside.

29. Kimi Korbler - Wing - Ottawa 67's
The adjustment period for Korbler was definitely rough. He came in with pretty high expectations and he struggled pretty badly the first half of the year. However, he was much better in the second half and I think that bodes well for improvement this year in his draft year (as a late born 2006). I think the biggest thing for him is getting stronger. He's not the biggest guy, but his game is all about being a high-energy guy; forechecking, winning battles along the wall and near the crease, playing with pace. He has the tools to be a really good complementary piece, but lets see how the production comes along this season.

30. Jeremy Martin - Wing - Flint Firebirds
Another high energy guy. Martin skates well and I was impressed with his grasp of his on ice identity already. It's clear he knows the kind of game he needs to play to be successful at the higher levels. It's all about using his speed to get to the net and he shows great promise as a goal scorer because of some soft hands too. He also brings a strong element of physicality. Lots to like here as a potential complementary piece. Now it's about seeing how other parts of his game come together. Is he more than just a speedy, crease crashing pest?

Honorable Mentions (in alphabetical order):

Blake Arrowsmith - Wing - London Knights
Jake Crawford - Center - Owen Sound Attack
Tristan Delisle - Center - Oshawa Generals
Artem Frolov - Defense - Flint Firebirds
Nolan Jackson - Defense - Sudbury Wolves
Jimmy Lombardi - Center - Flint Firebirds
Adrian Manzo - Defense - Windsor Spitfires
Jaeden Nelson - Goaltender - Ottawa 67's
Parker Snellgrove - Center - Guelph Storm
Matheas Stark - Defense/Wing - Kitchener Rangers
Ethan Weir - Wing - Kingston Frontenacs
Aiden Young - Wing - Peterborough Petes



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