OHL Playoff Predictions: OHL Final

Hard to believe that the season is finally reaching its end. It seems like just yesterday we were talking about the season starting, and here we are at its conclusion. The Guelph Storm are here in the finals like many of us thought they'd be at the start of the season. North Bay, on the other hand, is trying to cap off their Cinderella season. Man, who would have thought that they'd take out Oshawa as easy as they did. As for the predictions, I'm 9-5 through the playoffs so far, let's try to get to 10.

Here's how I see the OHL Final:

Guelph Storm vs. North Bay Battalion
Season Series: 2-0 (Guelph)
My Analysis: North Bay fans better be happy that I keep picking their team to lose. I think I'm their good luck charm (I've had them losing every round so far). The team has bought into Stan Butler's defensive first system at the right time and they're making it incredibly difficult for opposing offenses. This will be their biggest test yet as they face off against the OHL's top offense, an offense which has continued to score at about a 5 goal per game clip during this year's playoffs. North Bay's Jake Smith has been fantastic in net so far and he's going to need to be even better this round. Here's my train of thought. You have to celebrate and respect North Bay's outstanding defensive effort this postseason. I've underestimated them every step of the way. Unfortunately (or maybe fortunately for North Bay fans if I truly am the good luck charm), I just don't see them being able to stop Guelph. The Storm have been (very consistently) the best team in the league this season and I don't think anything stops them from reaching the Memorial Cup at this time.
Prediction: Guelph in 5

How do you think the OHL final ends?

OHL Playoff Predictions: Conference Finals

Tomorrow night the Conference finals get under way, so let's preview the match-ups. I'm 8-4 through the first two rounds.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Oshawa Generals vs. 2. North Bay Battalion
Season Series: 2-2 (TIE)
My Analysis: Wow, the Battalion just keep on trucking. It ain't pretty but it's working. The veteran leadership core of the team (Goodrow, Thomson, Paul, Blujus, Miller) has been fantastic, as has goaltender Jake Smith. They're going to make this one tough series for Oshawa. Meanwhile, the Generals haven't really been tested thus far and are also riding a big time confidence high. I think the teams are a wash on defense as both teams have terrific veteran leadership on the backend. In net, even though Jake Smith is playing well, I have to give the edge to Daniel Altshuller as the veteran (and he's been fantastic thus far too). At forward, North Bay is stronger than you would think and they are getting the most out of their line-up right now (chemistry is fantastic). However, Oshawa does have more game breakers in their line-up. The one big discrepancy between the two teams is special teams play. Both team's PK units have been terrific in the postseason, however North Bay's powerplay has been pitiful. If they intend to beat an offensive powerhouse like Oshawa, they're going to need to take better advantage, one man up. In the end, I think Oshawa's higher skill level on offense, special teams play, and veteran goaltending edge out North Bay.
Prediction: Oshawa in 6


WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Guelph Storm vs. 3. Erie Otters
Season Series: 4-2 (Guelph)
My Analysis: Erie's goaltending sure wasn't strong in the first round against Saginaw, but it did a complete 180 thanks to Devin Williams against the Greyhounds. The argument could be made that their goaltending is still a situation that could be exploited by a powerful Guelph offense, however Guelph's goaltending is equally inexperienced when it comes to the playoffs (even if Justin Nichols has been terrific this year). Goaltending is a wash for me. Everything else tips in Guelph's favour though. They're the deeper team at forward and the more difficult team to match up against defensively. Guelph's has 3 hot lines right now who are putting the pressure on opposing defenses, where as Erie really only has two (all be it two fantastic ones). I like Guelph's chances here. They would have been my pick to go all the way at the start of the playoffs so there is no changing that now.
Prediction: Guelph in 6

What do you think?

NHL Central Scouting Final Rankings for 2014

NHL Central Scouting has released their final rankings for the 2014 NHL Entry Draft. Below is a breakdown of how OHL players were ranked.

SKATERS

1. Sam Bennett (1)
2. Aaron Ekblad (2)
3. Michael Dal Colle (5)
4. Nick Ritchie (7)
5. Brendan Perlini (8)
6. Jared McCann (10)
7. Anthony DeAngelo (14)
8. Ryan MacInnis (20)
9. Robby Fabbri (21)
10. Josh Ho-Sang (22)
11. Nikolai Goldobin (24)
12. Eric Cornel (25)
13. Roland McKeown (27)
14. Brendan Lemieux (28)
15. Nick Magyar (32)
16. Dylan Sadowy (33)
17. Hunter Smith (39)
18. Connor Chatham (46)
19. Michael Bunting (49)
20. Aaron Haydon (54)
21. Blake Siebenaler (55)
22. Alex Peters (56)
23. Spencer Watson (59)
24. Darby Llewellyn (64)
25. Mike Amadio (68)
26. Kyle Jenkins (69)
27. Christian Dvorak (71)
28. Josh Sterk (84)
29. Matthew Mistele (88)
30. Ryan Foss (91)
31. Josh Wesley (111)
32. Santino Centorame (113)
33. Kevin Lebanc (115)
34. Stefan Leblanc (123)
35. Stephen Desrochers (125)
36. Yannick Rathjeb (129)
37. Blake Clarke (134)
38. Patrick Sanvido (140)
39. Niki Petti (143)
40. Jacob Busch (152)
41. Chandler Yakimowicz (153)
42. Jaden Lindo (154)
43. Kyle Pettit (161)
44. Cordell James (165)
45. Stephen Harper (166)
46. Jacob Middleton (172)
47. Brandon Prophet (174)
48. Frank Hora (176)
49. Zach Bratina (186)
50. Alex Lintuniemi (187)
51. Kyle Wood (191)
52. Alexander Mikulovich (192)
53. Bryan Moore (195)
54. Phil Baltisberger (197)
55. Daniel De Sousa (204)

GOALIES

1. Brent Moran (3)
2. Alex Nedeljkovic (4)
3. Brandon Halverson (6)
4. Matthew Mancina (12)
5. Devin Williams (15)
6. Jack Flinn (25)
7. Ken Appleby (27)

HERE (Skaters & Goalies) are the links to the complete lists.

General thoughts...

- Comparing it to the midterm, some of the biggest "risers" are Nick Magyar (52-32), Dylan Sadowy (89-33), Darby Llewellyn (113-64), Hunter Smith (140-39), Josh Sterk (195-89), Santino Centorame (AB-113), Stephen Desrochers (AB-125), and Patrick Sanvido (AB-140).

- Some of the "fallers" were Roland McKeown (15-27), Aaron Haydon (28-54), Alex Peters (36-56), Matt Mistele (51-88), Brandon Prophet (76-174), Nikita Yazkov (77-AB), Jacob Middleton (87-172), Blake Clarke (93-134), Jaden Lindo (96-154), Alexander Mikulovich (108-192), Cristiano DiGiacinto (117-AB), and Nikita Serebryakov (17-AB).

- Comparing it to my own list (at the moment), Jacob Middleton is the one that really stands out. I don't have him incredibly high, but I do think that he deserves to be higher than where CSS has him ranked. It's tough being the top defenseman (as a young player) on a bottom of the standings team.

- Interesting call for CSS to have Brent Moran leapfrog Nedeljkovic. It'll be interesting to see how they both do at the Under 18's. I see the reasoning behind it (size and improvement), but I still prefer Nedeljkovic.

- In terms of absences, I think the biggest surprise is Cristiano DiGiacinto. The suspension at the end of the season hurt, but he brings a lot of things to the table that could make him an attractive selection for NHL clubs.

- I don't agree with Zach Bratina falling as significantly as he did. I actually expected him to be a riser considering how well he has played since the trade to North Bay.

- Otherwise, there weren't a ton of MASSIVE surprises, just minor gripes. In particular, I thought they did a pretty good job with the top 15-20ish (save maybe not having Fabbri higher, but we all knew that he wanted be ranked high on CSS due to his size).

2014 OHL Playoff Predictions: Round Two

The Conference semi-finals kick off tonight so it's time to preview the second round. I went 6-2 in round one, and was only wrong about the two game sevens (Kingston and Niagara).

Here's the Round Two breakdown:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Oshawa Generals vs. 6. Peterborough Petes
Season Series: 5-3 (Oshawa)
My Analysis: This is a dangerous series for Oshawa. They've been off for a while so they could be a bit rusty. Meanwhile, the Petes are riding a major high after that epic comeback against Kingston. These two teams played each other incredibly tough in the second half of the season so this isn't as cut and dry as some people may think. Ultimately, I think this series comes down to offensive depth and goaltending. The Generals are deeper at the forward position and I think that wins them a hard fought series. I also have more faith in Daniel Altshuller, even if Andrew D'Agostini played his arse off in round one. The Gennies take this by winning the majority of their games on home ice, where they dominated the Petes during the regular season.
Prediction: Oshawa in 6

2. North Bay Battalion vs. 4. Barrie Colts
Season Series: 3-3 (TIE)
My Analysis: Another tough one to predict. North Bay clawed their way through a tough first round match up against the Dogs, while the Colts breezed through theirs against the Wolves. Barrie seems to be hitting their stride at the right time (although they did pick apart a disoriented and slumping Sudbury team). Realistically, the Colts are a team who is stronger on paper than they appeared in the standings this year. But they have a huge veteran core and they know what it takes to win. Goaltending is likely a wash between Blackwood/Gibl and Smith. Defense is a wash. So it'll come down to the offense and I think Barrie's veteran group has to be given the advantage there. I look for guys on their OHL swan song, like Athanasiou, Hall, Theoret, to really step up their game and get the Colts back to the Eastern finals.
Prediction: Barrie in 7

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Guelph Storm vs. 4. London Knights
Season Series: 3-3 (TIE)
My Analysis: I feel bad for London, I really do. I mean, they've already got a Memorial Cup bid secured (as hosts), but no one wants to go in through the back door. Unfortunately that's how I see things unfolding. The Knights will be without Stolarz, Bell, and Austin this series. Those three form a critical component to the team's defense. Jake Patterson's development hasn't been terrific this year and he's going to have to be fantastic to stop Guelph's potent offense. I felt like Guelph was probably the stronger team even before all of those injuries/suspensions, so the recent news only puts the icing on the cake for me.
Prediction: Guelph in 5

2. Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds vs. 3. Erie Otters
Season Series: 1-1 (TIE)
My Analysis: I must admit, I'm a bit worried about Erie's goaltending. Their series against Saginaw proved that neither Devin Williams or Oscar Dansk are at the top of their game. The Soo play an up tempo game with a very balanced attack. You won't escape a series against them without solid goaltending. Meanwhile, the Soo have been getting great goaltending all year from Matt Murray and he should be up to the test in stopping the Otters two line attack. This one is so close to call, but I'm leaning towards the Soo. I've underestimated them throughout the year and I really like how their forwards are engaged at both ends of the ice. They'll get better goaltending and I think they play a better team defense than Erie. It'll be tight, but I'm going with my gut instinct here.
Prediction: Sault Ste. Marie in 7

What do you think?

Sunday Top 10: Most Impressive 1997 Born Players

One of the many annual traditions I have on this blog is to rank the new batch of OHL rookies in order of the impression they left on me. Only the "true" OHL rookies have been included, thus why it's labeled the "Most Impressive 1997 born players." However, with the whole exceptional status thing, this means that Connor McDavid will be included on this list (just as Aaron Ekblad was last year). I think it's important to compare these guys to what their age appropriate peers are accomplishing in the league.

I always like to note is that this isn't an early ranking for the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. This ranking isn't the order in which I believe these players should be ranked for the draft, but an order of which players impressed me most. It's not a draft prognostication, it's an acknowledgment of the significant impact these players have had on their teams this season.

As mentioned, this is a tradition, so here are the previous year's lists. 1996. 1995's. 1994's. 1993's. 1992's.

10. Justin Lemcke - Belleville Bulls
There weren't a lot of bright spots on the Bulls this season (despite their late push towards the playoffs). Many of the team's younger players just didn't take the necessary steps forward to make them consistently competitive. However one player did stand out and that was their first round pick, Lemcke. He earned a lot of ice time from George Burnett and was arguably one of the team's most consistent defenders. He seems like a good fit for the big ice in Belleville as his skating ability was noticeable. However, he also defended well and seems to be a heady two-way player with some potential to develop even more of a mean streak along the wall and in front of the net. 

9. Graham Knott - Niagara IceDogs
I loved what I saw from Knott this year as a potential power forward prospect. Not too often you see 16 year olds come into the league and be a big factor physically like Knott was. I really like the energy he brings without the puck as he's constantly buzzing on the forecheck and on the backcheck. He's already someone who's relied upon to kill penalties for Marty Williamson. Offensively, he seems to have good instincts and could develop into a quality goal scorer in close with some added strength.

8. Mitchell Vande Sompel - Oshawa Generals
Tired massively in the second half, but still had a very impressive season for a 16 year old defender. Vande Sompel did a great job jumping right into a powerplay role and has a lot of offensive potential in the OHL. And while he's not the biggest or strongest, I felt like he more than held his own in the defensive end, a reason why D.J. Smith was able to rely on him as much as he did. He certainly has the compete level and desire to succeed despite his lack of size (5'10) on the backend. 

7. Lawson Crouse - Kingston Frontenacs
Had a similar impact in Kingston as Knott did in Niagara. Crouse is a budding power forward prospect. In fact, he might be one of the more physical 16 year old forwards I've seen in the league in recent years. He certainly was not intimidated this year. I particularly liked his physicality in the offensive end, as he put pressure on defenses and really cleared room for his linemates. His shot was also noticeable as he has some definite goal scoring potential moving forward. He's the perfect compliment to this Kingston team moving forward, as he can clear space for some of the smaller, skilled forwards on the team.

6. Nikita Korostelev - Sarnia Sting
While it was often difficult to stand out on a very poor Sarnia team, Korostelev did that more times than not. He's definitely got a high skill level with the puck and is great at extending plays in the offensive end. He's also got a great shot and release which will help him score his share of goals in the league. But perhaps what impressed me most was his tenacity. While this seems to be a still developing part of his game (was inconsistent), at times he was quite physically engaged and didn't back down from mixing it up in the corners or fighting hard in front of the net. If he can harness that aspect of his game, it could separate him from a lot of other highly skilled players in next year's draft.

5. Dylan Strome - Erie Otters
Dylan seems to be a very similar (although larger) player to his brother Ryan. His playmaking ability and ability to see the ice is definitely his most valuable at this point. Like Ryan, he has terrific puck skill and is able to read plays exceptionally well in the offensive end. He'll have to continue to develop his shot though, as this was a big part of Ryan's game too. And like Ryan, Dylan seems to have some skating issues, but Ryan improved that aspect of his game a lot over his OHL career. All in all, Dylan was a very impressive rookie who showed that he's likely to be one of the top centers in the league by the time he graduates.

4. Blake Speers - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
Man, are the Greyhounds drafting well lately. Speers was exceptional as a rookie this year. He's not the biggest guy, but he's always there in front of the net looking for scoring opportunities. Speers is one of those guys that the puck just seems to find near the crease, likely because of his terrific hockey sense. And when he gets it, he's got a great shot and is able to bury the majority of his chances. I also liked the high level of energy he brought in the offensive end, constantly buzzing around and getting his nose dirty. He'll need to continue to add strength because he's not the biggest guy, but he's certainly a very talented offensive player.

3. Mitchell Marner - London Knights
How could you not be impressed by Marner this year? No matter where he slotted in the line-up, whether he got 15 minutes or 5 minutes of ice time, Marner was always involved and noticeable. His speed and tenacity without the puck definitely endears him to the Hunter's and the type of game they like to play. The thing is, when he's able to get the puck and out hustle opponents, he has such terrific vision and is a fantastic playmaker. Anyone who played with Marner this year benefited from his ability to create offensive scoring chances out of very little. It'll be interesting to see where scouts slot him for the draft next year, considering his lack of size (although he did go through a massive growth spurt this year which should see him get close to 6'0 by draft time next year).

2. Travis Konecny - Ottawa 67's
The real deal. Konecny did not disappoint as the first overall pick this year. There are so many things about his game that are extremely noticeable for all the right reasons. Firstly, he's an absolutely dynamic skater who is able to explode up ice and across the blueline. Secondly, even when he's at top speed, he handles the puck incredibly well. Thirdly, his shot, in particular his release, his fantastic. Lastly, his compete level is incredibly high. When he doesn't have the puck, he's still one of the hardest working players on the ice trying to get it. Regardless of whether the 67's were up 4-3 or losing 10-1, his play and intensity never wavered. He deserves a lot of credit for that.

1. Connor McDavid - Erie Otters
What more is there to say about McDavid that hasn't already been said? He's the face of the league already, and rightfully so. Three things make him the most dangerous player on the ice. His speed, his stickhandling, and his ability to do both at the same time. When you throw in how well he thinks the game, it creates the complete offensive package. I really want to see him put the Otters on his back during this playoff drive and at least make the Western Conference finals.

Honorable Mentions

Brett McKenzie - North Bay Battalion
The perfect Stan Butler player. McKenzie is a good sized pivot that already understands how to play at both ends of the ice. He's got a great shot and will score his share of goals in the league, but will need to continue to work hard to upgrade his skating and positioning in order to get himself more scoring chances.

Matt Spencer - Peterborough Petes
I had really high expectations for Spencer this year after watching him in the OHL Cup last year, but I think it's safe to say that he didn't quite meet them. That said, he was significantly better in the second half of the season and has a ton of potential. I thought that he had become a very sturdy player in his own end by the end of the season, using his skating ability and size to keep players in front of him. And he has an understated physical element to his game that I expect to really grow moving forward. I did expect more offensively though.

Adam Craievich - Guelph Storm 
Doesn't play a whole lot, but he's very noticeable when he does. Accepted his role with Guelph and worked hard as an energy player, but you can tell that he's got the potential to be way more than that. His hands are top notch and he's developed well as a cycle player. He's also got a great shot which he doesn't need a lot of room to use. With added ice time next year, he could really explode if paired with a guy like Fabbri or Dickinson.

2014 OHL Playoff Predictions: Round One

The 2014 OHL season wraps up today (with the unfortunately delayed Saginaw/Sault Ste. Marie game) and the playoffs begin later this week. That means it's time for my playoff predictions, as is the tradition on this blog.

Last year I went 12-3, so it'd be nice to have that strong of a record again this year.

Here's the Round One Breakdown:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Oshawa Generals vs. 8. Mississauga Steelheads
Season Series: 3-1 (Oshawa)
My Analysis: Unfortunately for the Steelheads, this one is likely to be a cake walk for the Generals. The Steelheads don't have enough offensive firepower to win a playoff series at this point, especially when going up against a terrific goaltender like Daniel Altshuller. The Generals can not only grind it out, but they've got enough skill to carry them pretty far in the playoffs. If he's on his game, I could see Spencer Martin stealing a game at home, but I think Oshawa takes this one easy.
Prediction: Oshawa in 4

2. North Bay Battalion vs. 7. Niagara IceDogs
Season Series: 3-3 (Tie)
My Analysis: This one will be closer than your average 2 vs 7 match up. I can tell you that the Battalion would have much rather seen the Steelheads here. Niagara has played North Bay incredibly tough this year, including taking the last two matchups with relative ease. The Dogs have a young team, so the playoffs are ultimately a different story, but they certainly have the ability to push the Battalion. In order to win this series, Niagara is going to have to get terrific goaltending from Brent Moran (which has been the case a lot lately), and more scoring from lines 2 through 4. I'm not incredibly confident in North Bay's ability to produce offensively either, but they're certainly more experienced. Except for in net, where Jake Smith is facing the same sort of uphill battle as Moran. In the end, I'm taking the upset on this one. I think Moran plays lights out and the Dogs get enough scoring to take this one in a long series.
Prediction: Niagara in 7

3. Kingston Frontenacs vs. 6. Peterborough Petes
Season Series: 5-1 (Kingston)
My Analysis: Kingston dominated this series, this season. But most of those games were played before the Hunter Garlent trade re-invigorated the Petes. Since then, the teams have split games in two closely contested (and high scoring) matches. I expect every game of this series to be high scoring. It'll be fast paced and not kind to goaltenders. In the end, I think the Fronts have the deeper offensive team and I expect that to be the difference. With the return of Ryan Kujawinski, the Fronts offense looks terrific and the team has become more dangerous. I think he could be the difference maker. Of course, Hockey Canada has to be cheering for Peterborough so that they can get Bennett, Watson, and McKeown for the U18's.
Prediction: Kingston in 6

4. Barrie Colts vs. 5. Sudbury Wolves
Season Series: 5-3 (Sudbury)
My Analysis: The battle of two teams sort of trending in different directions. Barrie has been playing much better in the new calendar year. They were a favourite for the East at the start of the season and are only starting to play like it now. Meanwhile, Sudbury has struggled since they went all in for Faksa and Carrick. A playoff loss in round one would certainly be a disaster for the ownership, management, and fans in Sudbury. I do think this will be a very close series. I see one of two things happening. 1. Sudbury wins because they get stellar goaltending from Palazzese and Barrie doesn't from one of Blackwood/Gibl. 2. Barrie wins because Sudbury continues to have chemistry issues and because their star players (Aaron Ekblad, Athanasiou, Hall, etc) come up huge. I have to go with the hotter team. I think Ekblad is motivated to win this series all by himself.
Prediction: Barrie in 6

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Guelph Storm vs. 8. Plymouth Whalers
Season Series: 3-1 (Guelph)
My Analysis: No offense to the Plymouth Whalers, but I don't think they stand much of a chance in this series, even if Alex Nedeljkovic stands on his head (which I expect him to). I see the terrific, young, Whalers netminder stealing a game for his team, but outside of that the Storm are just too powerful. Guelph's 3rd line might just be more dangerous than Plymouth's top line. It should be a very entertaining and physical series though. The fans will get their moneys worth, even if it's short.
Prediction: Guelph in 5

2. Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds vs. 7. Owen Sound Attack
Season Series: 2-0 (SSM)
My Analysis: Honestly so happy that Saginaw managed to pull one out against the Hounds on Monday to ensure this meeting. This was the series that I wanted to see. A rematch from last year's hotly contested series. Owen Sound got the better of Sault Ste. Marie last year, and I think the shoe will be on the other foot this year. While the Attack work incredibly hard and get the most out of what they have, I don't think they stack up well against this year's Greyhounds. The Soo has the deeper forward group, the better defense, and the better goaltending (even if Brandon Hope has been a terrific surprise this year for Owen Sound). Knowing the Attack, they'll battle and make it close, but I don't see them having the talent to ultimately succeed.
Prediction: Sault Ste. Marie in 5

3. Erie Otters vs. 6. Saginaw Spirit
Season Series: 3-1 (Erie)
My Analysis: Needless to say, the Spirit are going to be amped up for this year's playoffs as they'll no doubt dedicate their performance to the memory of Terry Trafford. They won't make this an easy series on the powerful Otters. That said, we're looking at an Otters team firing on all cylinders right now. They're coming into the playoffs as the league's hottest team. Realistically, the Spirit are outclassed by a pretty wide margin on talent alone. The key will be goaltending. Which Jake Paterson shows up? The usual playoffs Jake Paterson, or the one who battled consistency during the regular season? Even if Jake is on his game, the man at the other end (Dansk) is no slouch. The Spirit will fight and claw and play with heavy hearts, but in the end the talent of the Otters will get them through to the next round.
Prediction: Erie in 6

4. London Knights vs. 5. Windsor Spitfires
Season Series: 5-1 (London)
My Analysis: This might be one of the most one sided 4 vs 5 match-ups that the league has ever seen. That's what happens when one division has three terrific teams (who are all among the best in the entire CHL). Windsor's goaltending and defense (without Slater Koekkoek) just isn't good enough to stop London's four line attack. Since adding Zadorov and Bell, the Knights have looked pretty damn good and if they can get good goaltending from Stolarz, I think they're the favourite to repeat (again) as OHL champs.
Prediction: London in 4

As always, I would love to hear your predictions in the comments section.

2014 OHL Coaches Poll Results

Here are the results of the 2014 OHL Coaches Poll

http://www.ontariohockeyleague.com/article/2013-14-ohl-coaches-poll-winners/160823