Thursday, June 6, 2019

2019 NHL Mock Draft

This is now an annual tradition. As I always mention, while I cover the OHL extensively, I'm a hockey prospect nut in general and as such, have a fair amount of knowledge of the other players available.

This is looking like such a difficult year to predict at the draft. Even within the top two, uncertainty has crept in thanks to the way Kaapo Kakko finished his season. And outside of that, the true mysteries begin at number 3. So many different scenarios. What the Blackhawks do at number 3 will shape the rest of the draft. Obviously, this is a down year for the OHL and that is reflected in my mock draft (at least in the earlier picks). And from a personal stand point, I must admit that I am not the world's biggest fan of this draft crop, in general. I see a lot of potential, but I also see a lot of question marks, even in the projected lottery selections.

Of course, like any mock draft before the culmination of the playoffs...my Stanley Cup prediction is sure to be a conversation piece. 

Here's my first round mock draft.

1. New Jersey Devils - Jack Hughes (USDP, USHL)
Hughes to New Jersey no longer looks like a slam dunk. It is not as obvious as it was once thought to be. Kakko's performance at the World Championships really sold a lot of people. That said, I still think that the Devils go with Hughes. He's far from a polished product physically, yet he has managed to succeed in every way possible thus far. He is such a dynamic player with the puck and is a true franchise center, one of the most difficult things to find at the draft. This gives New Jersey some real flexibility moving forward. They could move Nico Hischier to the wing (as he has struggled to win faceoffs consistently), or allow them to form a terrific one/two punch moving forward.

2. New York Rangers - Kaapo Kakko (TPS Turku, Liiga)
The New York Rangers have the easiest decision here. It's Hughes or Kakko. Either way, they are getting what would appear to be a potential franchise building block. In this scenario, Kakko gives a rebuilding Rangers team another potential offensive star along with the likes of Kravtsov and Chytil. His combination of size, strength, and skill is so impressive. What he was able to do against many NHL players at this year's World Championships was on the same level as Patrik Laine in 2016 and Jaromir Jagr in 1990.

3. Chicago Blackhawks - Alex Turcotte (USDP, USHL)
I think most people feel pretty comfortable with the fact that defender Bowen Byram is the 3rd best player available this year. But an argument could be made that Chicago's top four prospects (if you have Evan Barratt at #5) are all defenders (Boqvist, Jokiharju, Mitchell, Beaudin), thanks to the fact that the team's last three first round picks were defensemen. I know you don't draft based on need, but picking this high for the first time since the Patrick Kane draft (2007), Chicago needs to make sure that they secure one of the top young centers available. For my money, that player is Alex Turcotte. I was so impressed by his tenacity and skill level at the U18's. I know there are some concerns about his injury issues, but this is a kid that could eventually turn into as good of a two-way threat as Jonathan Toews. Doesn't hurt that he's a local kid too.

4. Colorado Avalanche - Bowen Byram (Vancouver, WHL)
Look, I know that Colorado has Cale Makar coming into the fold. And I know that they already have some talented young defenders in the system (like Samuel Girard, Tyson Barrie, and if he gets healthy, Connor Timmins). But I just don't think that Colorado can pass up on the chance to take the 3rd best player available in this draft given how good their young roster already is. It gives them flexibility to move a defender (such as Barrie) to improve other parts of their roster. And Byram was such a force in the WHL this year. His playoff performance for Vancouver was out of this world, leading the WHL playoffs in scoring as a U18 player. Can you imagine a top pairing of Makar and Byram? Good luck NHL.

5. Los Angeles Kings - Matthew Boldy (USDP, USHL)
Probably not the most conventional selection here for Los Angeles. I know that the Kings need young players who can put the puck in the net. I have seen Cole Caufield here in some mock drafts, and it honestly wouldn't shock me one bit. But I'm just not sure I see Los Angeles taking guys like Dach, Cozens, or Zegras here because they profile similarly to the players that LA has drafted the last few years (Kupari, Vilardi, etc). So why Boldy? He strikes me as the type that NHL teams are going to covet more than armchair scouts do. The intangibles that he brings to the ice can not be measured. His hockey IQ and vision with the puck really impressed me at the U18's. As did his awareness in all three zones. I have seen some suggest that they feel Boldy is the type of kid who could win a Selke one day; a Mark Stone type of winger. And I think LA could put a ton of value in that and see Boldy as the perfect compliment to the young players that they have already brought into the fold.

6. Detroit Red Wings - Trevor Zegras (USDP, USHL)
Zegras is the kind of kid who really grows on you the more you see him play. His vision and playmaking ability are among the best in this draft. I know Ryan Wagman (of McKeens) is a massive fan and has seen him a ton this year. Last draft, the Wings finally started to drift away from a tendency to focus on size/physical tools over pure skill. And I think that continues as they try to re-tool and make the franchise a powerhouse of the Eastern Conference again. Zegras is just that, as they take him over slightly larger centers like Cozens and Dach in this scenario.

7. Buffalo Sabres - Kirby Dach (Saskatoon, WHL)
I know that size does not carry the same weight as it used to in the NHL, but it is without a doubt still important, especially when it comes to playoff success. Buffalo's biggest forward on the roster this year was 6'2, and only Eichel and Girgensons were at that mark. At 6'4, Dach has the length that this team could use in the offensive end. The talented playmaker does have some question marks over his consistency, but when he is on, he can be a real X Factor.

8. Edmonton Oilers - Dylan Cozens (Lethbridge, WHL)
One of the top skaters available this year, Cozens seems like the perfect fit for a team that wants to add more offensive talent who can play up tempo. Cozens also possesses the size, at 6'3, that the Oilers could use to help create some room for McDavid and Draisaitl. Whether Edmonton sees Cozens as a center or a winger long term remains to be seen, but he offers size, power, versatility, and skill and IMO is the exact type of player that this organization should be looking to add with their top 10 selection this year.

9. Anaheim Ducks - Cole Caufield (USDP, USHL)
Can the U.S. Under 18 team really have 5 of the first 9 selections this year? Not only is it possible, but it is starting to become quite likely. After breaking the program's goal scoring record this year, and tying Ovechkin's goal mark at the U18's, Caufield has rocketed up draft charts as the top pure goal scorer available. Sure he is undersized, but it has not stopped him yet. To me, it makes sense that the team that finished last in the NHL in goals this year, look to add one of the best goal scorers we have seen come through the draft in years.

10. Vancouver Canucks - Peyton Krebs (Kootenay/Winnipeg, WHL)
Krebs' versatility is going to be very attractive to the Canucks here. He can play center or down the wing. He is equal parts goal scorer and playmaker. He excels in all three zones. Because of how poor his team was in Kootenay this year, scouts had a bit of a tough time getting a read on him. But he performed well at the U18's and looks to be a potential top 6 forward who can be a great option behind Boeser, and Pettersson in the future.

11. Philadelphia Flyers - Philip Broberg (AIK, Allsvenskan)
Without question, Broberg is one of the draft's most polarizing players. There are some, like TSN's Craig Button, who love the raw physical tools that Broberg possesses. There are others, who are not convinced that he possesses the hockey sense and vision to best utilize his gifts. From my own viewings, I would agree that when he is not able to beat defenses with his speed off of the rush, he is less effective. That said, NHL teams are going to see a 6'3 defender who can skate and create with pace and you just know that someone is going to take a chance on him early. I think that team is Philadelphia, who have the prospect pool and young NHL talent to take a chance on a potential game breaker.

12. Minnesota Wild - Alex Newhook (Victoria, BCHL)
Big fan of Alex Newhook. From what I have seen of him this year (U18's, Hlinka camp, isolated clips), I think he possesses some of the highest upside of any player available. His ability to create and process the game at top speed is something that translates well to the NHL level. Sure, there are question marks about his competition in Tier 2, but I think Newhook is legit. After taking some more safe players in recent years, I think Minnesota could stand to take a chance on a high upside player like Newhook. And he's off to Boston College next year with fellow Wild top prospect Jack McBain, so they can keep tabs on him pretty easily.

13. Florida Panthers - Moritz Seider (Adler Mannheim, DEL)
One of the draft's biggest risers late in the year because of the progression he showed in the DEL from start to finish, and because of how well he played for Germany at the World Championships. At 6'4, 200lbs, scouts love Seider's mobility and size package and feel that he could become a very solid top four defender in the future. I know some are not sold on his upside, but he has a real projectable frame and skill set. Florida does have size on the back-end currently, but Seider's mobility could breathe some fresh air into that blueline unit. Could also see Florida looking at Mississauga's Thomas Harley here, as he's an equally mobile defender who they would be very familiar with after keeping tabs on Owen Tippett.

14. Arizona Coyotes - Cam York (USDP, USHL)
Really think that Cam York is a pick that makes sense for the Coyotes, both as a BPA and as someone who fits into their long term needs and plans. His vision, and overall offensive abilities, especially when running the powerplay, would be a great compliment to what Arizona is (might I add) slowly building. I really liked York's game at the U18's. He is not the most flashy defender on the ice, but he has a real quiet effectiveness to his game that I think will translate well.

15. Montreal Canadiens - Vasili Podkolzin (SKA St. Petersburg, MHL)
His current contract in the KHL is likely going to act as a deterrent to some NHL teams picking early. And quite a few teams in the lottery have been spurned by Russian players in recent years. But Montreal looks like a genius in taking Romanov in the second last year, so why not roll the dice on Podkolzin? Patience might be required, but Montreal has drafted extremely well the last two years, which I think allows them to take a chance like this. Podkolzin's size and skill combination are what Montreal has visibly needed on the wing the last few years.

16. Colorado Avalanche - Spencer Knight (USDP, USHL)
I really do think that it is inevitable that Knight is one of those rare goaltenders who goes in the first round. He is such an impressive player. And I do believe that Colorado is one of those teams that could jump on him in the first round with this mid first. They have a deep talent pool and own the 4th overall pick to improve it further. Colorado has taken a goaltender in each of the last three drafts, but I don't think any represent the long term solution for a new Avs starter. Knight could be that guy.

17. Vegas Golden Knights - Arthur Kaliyev (Hamilton, OHL)
The first OHL player off the board ends up as Arthur Kaliyev, a polarizing player in his own right. No one doubts Kaliyev's ability to put the puck in the net and his play with the puck greatly improved this year. But there are doubts about his pace of play and lack of engagement away from the puck. However, with his size and skill, Kaliyev is bound to find one suitor who likes him enough to take him in the first round. Vegas seems like a really good spot for him, considering that they have not been shy when it comes to drafting both OHL players, or players with pace issues. He could potentially fit in really well with their current lineup.

18. Dallas Stars - Thomas Harley (Mississauga, OHL)
While I could see Harley going earlier because of his size, skating ability, and offensive potential, I do also believe that a guy like Seider may have passed him based on what he was able to show at the World Championships. Dallas has been very OHL obsessed in recent years, so this pick could make sense. Harley would give the Stars another young offensive defender to build around beside Heiskanen, Lindell, Klingberg, and a few others. By the time he is ready for a full time role, Klingberg could be a UFA and the team could be looking at some other options. Plus, if you're looking to make a higher upside pick, Harley is your guy. The Thomas Chabot comparisons are apt.

19. Ottawa Senators - Raphael Lavoie (Halifax, QMJHL)
The Senators pick up another big, but skilled forward in Lavoie, who helps to continue to build an obvious team identity based around size and skill up front. With Tkachuk, Batherson, Brown, Norris, White, Formenton, and others already in the mix, Ottawa continues to stock pile forwards. Lavoie is a power forward who had a tremendous playoff run with Halifax this year, helping them reach the QMJHL finals and the Memorial Cup finals.

20. New York Rangers - Victor Soderstrom (Brynas IF, SHL)
Look, I know that the Rangers just picked up a fellow talented offensive blueliner in Adam Fox, but if Soderstrom is still around when they select with Winnipeg's first, I think that they jump at the chance to draft him. In today's NHL, you can never have too many puck movers from the back-end and Soderstrom is considered one of the better ones available this year. However, he is also solid in his own end and gives the Rangers another young blueliner to build around (with Fox, Miller, Lundkvist, Hajek, and some others). Plus, at 20, he has to be considered the best player available.

21. Pittsburgh Penguins - Egor Afanasyev (Muskegon, USHL)
The first time in the last 5 years that Pittsburgh has a first round pick and it shows in their prospect pool; by far one of the weakest in the NHL. As such, they really need to target a player, especially at forward, who has the highest ceiling. And at 21, that player could be Egor Afanaysev, an extremely talented and skilled player with the puck who had a terrific season in the USHL. There are some concerns over his play without the puck and one dimensional nature, but his power game and skill level are going to be highly coveted.

22. Los Angeles Kings - Philip Tomasino (Niagara, OHL)
Goes without saying that Tomasino is one of my favourite players available this year. His 5 on 5 production was second to none in the CHL among draft eligibles and he plays with the pace that you like to see today. His first step quickness is fantastic and it makes him such a strong asset in any situation. His skill with the puck is greatly underrated too. Having drafted his teammate Akil Thomas last year, the Kings would be very familiar with Tomasino and what he is capable of.

23. New York Islanders - Ville Heinola (Lukkp, Liiga)
Similar to Soderstrom, Heinola is a guy that I have falling a little bit from the mid first round range most seem to have him going. I just see teams gravitating more towards the Broberg, Seider, Harley types who are raw, but ooze potential thanks to their size/mobility combination. In Heinola, the Islanders pick up a quality two-way defender who projects as a top four defender, and who probably can step into an NHL lineup relatively soon after playing against men all year in Finland.

24. Nashville Predators - Brett Leason (Prince Albert, WHL)
I'm still not entirely convinced that Leason, a '99 in his final year of eligibility, goes in the first round. But this just seems like a good fit. Nashville really seems to love taking players like Leason, a kid who can use power and speed to create offense, and who has versatility as to what position they develop him at. Additionally, Leason gives Nashville someone who can step into their lineup very soon, perhaps as early as next year. The team is edging close to cap trouble and needs to start getting contributions from younger, cheaper forwards. Drafting an NHL ready, or close to it, forward makes sense.

25. Washington Capitals - Jamieson Rees (Sarnia, OHL)
What? The Capitals take another OHL player? The team had ignored the league for so long before taking Kody Clark in the second last year. But Rees seems like the type of player that Washington would target to help them become more difficult to play against in the long run. There are some durability and size concerns with Rees, given his tenacious style of play, but he can have such a positive impact on the ice (see this year's U18's) and possesses way more offensive upside than some people give him credit for.

26. Calgary Flames - Albin Grewe (Djurgardens, SHL/SuperElit)
Calgary has not used a top 3 round pick on a forward in the last two drafts (partially because they didn't have one last year). So the Flames select ball of energy Albin Grewe. This is a kid who plays the game hard, but who also possesses some offensive talent. He just screams Western Conference playoff performer and recently compared himself to Brad Marchand at the Combine.

27. Tampa Bay Lightning - Ryan Suzuki (Barrie, OHL)
Tampa is an organization that puts a premium on vision and hockey sense at the forward position. And Suzuki is one of the top playmakers available this year. His ability to control the half wall on the powerplay and dictate pace 5 on 5 is terrific. He needs to become more assertive physically and learn to attack the middle of the ice more, but as he matures physically, this is something that could easily develop.

28. Carolina Hurricanes - Ryan Johnson (Sioux Falls, USHL)
Johnson had interviews with every single NHL team at this year's combine, which proves that he is the type of kid who could go higher in the draft than some are predicting. He is the modern day NHL defender who possesses great feet, a good head for the game, and abilities at both ends of the ice. He may not have the potential of some other defenders available this year, but he seems like a very safe bet to develop into a long time NHL defender. I could see a team like Carolina being very interested in him, based on the way that they like their defenders to play.

29. Anaheim Ducks - Vladislav Kolyachonok (Flint, OHL)
I really do believe that Kolyachonok is going to be a first rounder. He is such a dedicated, focused, and mature kid. I am positive that he really impressed teams in his combine interviews. And he closed out the season exceptionally well at the U18's with Belarus. Like Johnson, his mobility and two-way sense are going to make him an NHL defender. I feel like Kolyachonok is the type of defender that Anaheim could look to add with one of their two first round selections this year.

30. Boston Bruins - Samuel Fagemo (Frolunda, SHL)
Look, I know that it seems far fetched to have two re-entry candidates go in the first round. But these are special cases. What Fagemo just did in Sweden this year was pretty remarkable. Top 10 season all time, in terms of point production, for a U19 player in the SHL. The other 9 players on that list, the vast majority became NHL stars (Sedin x2, Naslund, Forsberg, Sandstrom, Lindholm, Backstrom). He outproduced St. Louis first rounder Dominik Bokk, who had a good season in his own right. Boston is a team that has looked to Sweden several times in recent years with high selections and I could see them coveting the talented offensive winger. Boston really could use his injection of skill and potential on the wing, in their prospect pool.

31. Buffalo Sabres - John Beecher (USDP, USHL)
Guys like Beecher don't grow on trees. 6'3 center who is among the best skaters in this draft. I thought he was fantastic at the U18's this year, using his speed and energy to attack and disrupt. The U of Michigan commit may not have the highest of upsides, but he seems like a safe bet to develop into a 2nd or 3rd line center down the road. Beecher is the type of player that you win in the playoffs with now and I think an NHL team will jump on him in round one. Buffalo is a team that makes a lot of sense to me. His size and speed down the middle, and physical aggressiveness are things that they could really use in their organization.

---------------------------------------------------------------

32. Ottawa Senators - Bobby Brink (Sioux City, USHL)
To kick off the second round, Ottawa selects Brink, a smaller, yet offensively skilled forward. He had a great year in the USHL (and Internationally for the U.S.) and possesses one of the best releases in the draft. Concerns over his lack of size and skating keep him out of the first.

33. Los Angeles Kings - Tobias Bjornfot (Djurgardens, SuperElit)
Bjornfot is definitely a kid who could go in the first round, but I was not sold at the U18's, where turnovers were a bit of an issue. LA grabs someone with definite top four potential who helps to elevate their blueline prospect group.

34. New Jersey Devils - Samuel Poulin (Sherbrooke, QMJHL)
Another kid who seems to be projected for the first round by most scouting agencies. But I'm not sure he has the offensive upside that teams may want from a winger in the first. But competitive kid who would be an excellent pick in this range.

35. Detroit Red Wings - Nicholas Robertson (Peterborough, OHL)
Robertson is easily one of the most individually talented players available this year. He's also one of the youngest, which means he's got some physical maturing to do. Could really see Detroit swinging for the fences on him here, adding a high upside forward.

36. Carolina Hurricanes - Connor McMichael (London, OHL)
One of the smartest players available, McMichael screams Carolina Hurricane. He is also one of the best skaters available. Consistency can be a bit of an issue, and I'm not sure he sticks down the middle. But at this range, grabbing a potential top 9 forward is great.

37. Carolina Hurricanes - Pyotr Kochetkov (HK Ryazan, VHL)
At this point, I would expect Carolina to grab a goaltender with one of these two selections, hoping to improve their organizational depth. Kochetkov, a '99 re-entry, was a breakout star at this year's WJC's and he is someone who most definitely possesses the potential to develop into an NHL starting netminder. More than likely, he could push Alex Nedeljkovic now for the goalie of the future tag.

38. Edmonton Oilers - Patrik Puistola (Leki, Mestis)
One of the top goal scorers available this year, Puistola was a breakout star at this year's U18's. Lord knows how Edmonton has searched for someone to slot beside Connor McDavid. Maybe that's Puistola in a few years?

39. Anaheim Ducks - Brayden Tracey (Moose Jaw, WHL)
A late season riser, Tracey has proven to be a great complimentary scoring winger because of his understanding of how to move without the puck, and because of his skill level below the dots. Anaheim grabs another winger after taking Caufield earlier.

40. Vancouver Canucks - Nils Hoglander (Rogle, SHL)
Undersized, but highly skilled, Hoglander is a magician with the puck who possesses a ton of offensive upside. I think Vancouver would love to add more individual puck skill to their young core and roll the dice here. He had a great combine performance and I know there is a lot of chatter that he goes higher than this.

41. Philadelphia Flyers - Matthew Robertson (Edmonton, WHL)
I know the Flyers took Broberg earlier, but it is not uncommon at all for teams to use both of their top picks on defenders. But these two guys couldn't be more different. Robertson is a safer pick, but one who could still develop into a minute eating top 4 guy at the NHL level.

42. Minnesota Wild - Jakob Pelletier (Moncton, QMJHL)
A bit of a fall for Pelletier, who is a projected first rounder on most lists. But I've read and heard some concerns over his pace for a smaller winger. But Minnesota could use a winger with his skill and offensive potential and grab him before he falls further.

43.Chicago Blackhawks - Nikita Alexandrov (Charlottetown, QMJHL)
A massively underrated prospect for 2019 IMO. Alexandrov didn't have a ton of help in Charlottetown this year, but he's a real work horse with offensive potential. He seems to be really trending up on most lists as we draw near to the draft.

44. Ottawa Senators - Mads Sogaard (Medicine Hat, WHL)
MASSIVE goaltender (6'7) who hails from Denmark but plays in the WHL. Ottawa is a team that I think will look to draft a goaltender early this year to improve their organizational depth. And Sogaard is very highly regarded.

45. Arizona Coyotes - Robert Mastrosimone (Chicago, USHL)
Undersized, but well rounded forward who had a terrific year (and playoffs) in the USHL. I know there are some concerns over his skating and his lack of size, but the Boston U commit is just one of those heady players who produces at every level.

46. Montreal Canadiens - Marshall Warren (USDP, USHL)
The left shot defender that Montreal Canadiens fans (and probably brass) want to add to the prospect stable. Warren is a solid two-way defender who is committed to Boston College next year.

47. Colorado Avalanche - Ilya Nikolayev (Loko Yaroslav, MHL)
Well rounded center who was solid internationally for Russia this year. Maybe doesn't possess the upside of some others, but looks like a safe bet to be a top 9 forward in the NHL.

48. Vegas Golden Knights - Lassi Thomson (Kelowna, WHL)
Thomson falls a bit from that late first, early second range that most seem to have him in. He skates well and has a big shot, but I have seen some concerns over his defensive awareness and vision with the puck as a distributor. Nic Hague worked out well for Vegas, so I think this BPA selection makes sense.

49. New York Rangers - Karl Henriksson (Frolunda, SuperElit)
Undersized playmaking center who was terrific at the U18's in helping Sweden take home the gold medal. Not afraid to get his nose dirty and plays bigger than his size. A solid long term play here by NYR.

50. Montreal Canadiens - Ronnie Attard (Tri-City, USHL)
Western Michigan commit is in his final year of draft eligibility, but he broke the USHL record for goals by a defender in a season and was terrific in leading the U.S. at the World Junior A Championships. Seems like a 're-entry' defender goes in the second every year now and I think Attard would be a great addition to the Canadiens future blueline corp.

No comments: