It's that time again! The 2019/20 season starts this week so it's time to make some predictions.
At this point, I see the Eastern Conference as having three tiers. The first tier is made up of Ottawa, Sudbury, Peterborough, and Oshawa. I think any of these teams could end up first in the East and in their respective divisions. Then you have the second tier made up of Barrie, Mississauga, Hamilton, Niagara, and North Bay. These teams have some holes or youth filled lineups that could cause them to be inconsistent, but they should still be competitive and push for the playoffs. Then we have the third tier which is Kingston. Love the Frontenacs draft in 2019, but this is a young team that will still face an uphill battle. Shane Wright is terrific, but I don't think he helps the Frontenacs make the playoffs.
At this point, I see the Eastern Conference as having three tiers. The first tier is made up of Ottawa, Sudbury, Peterborough, and Oshawa. I think any of these teams could end up first in the East and in their respective divisions. Then you have the second tier made up of Barrie, Mississauga, Hamilton, Niagara, and North Bay. These teams have some holes or youth filled lineups that could cause them to be inconsistent, but they should still be competitive and push for the playoffs. Then we have the third tier which is Kingston. Love the Frontenacs draft in 2019, but this is a young team that will still face an uphill battle. Shane Wright is terrific, but I don't think he helps the Frontenacs make the playoffs.
1. Ottawa 67's (East Division Champions)
Heading into the season, the defending Eastern Conference Champions are not without question marks. This is a team that has lost a lot of veteran talent at forward (Chmelevski, Clark, Maksimovich, Felhaber, etc) and replacing those goals is going to be difficult. Yes, the team's first line nearly returns intact with Rossi and Keating flanked by someone like Graeme Clarke. But secondary scoring is a big mystery right now. Can Cam Tolnai, Jack Quinn, and Mitchell Hoelscher take those next steps forward? Can the team's terrific 2019 draft class make an immediate impact? No doubt, this team will end up bringing in veterans at forward if they are as competitive as they should be. Where the team does not have concerns is on defense and in net. The 67's will return their entire defense from last year and that group will be even stronger this year. Cedrick Andree is also back and he proved to be a capable starter who could steal games early in the year. They held the OHL to the lowest goals against per game then and that has a chance of being repeated. So while I do have some concerns with how consistently the 67's can put pucks in the net, at least to start, I have no concerns about how effective they will be defensively. As such, I think they have to enter the year at the favourite to recapture the Eastern Conference.
Heading into the season, the defending Eastern Conference Champions are not without question marks. This is a team that has lost a lot of veteran talent at forward (Chmelevski, Clark, Maksimovich, Felhaber, etc) and replacing those goals is going to be difficult. Yes, the team's first line nearly returns intact with Rossi and Keating flanked by someone like Graeme Clarke. But secondary scoring is a big mystery right now. Can Cam Tolnai, Jack Quinn, and Mitchell Hoelscher take those next steps forward? Can the team's terrific 2019 draft class make an immediate impact? No doubt, this team will end up bringing in veterans at forward if they are as competitive as they should be. Where the team does not have concerns is on defense and in net. The 67's will return their entire defense from last year and that group will be even stronger this year. Cedrick Andree is also back and he proved to be a capable starter who could steal games early in the year. They held the OHL to the lowest goals against per game then and that has a chance of being repeated. So while I do have some concerns with how consistently the 67's can put pucks in the net, at least to start, I have no concerns about how effective they will be defensively. As such, I think they have to enter the year at the favourite to recapture the Eastern Conference.
2. Sudbury Wolves (Central Division Champions)
No doubt, Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen was a huge part of Sudbury's success last year. He helped to carry a younger club to home ice advantage in the first round. But this Wolves team is largely intact from last year and led by some terrific young players who are bound to improve by leaps and bounds. Quinton Byfield is a star. I think he is going to have an absolutely dynamite year that sees him push for the OHL scoring title. Their young defense has some real standouts like Liam Ross, Jack Thompson, and Isaak Phillips. And they have some great veterans up front who can provide grit, scoring, and two-way play (Carson, Bulitka, Hutcheson, Levin, etc). I'm also interested to see how Leafs' draft pick Kalle Loponen elevates their defense group. Adding Christian Purboo as the team's starting goaltender was a real savvy move too, after Canadiens' draft pick Frederik Dichow was a no show to camp. I don't think Purboo can match UPL's greatness, but the team around him is better and he just has to be "good enough." I also see the Central Division being a little worse than the East, which means some easier division matchups.
No doubt, Ukka-Pekka Luukkonen was a huge part of Sudbury's success last year. He helped to carry a younger club to home ice advantage in the first round. But this Wolves team is largely intact from last year and led by some terrific young players who are bound to improve by leaps and bounds. Quinton Byfield is a star. I think he is going to have an absolutely dynamite year that sees him push for the OHL scoring title. Their young defense has some real standouts like Liam Ross, Jack Thompson, and Isaak Phillips. And they have some great veterans up front who can provide grit, scoring, and two-way play (Carson, Bulitka, Hutcheson, Levin, etc). I'm also interested to see how Leafs' draft pick Kalle Loponen elevates their defense group. Adding Christian Purboo as the team's starting goaltender was a real savvy move too, after Canadiens' draft pick Frederik Dichow was a no show to camp. I don't think Purboo can match UPL's greatness, but the team around him is better and he just has to be "good enough." I also see the Central Division being a little worse than the East, which means some easier division matchups.
3. Peterborough Petes
I know one of the things that OHL teams use to predict success heading into the next year is returning goals from 18 and 19 year old players (discounting OA's). Peterborough has among the highest number in this regard of any OHL team, let alone the Eastern Conference. They should score goals and have the ability to roll three solid scoring lines that blend experience and youth. They also have some room to make deals with only two OA's on the roster currently (Gallant and the recently acquired Jacob Paquette). I expect Nick Robertson to have an absolutely massive year and I also expect Cameron Butler and Liam Kirk to have breakout seasons. In goal, Hunter Jones is one of the OHL's best. His second half wasn't great, but he should be better equipped to deal with in season fatigue now that he has a full year of starting under his belt. I am concerned about their defense; no question. IMO, Declan Chisholm is the only legitimate top three OHL defender on the roster, with Paquette being more of a quality #4. And I am concerned about the trade distractions swirling around the team (Merkley, possibly SDA). But this team is too talented to not succeed on some level. And, again, they have some pieces to trade (such as three second round picks in 2020) that could elevate them to near top of the conference status.
4. Oshawa Generals
When you don't get consistent goaltending in this league, no matter how talented your roster is, wins can be hard to come by. Just ask the Owen Sound Attack the last few years (which is ironic considering their recent deal). No doubt, the Oshawa Generals have a great make-up at forward and on defense. Vallati, Brewer, Gross, Moore, and Ennis is as solid a top 5 group as you'll find in the Eastern Conference. And the team's top two lines consisting of McShane, Neumann, Noel, Tullio, Antropov, and Suni will be dynamite. But depth up front is an issue, as the Generals will be relying on a mishmash of unproven talent in this area. This can be addressed through trade if Oshawa decides to go for it. That brings us to the goaltending dilemma. Aidan Hughes is still around as an OA goaltender, but he has yet to prove himself as a competent starter. And Sbrocca/Paputsakis have a combined zero OHL starts. Meanwhile new acquisition Andrew MacLean had a very up and down rookie year in Owen Sound and is far from a sure thing. And unfortunately for the Generals, the OHL goaltending market is razor thin right now. So if the goaltending falters, as expected, does Oshawa sell off some talent to regroup for next year? It's a serious possibility. But as far as preseason predictions go, I do think that the Generals need to be rated this high even with some holes.
When you don't get consistent goaltending in this league, no matter how talented your roster is, wins can be hard to come by. Just ask the Owen Sound Attack the last few years (which is ironic considering their recent deal). No doubt, the Oshawa Generals have a great make-up at forward and on defense. Vallati, Brewer, Gross, Moore, and Ennis is as solid a top 5 group as you'll find in the Eastern Conference. And the team's top two lines consisting of McShane, Neumann, Noel, Tullio, Antropov, and Suni will be dynamite. But depth up front is an issue, as the Generals will be relying on a mishmash of unproven talent in this area. This can be addressed through trade if Oshawa decides to go for it. That brings us to the goaltending dilemma. Aidan Hughes is still around as an OA goaltender, but he has yet to prove himself as a competent starter. And Sbrocca/Paputsakis have a combined zero OHL starts. Meanwhile new acquisition Andrew MacLean had a very up and down rookie year in Owen Sound and is far from a sure thing. And unfortunately for the Generals, the OHL goaltending market is razor thin right now. So if the goaltending falters, as expected, does Oshawa sell off some talent to regroup for next year? It's a serious possibility. But as far as preseason predictions go, I do think that the Generals need to be rated this high even with some holes.
5. Barrie Colts
This is where it really starts to get interesting in the East and I think Barrie is the team that could surprise and make the most noise. Yes, I know Dale Hawerchuk is no longer the coach and Warren Rychel has been brought in. That could mess with chemistry, or at the very least cause the team to get off to a bit of a slow start. But I really like the make up of this group. Between Jet Greaves and Canucks' pick Arturs Silovs, one of them should provide quality goaltending and emerge as the starter. I think Brandt Clarke is an immediate impact player and joins Tyler Tucker to form a dynamite one/two punch likely spread out among two pairings. And while I think the offense may go through some peaks and valleys because of their youth, there are enough veterans sprinkled in there (Tortora, Willms, Pekar, Suzuki, Bignell) to help steady the ship. The forward group will also bring a lot of intensity and I think this group will be a tough one to play against. Ryan Suzuki is probably the real catalyst here. This team will go only as far as he can take them this year because they will need him to emerge as a consistent first line center. If he takes those steps forward, he could help the Colts secure home ice in the first round.
This is where it really starts to get interesting in the East and I think Barrie is the team that could surprise and make the most noise. Yes, I know Dale Hawerchuk is no longer the coach and Warren Rychel has been brought in. That could mess with chemistry, or at the very least cause the team to get off to a bit of a slow start. But I really like the make up of this group. Between Jet Greaves and Canucks' pick Arturs Silovs, one of them should provide quality goaltending and emerge as the starter. I think Brandt Clarke is an immediate impact player and joins Tyler Tucker to form a dynamite one/two punch likely spread out among two pairings. And while I think the offense may go through some peaks and valleys because of their youth, there are enough veterans sprinkled in there (Tortora, Willms, Pekar, Suzuki, Bignell) to help steady the ship. The forward group will also bring a lot of intensity and I think this group will be a tough one to play against. Ryan Suzuki is probably the real catalyst here. This team will go only as far as he can take them this year because they will need him to emerge as a consistent first line center. If he takes those steps forward, he could help the Colts secure home ice in the first round.
6. Mississauga Steelheads
This isn't the most innately skilled group in the Conference. But I like their potential to prevent goals and I think that they will bring a lot of energy and tenacity to the ice that could make them surprisingly dangerous. Their defense is a potential strength with Harley, Ham, and Davis making up a terrific top three. Then it's just a matter of one of Penman, Del Mastro, Bjorgvik-Holm stepping up and securing that fourth spot. And I really liked the team's acquisition of Kai Edmonds. I think he can be a solid starter this year and next year (as an OA). The question is, will they score enough? They will rely heavily on their 2001's and 2002's to provide the bulk of the offense and that can be dangerous in a league dominated by 19 and 20 year olds. But that group blossomed in the second half with Tippett and McLeod out of the picture. I think that they can continue to grow and use their speed and physicality to wear down some defenses. Like the other teams in this range, they could be 5th to 9th and I wouldn't be surprised either way.
This isn't the most innately skilled group in the Conference. But I like their potential to prevent goals and I think that they will bring a lot of energy and tenacity to the ice that could make them surprisingly dangerous. Their defense is a potential strength with Harley, Ham, and Davis making up a terrific top three. Then it's just a matter of one of Penman, Del Mastro, Bjorgvik-Holm stepping up and securing that fourth spot. And I really liked the team's acquisition of Kai Edmonds. I think he can be a solid starter this year and next year (as an OA). The question is, will they score enough? They will rely heavily on their 2001's and 2002's to provide the bulk of the offense and that can be dangerous in a league dominated by 19 and 20 year olds. But that group blossomed in the second half with Tippett and McLeod out of the picture. I think that they can continue to grow and use their speed and physicality to wear down some defenses. Like the other teams in this range, they could be 5th to 9th and I wouldn't be surprised either way.
7. Hamilton Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are going to score goals. Arthur Kaliyev is going to have another monster season. I think Jan Jenik breaks out and emerges as an OHL star. Logan Morrison is going to have a great draft year. And there are some nice supporting pieces in place. But, I do really think that Hamilton is going to struggle keeping the puck out of their net. I'm not confident in their young goaltenders being ready to face a barrage. And I think this defense lacks strength and assertiveness in their own end. If the Bulldogs want to win consistently, they will need to win a lot of 5-4 games. And that's never a recipe for success in this league. Now, of course, the defense could end up being better than we anticipate. Ditto for the goaltending. And if Hamilton is scoring like I think they can, they could be a dangerous team. But I think more likely they end up hovering around the middle part of the Conference and explore the option of trading guys like Kaliyev, Nurse, Landry, and Jenik to help the rebuild post Championship.
8. North Bay Battalion
A lot of North Bay's success is going to be reliant on Joe Vrbetic. The talented young netminder is going to see a ton of rubber with a relatively inexperienced defense in front of him. But, I do think that he is a legitimate star in the making and will be able to steal his share of games, even in his rookie year. I also think that North Bay has enough weapons at forward to score their share of goals. Matthew Struthers should have a big OA year. And between he and Mason Primeau, both scoring lines have the size to dominate down low. I'm looking at Brandon Coe to have a good draft year and for Liam Arnsby and Kyle Jackson to have strong rookie seasons. Again, this defense is going to give up shots and goals, but I don't see North Bay really selling off assets the way Niagara will and it should give them the advantage in the second half.
The Bulldogs are going to score goals. Arthur Kaliyev is going to have another monster season. I think Jan Jenik breaks out and emerges as an OHL star. Logan Morrison is going to have a great draft year. And there are some nice supporting pieces in place. But, I do really think that Hamilton is going to struggle keeping the puck out of their net. I'm not confident in their young goaltenders being ready to face a barrage. And I think this defense lacks strength and assertiveness in their own end. If the Bulldogs want to win consistently, they will need to win a lot of 5-4 games. And that's never a recipe for success in this league. Now, of course, the defense could end up being better than we anticipate. Ditto for the goaltending. And if Hamilton is scoring like I think they can, they could be a dangerous team. But I think more likely they end up hovering around the middle part of the Conference and explore the option of trading guys like Kaliyev, Nurse, Landry, and Jenik to help the rebuild post Championship.
8. North Bay Battalion
A lot of North Bay's success is going to be reliant on Joe Vrbetic. The talented young netminder is going to see a ton of rubber with a relatively inexperienced defense in front of him. But, I do think that he is a legitimate star in the making and will be able to steal his share of games, even in his rookie year. I also think that North Bay has enough weapons at forward to score their share of goals. Matthew Struthers should have a big OA year. And between he and Mason Primeau, both scoring lines have the size to dominate down low. I'm looking at Brandon Coe to have a good draft year and for Liam Arnsby and Kyle Jackson to have strong rookie seasons. Again, this defense is going to give up shots and goals, but I don't see North Bay really selling off assets the way Niagara will and it should give them the advantage in the second half.
9. Niagara IceDogs
Depth is going to be this team's biggest issue this year. They obviously still have Akil Thomas, Phil Tomasino, and some nice pieces on the back-end (Roberts, Hunter). But this is, without a doubt, a team in the middle of a rebuild year after dealing so many assets recently to make their push. As such, I'm operating under the impression that the four guys that I just named could all see themselves dealt at some point this year so that Niagara can recoup some of those assets and move forward with a strong group of 2002 and 2003 born players. They already moved Paquette so the others are probably on borrowed time. Additionally, Christian Sbaraglia is the veteran in net and he has played a total of 4 OHL games. Considering the amount of youth being employed, there are bound to be a lot of quality scoring chances given up as these players adjust and grow. And such green goaltenders are going to have a tough time adjusting to seeing so many scoring chances against them. In the second half of the OHL season, Kingston may end up being better than the IceDogs if they sell like I expect.
Depth is going to be this team's biggest issue this year. They obviously still have Akil Thomas, Phil Tomasino, and some nice pieces on the back-end (Roberts, Hunter). But this is, without a doubt, a team in the middle of a rebuild year after dealing so many assets recently to make their push. As such, I'm operating under the impression that the four guys that I just named could all see themselves dealt at some point this year so that Niagara can recoup some of those assets and move forward with a strong group of 2002 and 2003 born players. They already moved Paquette so the others are probably on borrowed time. Additionally, Christian Sbaraglia is the veteran in net and he has played a total of 4 OHL games. Considering the amount of youth being employed, there are bound to be a lot of quality scoring chances given up as these players adjust and grow. And such green goaltenders are going to have a tough time adjusting to seeing so many scoring chances against them. In the second half of the OHL season, Kingston may end up being better than the IceDogs if they sell like I expect.
10. Kingston Frontenacs
Look, Kingston will not be as bad as they were last year, when the Frontenacs had one of the worst offenses that the OHL has ever seen. They will win more games. I look for Billy Constantinou and Jake Murray to breakout on the back-end and Jakob Brahaney will be around long enough to be a veteran presence. Of course, all eyes will also be on the exceptional Shane Wright, even if he won't have a ton of help. But the Fronts have drafted well the last couple of years and it seems likely that a few of Kingston's 2002's and 2003's should breakout up front. In net, Ryan Dugas will look to bounce back from injury and establish himself as an OHL starter and the Fronts goaltender who can see this rebuild through. There will be a lot of ugly nights again, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.
Look, Kingston will not be as bad as they were last year, when the Frontenacs had one of the worst offenses that the OHL has ever seen. They will win more games. I look for Billy Constantinou and Jake Murray to breakout on the back-end and Jakob Brahaney will be around long enough to be a veteran presence. Of course, all eyes will also be on the exceptional Shane Wright, even if he won't have a ton of help. But the Fronts have drafted well the last couple of years and it seems likely that a few of Kingston's 2002's and 2003's should breakout up front. In net, Ryan Dugas will look to bounce back from injury and establish himself as an OHL starter and the Fronts goaltender who can see this rebuild through. There will be a lot of ugly nights again, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.
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