Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Preseason Top 30 for the 2022 NHL Draft

Man...I thought last year's preseason list was difficult to make! This year, it was damn near impossible because these young men haven't even played in the OHL yet due to last season's cancellation. But I do think that this exercise is an important one (for fun, here's the 2021 preseason list).

So how did I make this list? Thankfully I actually saw a lot of this group in their OHL draft year, so I have that to go off of. We also have a few performances from the last few months. The first being the few players who played at the PBHH. The second being the Hockey Canada U18 Summer Camp (with only a few of the scrimmages streamed). The third, for a select few, we have Hlinka/Gretzky Cup performances. That said there are so many variables to consider...that simply can not be considered. Which players worked the hardest to get themselves in the best shape possible the last 18 months to be ready for this season? Which players went through growth spurts? How will players fit into their OHL lineups with two years worth of Priority selections and Import selections vying for roster spots? In most years, my preseason list is actually somewhat similar to my final list (with obvious exceptions who move up and down). This year? I expect it to look completely different in May/June. So many of these young men are going to look like way different hockey players at the end of the year compared to the start because of last year's debacle.

I have already been asked a bunch about the strength of this OHL crop. It's not a question that we can answer right now. Coming out of U16, I felt like this group was only average, with the group's best player (Adam Fantilli, 2023 eligible due to a late birthday) opting to head south of the border. Obviously, that's not including Shane Wright who was granted exceptional status the year prior. How will a lost year of development, essentially, impact that? Again, too many variables to consider to give a truthful and reliable answer to that question. But one thing is for sure, it will be great to have the OHL back! Bring on the 2022 draft season!

Here's my early list: 

1. Shane Wright - Center - Kingston Frontenacs
Honestly, what more can you say about Wright that hasn't already been said? He is going to be the first overall pick in 2022 and you can take that to the bank. He is the most intelligent and polished prospect that I have seen come through the OHL. Yes, that includes Connor McDavid. And no, Wright is not at talented as McDavid from an offensive perspective. But Wright's two-way play and off the puck play is ahead of where McDavid's was at the same age. He is that smart. Wright is a prospect with no flaws. Everything in his toolbox is above average or elite. The one thing I do worry about is that Wright is a little different than your average first overall phenom. He's not flashy. He's not McDavid. He's not Sidney Crosby. He's not Austen Matthews or Alex Ovechkin. He does take a few viewings to truly appreciate. I've already seen some say (when I say seen, I'm talking about social media), "he was really disappointing at the Hockey Canada scrimmages." Shane Wright is the kind of player who can look pretty quiet to the naked eye, but ends up with 2-3 points in the boxscore. There are so many subtle nuances to his approach and it takes a few viewings (especially live) to truly appreciate how good he is. I feel like he could fall victim to "overscouting" (the notion of the scouting community dissecting and nitpicking components of his game) because he lacks that flash. It happened to John Tavares in his draft year. I hope it does not though! Look for Wright to be a top 5 scorer in the OHL this season.
 
2. Bryce McConnell-Barker - Center/Wing - Soo Greyhounds
To me, BMB is the kind of player that has a real chance to be the second OHL player taken behind Shane Wright this year. It is easy to see his game being very adaptable to the NHL, even at a young age. He's a reliable two-way center with high end skating ability and goal scoring ability. Those are the types of players that are always highly coveted at the NHL draft. McConnell-Barker is an aggressive forechecker and the type of player who always seems to keep his feet moving in all three zones. A lack of effort without the puck is not an issue. He also has a great shot. He can shoot from a standstill. He can let it rip flying down the wing. Ultimately, I want to see how he is utilized this year by the Greyhounds. Will they have him play center or will he play the wing to start to take advantage of his speed and forechecking ability? How good are the hands, especially when the pace increases? Can he be an offensive focal point with the puck on his stick? I have a lot of faith in the Soo's development program and I think he is a great fit for how they like to play. 
 
3. Gavin Hayes - Wing - Flint Firebirds
Come on...you had to see this coming. You know that Hayes is exactly the type of player that I love. This is a throwback power forward. He has size. He has skill. His skating can be an asset, especially in terms of his ability to take the puck East/West, an uncommon quality in players of his ilk. The key for him will be finding that balance between his physicality and his offensive responsibilities and production. Young power forwards can have a difficult time blending that when they come into the league. They run around trying to hit everyone and their offensive production suffers as they become more complementary/secondary pieces. The one thing that I am really hoping for is that Flint plays he and Othmann on the same line at times. Talk about chaos. Literally the "Bash Brothers." 

4. Paul Ludwinski - Center - Kingston Frontenacs
My reasoning for ranking Ludwinski here is similar to what I described with McConnell-Barker. I see Ludwinski as the type of strong skating, two-way center that NHL teams covet at the draft. As a U16 player with the Marlboros, I really loved his decision making with the puck in traffic, working give and go's, sliding in and out of coverage. Everything was done with speed and precision. I thought Ludwinski was one of the stronger OHL players in those U20 Hockey Canada scrimmages, again because of his ability to lead or join the attack. I guess my biggest concern is how he slots into the Kingston lineup this year. This team is deep down the middle if they play Arcuri at center behind Shane Wright. Is he the team's third line center? Do they consider sliding him to the wing? Playing second fiddle to Shane Wright is going to be difficult for him; standing out consistently could be tough.

5. Ty Nelson - Defense - North Bay Battalion
I know a lot of people seem to have Nelson ranked second heading into the year, but I'm just not sure its realistic or logical. Look...Ty Nelson is good. But how good...remains to be seen. And given his size (listed at 5'7 on the OHL website), it seems rather improbable that he is the second player taken from the OHL this season. How many defenseman his size get drafted in the first round? The NHL is changing for the better, but the road for smaller blueliners is still a bumpy one. All that said, again...Ty Nelson is going to be a great OHL defender. For one, he's a fiery competitor, which really plays to his advantage given his lack of size. There's a lot of Ryan Ellis in him in that regard. He will lay the body. He never backs down from a physical challenge. He is in incredible shape for a young man his age (the word stocky is most commonly used). If there is an undersized defender to bet on, it's Nelson and that's why he's #5 and not even further down. Offensively, he can be a really dangerous player with his quickness and confidence with the puck. He will go end to end. He will create inside the offensive zone. To hold this draft ranking and to put himself in consideration for the Top 40-50, he is probably going to need to be a near point per game defender this year for North Bay, in addition to being a strong player in the defensive end. Not impossible by any means given his talent level. 

6. Spencer Sova - Defense - Erie Otters
An aggressive ranking for Sova (more aggressive than I have seen), but I am a big fan. I do think that he looked overwhelmed at the Hockey Canada summer camp. But that doesn't really concern me. Few defenders are able to stick out in a situation like that playing against the best U20 forwards, some of whom had pro experience. What I love about Sova is his skating ability. For my money, this is the best skating player from this OHL crop (at any position). He has elite level mobility in all four directions. In a lot of ways, he is going to remind Otters' fans of Jamie Drysdale. How he learns to utilize that to his advantage remains to be seen. I'm not really worried about his offensive game. I think he will be a standout this season, especially on the powerplay. I am slightly concerned with his defensive play. The Otters will have a strong, veteran forward group, but defensively there won't be a lot of experience. He is going to need to play big minutes right away and that could be overwhelming. 

7. Pano Fimis - Center - Niagara IceDogs
You are starting to see a trend here...another well rounded, two-way center. The second overall pick by Niagara in 2020, Fimis competes hard at both ends of the ice. He is another guy who plays with a competitive edge and who really seems to thrive in traffic despite not having a significant size advantage (around that 6'0 mark). Fimis' hands may be the best in this crop outside of Shane Wright and it allows him to create that extra time and space he needs to finish or dish off. The big thing for him will be showing that he can be an elite skater. Personally, I'd rank BMB and Ludwinski ahead in that department coming out of U16 and I think it could make them more immediate impact players. I also want to see him maintain that competitive edge consistently against older players. Can he thrive near the net like he did in the GTHL? 

8. Danny Zhilkin - Center - Guelph Storm
A player that we have seen in the OHL! Oh glorious day. That said, what to expect from Zhilkin is equally a mystery. In his rookie OHL season he really struggled to make a consistent impact. At the U18's, he wasn't much of an offensive factor for Canada, even though he did impress with his work on the penalty kill and in the neutral zone. Zhilkin has a chance to play a key role for a Guelph team that could surprise (even though we left them in a state of rebuild). He is that prototypical power center who can drive the net with speed and potentially dominate through the middle of the ice. If he can carry over his play off the puck from the U18's, while also increasing his offensive production, he could put himself in consideration for the first round.

9. Hunter Haight - Center - Barrie Colts
Earlier I said that Pano Fimis' hands might be the best outside of Shane Wright in this class. The reason I said might is because of Hunter Haight (dope rhyme if his name was pronounced "Height" instead of "Hate"). Billed as one of the most skilled and creative players in this age group, Haight is going to be surrounded by a lot of talent in Barrie this season and that should only help him gain confidence in his ability to play with the puck at this level. He was one of the best (if not the best) Ontario players at the Hockey Canada summer camp and proved that he can make plays away from the puck and finish off chances created for him, just as well as he can create for others. Potentially, he is the complete package as an offensive player. If he performs well at the start of the OHL season, he will move quickly. So why is he 9th? I think we need to see that production first. The other centers I ranked ahead of him have more complete games and bring more to the table when they aren't scoring. 

10. David Goyette - Center - Sudbury Wolves
Simply put, Goyette was an offensive machine playing AAA in the U.S. with South Kent in his OHL Draft year. His speed is a real asset. He is just a really high level athlete who can make plays with pace. Lauded for his playmaking ability around the net, I actually think his shot and scoring ability is underrated. Much like Hunter Haight, Goyette has a chance to be the complete package as an offensive player. However, much like Haight, I want to see how his game translates before committing to having him higher. Can he bring other elements to the ice when he's not putting points on the board? Can he fight through contact and maintain possession to create when the game slows down? 

11. Liam Arnsby - Center - North Bay Battalion
I have a real soft spot for players like Arnsby, so you know that he is going to be ranked pretty aggressively on this list despite an underwhelming first OHL season. The late 2003 born center was a standout with the Don Mills Flyers and an OHL Cup champion, but he seemed to struggle with the puck at the OHL level. He brought energy. He brought physicality. He forechecked hard. He drove the net. But too many plays in the offensive end died on his stick. Given his lack of elite size as a defensive specialist (5'10), he is going to need to produce offensively to get drafted, let alone get drafted high. No doubt Arnsby is going to be a good OHL player. However, he needs to prove that he has improved his finishing ability and his ability to receive passes and maintain possession when playing with pace to maintain this position into the year. That said, I think he can do it and that's why I have him here.

12. Cedrick Guindon - Center/Wing - Owen Sound Attack
One of the top goal scoring options from the OHL this year, Guindon's ability to find soft spots in coverage, in combination with his release and power makes him a consistent weapon in the offensive zone. He also has the kind of quick feet and high end mobility that you want from an undersized offensive player. I guess the concern I have here is...he is undersized and we haven't seen him prove himself at this level yet. Consistency was already an issue at the PBHH tournament, one of the only recent showings we have from him and it was against a lot of the same players he will need to compete against this season. But he probably enters the year as that top "sniper" of this group and needs to be ranked accordingly.

13. Ryan Abraham - Center - Windsor Spitfires
Yes he is on the small side at 5'8. But he possesses all of the attributes that you look for from an undersized forward who you project to be an NHL player. He is quick, utilizing the mohawk stride to build up dynamic speed quite frequently. He is feisty and competitive, rarely backing down from a challenge, especially below the hash marks. He is skilled, especially as a playmaker and passer. He and Gavin Hayes showed great chemistry at the U.S. Hlinka/Gretzky camp and at the Hlinka tournament itself. Like any smaller center, I want to see the production be at an above average level for the Spitfires next season. I do believe that he can be a go-to offensive player at this level, but there's also the chance that he is more of a high energy, change of pace guy. The line is thin for players like Abraham.

14. Matthew Poitras - Center - Guelph Storm
I know Poitras has some real fans in the scouting community and that has admittedly pushed him up my list a bit because I was always a little underwhelmed by him as a U16 player with Whitby. I wasn't certain the upside was incredibly high. However, he was one of the best Ontario players at the Hockey Canada summer camp and apparently really stood out because of his vision and playmaking ability in the strictly U18 portion. That carried over to the mixed U20 portion, which I was able to watch. There's some power to his game. Some finesse as well. The skating ability is good. But what is he at the next level? Tough to say on what we've seen so far. I need to see more. But I also trust the opinion of some others who really like him.

15. Jorian Donovan - Defense - Hamilton Bulldogs
Truthfully, I don't know what to make of Jorian Donovan at this point. However, given his high end skating ability he needs to be ranked this high, perhaps even higher. Watching him as a U16 player, at the PBHH, and at the Hockey Canada summer camp, his performance has been pretty consistently erratic. On one shift, he'll go end to end and look like a star. On the next, he'll make a costly error that results in a scoring chance or goal the other way. The physical tools are electric and as such, the potential is also very high. However, he needs to prove that he can make consistently better decisions at this level...at both ends of the ice. And even if Donovan struggles to start, it will be important to NOT hit the panic button. Let the Hamilton coaching staff work with him and let's see how he looks at season's end. 

16. Beau Jelsma - Wing - Barrie Colts
Truthfully...I wanted to put Jelsma higher. He was one of the best players at the PBHH, of any age. I honestly was shocked with how electric and dynamic he looked. He generates so many chances in transition with his speed coming down the wing, beating defenders wide before cutting back to the middle. He also showed a non stop motor at the event, working hard to retrieve pucks and use his speed to successfully break up plays on the backcheck. But...it was also only one event that had some fairly porous defense and goaltending. I am excited to see him play this year with the Colts and if he gets off to a hot start, I'll be sure to move him up quickly. However, we need to see this in the OHL first. 

17. Sam Alfano - Wing - Peterborough Petes
Honestly, I like almost everything about Alfano's game. Big guy with really soft hands and a penchant for finding soft spots in coverage. He has really good instincts in the offensive zone. He's not a power forward in the traditional sense, at least in the way that you would expect him to be given that he is 6'3 and 200lbs. However, he does use his size well to drive the net and win battles to prolong possession along the wall. His reach can be a real asset on the forecheck too. From what I understand (from talking to a few people), he really stood out positively in the U18 portion of the Hockey Canada camp. However, once it switched to the U20 portion, his skating put him behind the eight ball. Alfano moves alright in a linear fashion. He gets to where he needs to be. However, his dynamic skating qualities are lacking. His balance, pivots, edgework and startups all need work. That will be the key this season. I would be shocked if he is not, at least, a 20 goal scorer for Peterborough and given his size that will put him on the scouting radar. However, improving his overall mobility will be key.

18. Max Namestnikov - Center - Sarnia Sting
The former 3rd overall OHL priority selection, and younger brother of NHL'er Vladislav Namestnikov, Max's offensive potential is sky high. Judging by his listing at the U.S. Hlinka camp, he has also grown a bit, now up to 5'9, 180lbs. A dynamic puck carrier and skater, Namestnikov excels when the pace is high. However, he needs to be more visible when he is not carrying the puck. That means improving his ability to support linemates in the offensive zone. He needs to use that speed to be better at getting to loose pucks and he needs to win battles more consistently in traffic. It was really disappointing to see him not make the U.S. Hlinka/Gretzky Cup roster, however he did not have a strong camp (zero points in four games at the camp). I watched a few of those scrimmages and he definitely struggled to make an impact and offensive zone turnovers were an issue. He is going to get top six ice time on the Sting this season and he has the ability to be a high end point producer. However, he will definitely need to round out his game more to move up (and not down) a list like this.
 
19. Zak Lavoie - Wing - Mississauga Steelheads
I think most people were pretty surprised that Lavoie didn't get an invite to Hockey Canada's U18 summer camp. The 7th overall selection in 2020 is perhaps the best goal scorer in this age group and possesses an elite level shot and scoring instincts. Lavoie also proved to be a pretty reliable two-way forward in the GTHL, who can use his speed to force turnovers in all three zones. With a strong start, he could easily move up this list quickly. However, right now, I want to see how he finds those soft spots in coverage and excels in the slot at the OHL level, given his size (5'10). Can he be as successful near the crease and in the middle against older players? 

20. Evan Konyen - Wing - Sudbury Wolves
Heading into the 2020 OHL Priority Selection, I was very high on Konyen after a strong season with the Pittsburgh Junior Penguins. I felt like the Wolves stole him where they selected him in the fourth round. Konyen is a speedy goal scorer who presumably plays on the wing with Sudbury even though he played both center and wing in U16 action. He's not a huge kid (5'10), but I think his upside as a goal scorer is among the highest of any player listed here. He was excellent at the PBHH, using his speed to carve up ice and he made a few defenders look silly at the event. However, like Namestnikov, he struggled at the U.S. Hlinka camp recently, also going scoreless and looking overwhelmed physically at times. The Wolves do have some solid depth heading into the year, so Konyen will need to play well to earn ice time. I have hopes that he does though.
 
21. Andrew Leblanc - Center - Kitchener Rangers
Even though he is ranked 21st, Leblanc was actually one of my favourites from this OHL group heading into the 2020 priority selection. I think he is a very well rounded and intelligent pivot. One of those players who always keeps his feet moving in the offensive end and has enough puck skill and creativity to excel as a playmaker. He is the personification of the type of center that the Rangers have targeted over the course of the last few decades. So why is he 21st? I think his physical tools are a little behind some of the other centers on this list. As an OHL player, his skating probably grades as average. Same for his strength and finishing ability. Can he create in transition and drive pace like NHL scouts want from their centers? I think he can and I'm sure those physical tools have improved in the last 18 months...but it's a case of him needing to show it first IMO. 

22. Isaiah George - Defense - London Knights
Playing time is probably going to be difficult for him this year. He is going to be competing with some other very talented young defenders for consistent ice time. Don't let his draft position fool you (68th OV), as George was a clear first round talent for the draft but fell due to concerns that he was heading to the USHL and the NCAA. George is the epitome of physical tools. He is a potentially strong two-way defender who can use his mobility, size, and skill to be an impact player. He can lead the attack out of the defensive zone. He can QB a powerplay. He can provide a physical presence. However, the knock on him has been his decision making. Can he step right into the OHL and improve in this area, taking better care of the puck? If he struggles, the leash will be short due to London's depth. The potential is too high for him to be lower than this heading into the season, though.

23. Kocha Delic - Center - Sudbury Wolves
Delic was sort of the talk of the 2020 priority selection, since he was supposed to be a top 8 selection but fell to the mid second round. With the OHL on hiatus last season, Delic did try to go overseas to play in the Swedish U18 league, but that league was suspended too. He did play at the PBHH, though, and performed admirably. I actually really liked Delic's play without the puck at the event. He excelled as a forechecker, penalty killer, and brought a physical element (rare at the event). It was interesting to see that because I found this area of his game to be lacking at times in the GTHL. While I listed Delic as a center, I think he's more likely to play the wing this year in Sudbury (and perhaps beyond). He is a creative offensive catalyst, but similar to what I said about Andrew Leblanc, we need to see how those physical tools have improved.

24. Dalyn Wakely - Center - North Bay Battalion
Seems fair to group Delic and Wakely (and to an extent George) together in these rankings given that they were the biggest "fallers" of the 2020 OHL draft. Wakely is a potential power center with a big shot and a penchant for driving the net and getting under the skin of his opponents. No doubt he is skilled, but scouts will be looking for him to round out his game and improve his vision and awareness in the offensive end. Additionally, will he be able to overpower OHL defenders the way that he did U16 defenders? He's only listed at 5'11, so I know there is some concern that he was a bit of an early bloomer. 

25. Alex Leonard - Defense - Niagara IceDogs
All things considered, the IceDogs actually have a pretty experienced blueline heading into the season compared to some other OHL clubs. You wouldn't have said that a year ago. As such, Leonard probably starts the year in a third pairing role. But I really liked his game in U16 with the Mississauga Reps. He is an intelligent and competitive two-way defender who also happens to own a right shot. Not really a lot of flaws in his game coming out of U16. Ultimately, the question is...does he have significant upside? How well will his offensive skill set play at the OHL level? Conversely, as an average sized defender, will he still be able to have as much success physically to succeed in the defensive end? 

26. Jackson Edward - Defense - London Knights
Leonard and Edward are actually pretty similarly profiled players and that is why I have put them together. Jackson is a little bigger (6'2) and will probably have an easier transition to the defensive side of things because of his combination of size, mobility, and physicality. However, I do think Leonard has a bit more offensive upside, in addition to being that right shot. Edward's path to ice time is also going to be much greater. As mentioned with Isaiah George, the London depth is tremendous on the back-end (what else is new?), and Edward may find himself in a real battle to play consistently.

27. Lucas Ross - Wing - Erie Otters
Yes...Lucas Ross is small. Last listing has him at 5'6 (from the PBHH). He is going to have to produce at an insane clip to keep this position among these OHL draft rankings by season's end. The thing is...he is capable of doing so. Ross is ultra quick. He is ultra skilled. He is also competitive and fearless, with his quick feet making him elusive to check in the middle of the ice. Look, the Otters found success with another smaller player named Alex Debrincat. Can they find that same lightning in a bottle?

28. Teddy Sawyer - Defense - Ottawa 67's
Not a ton of late born 2003's on this list, but Sawyer does deserve a spot as of right now. He showed well as an OHL rookie in 2019/20 with Ottawa, cycling in and out of a deep lineup. He is already a solid player in the defensive end. He competes hard to take away space, can throw the big hit, and has good four way mobility. At times, Sawyer showed that he could make a clean exit pass or even lead the breakout, where as at other times he struggled with the puck. Finding that consistency as a two-way defender will be key for him given that he lacks the size (6'0) to profile as more of a stay at home defender at the next level. He'll be an everyday player for the 67's this season and will get his looks. 

29. Kyle Downey - Goaltender - Windsor Spitfires
The top rated and drafted goaltender from his age group, Downey has a chance to be an OHL starter. Has average size for the position (6'1 at last measurement), but possesses all the other tools. He's athletic. He tracks the play well. He has proven to be a workhorse already in his young career (based on his time in the GTHL). Downey probably enters the season in a platoon role with Xavier Medina, but given where Windsor drafted him, it's clear that they see Downey as the team's future (and perhaps present) in net.

30. Nolan Lalonde - Goaltender - Erie Otters
A bit of a sharp contrast from Downey. Downey is the more technically advanced player, but Lalonde has the size and raw athletic gifts that NHL teams and scouts love. He was measured at 6'3 at the PBHH and has probably already grown another inch since then. Lalonde probably enters the season as the Erie backup behind Aidan Campbell, but I don't think many roles are defined this season given the year off. Lalonde's potential is very high.

Honorable Mentions
 
Brady Stonehouse - Wing - Ottawa 67's
Competitive, but undersized wrecking ball can be a real force in transition. He is always looking to attack.
 
Justin DeZoete - Wing - Peterborough Petes
Potential high end goal scorer who loves to the push the pace with his speed and owns one of the harder shots in the age group.
 
Gavin Bryant - Center - Owen Sound Attack
The typical Owen Sound Attack center. Good playmaker and already a polished two-way player.
 
Connor Toms - Defense - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
Highly intelligent two-way defender who was excellent in the NOJHL last year (who did play). Hopefully he has upgraded his skating.
 
Nathan Poole - Center - Kingston Frontenacs
My kind of player. Big, physical center who is one of the most physically aggressive players in the age group. How much offensive upside is there at this level?
 
Brody Crane - Wing - London Knights
Top notch goal scorer and skater, but he's undersized so he will need to produce to prove that he should be firmly on the draft radar.
 
Domenic DiVincentiis - Goaltender - North Bay Battalion
Likely Joe Vrbetic's backup this year, but the average sized netminder is highly regarded for his athleticism and quickness. Was the only Ontario goalie at Hockey Canada's U18 summer camp.

Appearing Soon

Pavel Mintyukov - Defense - Saginaw Spirit

Kirill Kudryavtsev - Defense - Soo Greyhounds

Ruslan Gazizov - Center/Wing - London Knights

Matyas Sapovaliv - Center - Saginaw Spirit

Andrei Malyavin - Defense - Sarnia Sting

Servac Petrovsky - Center - Owen Sound Attack