Monday, August 21, 2023

Top 25 OHL Prospects - Summer of 2023

The 2022/23 season was a great one to cover. We had some terrific individual performances, like Matt Maggio's Red Tilson winning run with the Spitfires and Brandt Clarke's post Christmas dominance, in addition to some interesting storylines like the Petes' loading up at the deadline, helping them to capture an OHL title. But the time for reminiscing is over as we will soon look ahead to the start of the 2023/24 OHL season.

As per the usual, I'm ranking the Top 25 NHL prospects who played in the OHL this past year. This was a really tough list to create this year. I felt very comfortable with that Top 20, but settling on the final five names was very arduous. 

1. Pavel Mintyukov - Anaheim Ducks
The Max Kaminsky trophy winner this year as the OHL's top defender, Mintyukov is now the top prospect in the OHL for me. He's just so skilled and creative. Hemming him in the defensive zone is a near impossible task; he's like an eel who always finds a way to slip away to start the breakout. I thought his decision making improved a ton this year and in simplifying his game/approach at times, he actually became even more effective as a playmaker. I also thought that his defensive game improved a ton this year. He can still have the odd brain fart and he'll likely always be a river boat gambler who wants to jump up into the play, but his defensive zone coverage and understanding of how to use his length as a rush defender did show great progress. I don't think he'll need much time in the AHL...if any. 

2. Shane Wright - Seattle Kraken
I'd be lying if I wasn't a little concerned about Wright. The upcoming season and the uncertainty around where he plays makes things even more complicated. Nothing official on whether he's going to be given an exemption to play in the AHL because he failed to play 25 games in the OHL last year. That means it could be the OHL or NHL...yet again. And with Seattle suddenly a very competitive, playoff worthy team, they simply can't afford to have him on their roster for babysitting purposes. He needs to earn it, even if its only in a fourth line role. Based on his play in the OHL last year, I'm not sure he's ready for the NHL. The concerns we had over his game last year remain the same. There's the pace and killer instinct issues. Hopefully the summer has allowed him to really reset and find himself again, because anyone who saw Shane play a few years ago knows that he is capable of more. And therein lies why he's still number two for me. I still believe that Wright is smart enough and skilled enough to be a long time NHL contributor. At some point, at the pro level, the light bulb will go on for him and things will click. When that happens, I think he becomes a consistent 30/30 guy. Not a superstar like we all thought he'd become when he was younger. I'm not sure I have those hopes any longer. But I think he can be a long time second line center who really helps Seattle create a solid 1/2 punch with Matty Beniers...a very different kind of pivot.   

3. Brandt Clarke - Los Angeles Kings
He was just so bloody good upon returning to Barrie this year. He completely took over play when on the ice in the way that we wanted Shane Wright to do. So why is Wright ranked ahead of him still? It's because I still have some worries about how Clarke's game transitions to the NHL level. I'm not convinced that he'll ever be a high end defender in the NHL, which means that he's going to need to rely on his offensive game. Mind you, his offensive game is fantastic, but the feet and how that affects his ability to create at the NHL level is a concern. Now I say all that and I've still got him ranked third for a reason. Brandt Clarke is terrific. He has improved his skating, especially his first step quickness and speed. He was more of a factor physically in the OHL this year and he'll need to continue to turn up that intensity dial to help him take away space at the NHL level without elite mobility. The hands and sense have always been top notch. A lot of the players on this list have flaws that could prevent them from being slam dunks in the NHL and Clarke is no different. However, I like his odds of being a solid contributor a lot more now than I did last year.

4. Colby Barlow - Winnipeg Jets
If you read my draft coverage this year you'd know that I love Barlow. For me, the #4-5 spots come down to Barlow vs. Othmann. They're kind of similar power wingers with similar projections. But I do prefer Barlow slightly. I think he does a better job of playing without the puck and finding those soft spots in coverage a little more consistently. He doesn't have Othmann's hands IMO, but he does project as a better defensive player and someone who can consistently play the net front. The key for Barlow is improving his overall agility the way that Mason McTavish did in his post draft year. Barlow skates well North/South, but he can be neutralized as his attacks becomes too predictable. In order to be more than just a complementary piece at the NHL level, he'll need to find ways to be more creative this year in the OHL. I think he will. Barring injury, he's a slam dunk for 50 goals this year.

5. Brennan Othmann - New York Rangers
Othmann had a pretty up and down year, but when his team needed him the most (in the OHL playoffs), he was there for them and really stepped up his game. He is such a dangerous player when he's dialed in and focused physically. He derives energy from playing that pest like role. When he becomes too complacent and floats a bit to try to get open to use his shot, he becomes way less effective. I know that sounds obvious, but as a pro, Othmann is going to need to become a Dustin Brown type to be an impact player for the Rangers. A guy who just consistently brings it without the puck and who can bring value outside of having those good scoring chops. I would expect him to start at the AHL level this year. He may need a couple of years at that level, especially given New York's depth.

6. Cal Ritchie - Colorado Avalanche
As I said in my work for McKeen's post draft (and during the draft), I loved Ritchie to Colorado. It's such a great spot for his development given the kind of player I expect him to become. He should be fully healthy next year and I have really high expectations for him. Don't be shocked if he pulls a Wyatt Johnston and explodes next season, then ends up pushing for a spot on the Avalanche the year after. He makes others better the same way Wyatt did as an OHL player. He is at his best when he plays with other elite level players who think the game the way that he does. The key for him is improving his skating and improving his physical intensity level to be more middle of the ice focused at all times. 

7. David Goyette - Seattle Kraken
It was a great year for Goyette in Sudbury. Not a lot of people are talking about it, but he was one of the best offensive players in the OHL last season. His strength on the puck was considerably better and it allows him to control play in the offensive zone, even when he wasn't able to beat defenders purely with his speed. His play away from the puck improved too; he even developed a bit of a pesky side that saw him become an annoying player to play against. The upside is still significant and the more he grows as a player, the more likely he hits that upside. Don't sleep on Goyette.

8. Nick Lardis - Chicago Blackhawks
My ride or die from the NHL draft season. I had him ranked as a first rounder even though I knew that he was going to be drafted much later than that (and he was). So I'm not about to shy away from that and this ranking is evidence of that. Yes, Lardis needs to improve his strength on the puck and play away from the puck. He needs to become better at weaponizing his speed as more than just a North/South attacker, given his lack of size. But, the shot, hands, and skill are all very real. Like Goyette, the upside is top level. Really interested to see how he performs in the OHL this year with Brantford. 

9. Quentin Musty - San Jose Sharks
As critical I was of Musty's game at times this year, I still understand the immense upside that he possesses. He's one of the most creative and skilled players on this list. His off puck play did unquestionably improve over the course of the year. However, it still needs to improve further. Quite frankly, I wouldn't care quite as much about Musty's off puck play if I wasn't also concerned about his skating. That combo can be a tricky one to overcome. I think Musty does have a good chance of doing it though. Expect him to have a monster OHL season alongside Goyette.

10. Ethan Del Mastro - Chicago Blackhawks
Del Mastro rounds out the top ten thanks to some really positive progression, yet again this year. His skating continues to get better and he has a very real chance of becoming a top four defensive stalwart at the NHL level. I'm not sure the offensive game translates a ton, that's obvious when Del Mastro gets boxed in and lacks the creativity to escape those situations. He'll have to majorly simplify his approach with the puck. There will be growing pains. But his combination of size, length, and mobility will make him an immediate asset in his own zone. 

11. Logan Mailloux - Montreal Canadiens
I thought about putting Mailloux ahead of Del Mastro, I think it's neck and neck. And even though they're similarly sized, they are quite different players and prospects. Mailloux's offensive game and skill set is very impressive. He has great hands and that massive point shot. That combination makes him very dangerous inside the offensive zone and when he jumps up into the rush. His offensive upside is very high. The defensive game has a ton of potential too. He CAN be a hard guy to play against. He can have really dominating shifts in the defensive end. However, the decision making can still make you scratch your head at times. While his development has been disrupted at times (thanks in no part to his own undoing), I would have expected those defensive miscues and poor reads to be worked out by now. That said, the upside is still too high for him to be ranked any lower than this. Sometimes guys like Mailloux, with that raw physical potential, figure it out like K'Andre Miller has recently. And other times, the lack of true high end sense inhibits them.

12. Ty Nelson - Seattle Kraken
Nelson had a very strong post draft year that saw him reach the heights we expected of him in his NHL draft year. We saw the return of his confidence as a transitional leader, while maintaining his strong play as a powerplay QB and triggerman. I think many of us expected the offense to come back around. It was the rapid progression of his defensive play that really impressed those that cover the OHL. He upped the physical intensity to higher levels. He improved his defensive zone reads. His footwork when defending pace improved. The margin for error for him is different than a guy like Del Mastro because of that lack of size/reach, so those were improvements that needed to be made. Quite frankly, I'm really excited to see even further progression next year. 

13. Amadeus Lombardi - Detroit Red Wings
Might shock some to see Lombardi ranked this high, but I believe in the player and prospect. There are so many components of his game that are high end; the skating, the playmaking, the creativity, the tenaciousness. There are a lot of comparisons to be made between Lombardi and Vincent Trocheck IMO and that's the kind of player that I think he can turn himself into. Don't be shocked at all if he moves quickly through Detroit's system. One of the most underrated prospects around IMO.

14. Matvey Petrov - Edmonton Oilers
It was another good year for Petrov as he returned to the OHL and helped the Battalion advance far into the OHL playoffs. Honestly, pretty much everything I said about him last year is still true. The playmaking ability is legit. However, he's still very much a boom/bust kind of prospect IMO. If he makes it, it will be in a top six role for the Oilers. If he doesn't, he'll end up in the KHL as a top six player. His game is just not tailored to the bottom six. However, his upside does move him into the top 15.

15. Owen Beck - Montreal Canadiens
Beck's post draft season was unquestionably a stagnant year for him IMO, even if he won an OHL Championship. I had much higher expectations for him. I think he's still learning how to slow the game down for himself. Unless he's able to attack with pace, he can struggle to create. Finding his way consistently to the middle will be difficult for him unless his ability to maintain possession through contact improves. I was a huge believer in his draft year, and I still really like Beck. But I'm also starting to grapple with whether I think his upside is higher than that of a really good third line center at the NHL level. This is going to be a huge year for his development. I'm kind of hoping that Beck gets sent back to the OHL right away, rather than get a half dozen games like I expect him to. The Mason McTavish, Brandt Clarke way is just not the right one for Beck IMO. He needs to get reps at the top of a lineup all year long. Otherwise, I'm worried he becomes another Liam Foudy.

16. Matthew Poitras - Boston Bruins
I didn't even list Poitras as an HM last year after getting drafted in the second round by Boston. Needless to say, I've come around. No player improved more in the OHL last year IMO. He was so good for Guelph, even when they were struggling early in the year. I was concerned with his lack of athletic tools in his draft year, but the skating improved a lot last year. He looked noticeably quicker and was much more difficult to knock off stride last year. He often controlled the puck for long stretches in the offensive end and this helped him prolong possession to help him set up scoring chances. His vision is top notch and those athletic/strength upgrades have made him better equipped to use it. This is looking like a great pick for Boston.

17. Oliver Bonk - Philadelphia Flyers
I'm really interested to see how Bonk's game progresses this season in his post draft year. I have a lot of confidence in his defensive capabilities. His instincts in his own end are so good. What I'll be looking for this year are improvements made to his quickness/mobility, in addition to his confidence with the puck. How high is his offensive ceiling? For now, I like this placement of Bonk, behind some players who I perceive to have safer upsides, but ahead of those I deem to be riskier.

18. Filip Mesar - Montreal Canadiens
Part of me wanted to list Mesar lower. He just wasn't very impressive this year with Kitchener. It's easy to see why he was selected so high. He can create in transition with his speed and creativity, however he had a really hard time getting to the middle in the OHL and was largely kept to the perimeter. If that's the case in the OHL, what's it going to be like for him at the pro level? It seems that we'll find out this year too as the writing is on the wall for him to play in the AHL, or at the very least back in Europe. He has a long ways to go IMO.

19. Christian Kyrou - Dallas Stars
Another guy that I didn't list as an HM last year, but who cracks the list this year thanks to some big improvements. I still have some concerns over his ability to defend at the NHL level, but I have way more confidence in his offensive ability translating thanks to improvements made to his quickness and linear speed. Kyrou's four way mobility has always been impressive; his edgework is a sight to behold. However, I found that he struggled to be a consistent factor in transition without that top gear and over-reliance on c-cuts and mohawking. This past year, he became way more dynamic and was consistently looking to attack because of it. He still has that huge point shot, but he's no longer just reliant on that to create offense at even strength. He'll turn pro this year and I would expect him to put up points in the AHL as a rookie.

20. Michael Buchinger - St. Louis Blues
I was skeptical of Buchinger in his draft year because I was worried that outside of his skating ability, he lacked other standout qualities that could make him an NHL defender. His game evolved considerably this past year at both ends and I think that has really improved his outlook. He's now using his skating ability to lead the attack and is trusting his feet more to help him make plays under pressure. Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, his defensive game has become one of his strengths. He never seems to get beat one on one and rarely does Guelph get hemmed in with him on the ice. Quite honestly, he and Ty Nelson would be my preseason favourites for the Max Kaminsky next year and I think he's got a real outside chance of being on Canada's WJC team in December.

21. Ty Voit - Toronto Maple Leafs
Even if I understand that Voit is more of a long shot prospect with the Leafs, I can't help but rank him in this range because I love him as a prospect. I've been a fan since his draft year and I will continue to be one as he starts his pro career. He's certainly not the most physically gifted offensive player, but he's just so elusive because of his quick feet and quick hands. He has the potential to be a top six playmaker and I do believe he can fulfil that down the line. Toronto may need to be patient with him.

22. Ryan Winterton - Seattle Kraken
Honestly, all Winterton needs to do is stay healthy. We saw that in the playoffs where he (and his line) practically carried London to the finals on their back. He's so hard to separate from the puck. He works the wall about as well as any player in the OHL and I think he can definitely be a middle six workhorse in the NHL too. But again, the health is the concern as his shoulder remains a lingering issue. If he's put that behind him, I think he could move through Seattle's system quickly.

23. Gavin Hayes - Chicago Blackhawks
One of the most underrated prospects around IMO. He scored 41 this past year, improving drastically in almost every facet. His shot is a real weapon and he plays a power game that is translatable to the NHL level. His forechecking ability is a real asset too. He's probably just a complementary piece at the next level, but I'm excited to see further improvement in his game this coming year.

24. Bryce McConnell Barker - New York Rangers
The Soo Greyhounds weren't very good last year. It was a tough year to rebuild in a difficult conference. But captain BMB was one of the few true bright spots as his game reached another level in his post draft year. Everything sort of tightened up for him and his play/effort was so much more consistent. I still think his upside is that of a middle six guy for the Rangers, but I see him as much more likely to hit it now.

25. Francesco Pinelli - Los Angeles Kings
It was a good year for Pinelli, even if it had a bad ending after he was suspended in the playoffs, ultimately leading to the Rangers losing to the Knights in round two. But he was the straw that stirred the drink for Kitchener all season long, leading them in scoring. He does a lot of things well. The shot will play at the next level. His small area skill improved a lot over his OHL career. He brings intensity and effort in all three zones. While the skating has improved, I do wonder how it will play at the pro level. Next year will be telling as he suits up in the AHL. 

Honorable Mentions (sorted in alphabetical order)

Beau Akey - Edmonton Oilers
Really curious to see how Akey develops this year without playing in the shadow of Brandt Clarke on what should be an exciting Barrie team. The skating is obviously top notch and it's only a matter of time before his confidence with the puck grows.

Francesco Arcuri - Dallas Stars
I think Arcuri has turned himself into a sneakily good NHL prospect. The skating has improved a lot over his OHL career and I felt like the increase in production this year was correlated with an improved ability to play with pace. Shot is high end too. His first pro season will be telling.

Tristan Bertucci - Dallas Stars
We saw how good Bertucci was in the second half of last year's OHL season. If he can move forward and sustain that level of play over a full year, he'll emerge as one of the best defenders in the OHL. Tightening up his decision making, and when to be aggressive are the key next steps.

Josh Bloom - Vancouver Canucks
I've long been a Bloom supporter and I believe that the Canucks did a great job acquiring him for Riley Stillman (ironically an exchange of two of my favourite interviews ever). Bloom is the kind of player whose skill set will translate really well to the pro level because he's so highly detail oriented. Probably not more than a solid third liner, but he should move quickly through the system.

Tyler Boucher - Ottawa Senators
I feel bad for Boucher because he's not likely to ever live up to the draft spot he was selected in. However, too many people are writing him off based solely on stat watching. You really need to see Boucher live to appreciate all the ways that he can make an impact. He just needs to stay healthy, especially given the way that he needs to play. Again, upside likely capped but he's going to be an NHL player.

Hunter Brzustewicz - Vancouver Canucks
Brzustewicz was such a consistent offensive contributor for the Rangers last year, but it was his defensive game that improved significantly in the second half. As a late born 2004, I'm very interested to see how he can elevate his game yet again in likely his final OHL season. Is he a trade candidate for a likely rebuilding Kitchener team?

Easton Cowan - Toronto Maple Leafs
A surprise first round selection to those outside of OHL circes, but not for those dialed into the happenings of the league. He was so good down the stretch and into the OHL playoffs last year. His progression this year will help us to gain a better understanding of his high end upside.

Luca Del Bel Belluz - Columbus Blue Jackets
Not going to lie, I had higher expectations for Del Bel Belluz last year. I thought that his development stagnated a bit. I do have some concerns over how his game translates to the pro level next year. There's still a need to improve his quickness. However, the shot, scoring instincts, and small area skill are all high end.

Dom DiVincentiis - Winnipeg Jets
The OHL netminder of the year, Dom DiVincentiis was fantastic from start to finish for North Bay last year. He really worked hard to reign in his athleticism to be more consistent in his reads and positioning. The real test for him will be this year when North Bay loses a lot of their key offensive players, forcing him to be even better to help them climb the standings.

Isaiah George - New York Islanders
This is going to be a huge year for George. We're still waiting for that offensive breakout from him and he'll likely be given every opportunity by the Hunters to be a top pairing defender for London. He's still one of the best skaters in the OHL, but more than that is needed to be an NHL defender.

Andrew Gibson - Detroit Red Wings
I loved what Gibson brought to the table defensively last year for a bottom feeding Soo team. The question is, does he have significant offensive upside or does he project as more of a stay at home type? Lots of development time left and the Greyhounds should be better this upcoming year.

Hunter Haight - Minnesota Wild
While Haight was good after the trade to Saginaw, I think we're still waiting for him to truly explode and put it all together. He can play a skilled game. He can play a heavy game. But can he blend the two to truly dominate possession? With Saginaw hosting the Memorial Cup this year, Haight will have a huge opportunity.

Paul Ludwinski - Chicago Blackhawks
It was a year to forget for Ludwinski. Even before the injury, he just wasn't great. I was a huge fan of his in his draft year, but I think that the stagnation in development that we saw last year is a bit concerning. But this season is a new year. My expectation is that he'll be one of the OHL's most improved players.

Matthew Maggio - New York Islanders
The Red Tilson award winner last year as the OHL's best player, Maggio certainly got my vote. In chatting with him for the podcast, I think he has a very clear understanding of the improvements he needs to make in his game (improving linear quickness, improving two-way effort, getting to the middle more consistently) to be a solid pro. I think he can do it. Nearly had him at #25.

Jack Matier - Nashville Predators
Another player that I heavily considered for #25, Matier's development this year for Ottawa was fantastic. We saw him gain so much confidence in his ability to make plays with the puck and be more of a two-way threat. But his defensive game will be his calling card at the pro level and I have a lot of faith in him becoming an NHL defender in some capacity.

Kyle McDonald - Dallas Stars
I'm not usually the type to include overager signees in this list because I understand the uphill battle that they face. However, I think McDonald is different. Here's a player who battled injuries his entire OHL career, but finally put it together this year (even in the face of more injuries). This guy can absolutely fire a puck and he has the size to help him get those looks in the middle consistently. Can he keep up with the pace of the pro game?

Logan Morrison - Seattle Kraken
I know, I know, I just said that I don't include a lot of OA free agents on these lists. But like McDonald, Morrison is different. This is a player who should have never been a free agent in the first place. Yeah, the skating isn't terrific. But I'm always willing to bet on high IQ players like Morrison. The next Tye Kartye for Seattle?

Sasha Pastujov - Anaheim Ducks
Given his pedigree, production, and draft slot, you probably expected to see Pastujov in the Top 25. However, as you may have guessed, I have major concerns over how his game translates to the pro level. I don't think he's going to be able to dominate touches deep in the zone and along the half wall the same way that he does in the OHL and it will force him to alter his approach. Either that...or really improve his skating.

Coulson Pitre - Anaheim Ducks
2023/24 is going to be a huge year for Pitre in his draft +1, because of his late birthdate. I really want to see him take that next step as a premier offensive player in the league to match his energy and physicality. 

Carson Rehkopf - Seattle Kraken
Another player that I highly considered for #25. My hesitancy was based around his inconsistencies. If he puts things together next year for Kitchener and is well over a point per game, he's in the top 15 next year, let alone the top 25. But, given all the question marks, I think he needs to prove it first.

Tucker Robertson - Seattle Kraken
I love Robertson. He had that lull around the end of the 2022 calendar year, but otherwise, what a season for him. He just competes so hard and is such a versatile player. I guess my concern for him is that he's not the type of high end skater that you typically see in the NHL these days, playing that bottom six, high energy role. He might need a few years in the AHL, but I think he'll eventually be an NHL player.

Matyas Sapovaliv - Vegas Golden Knights
If the Sapovaliv we saw in last year's OHL playoffs shows up from the get go for Saginaw this year, look out. The big pivot has such great potential as a dominant two-way forward. Upping his physical intensity level and improving his strength are keys.

Carey Terrance - Anaheim Ducks
As that talented, but young, Erie team improves around Terrance, what kind of heights can he reach? I think the most underrated component of his game is his shot. Everyone talks about the speed and two-way engagement, but the continued development of his shot will be key in determining what kind of NHL upside he has.

Danny Zhilkin - Winnipeg Jets
The offensive game never really hit the level that we thought it might in the OHL, but it doesn't mean that Zhilkin can't be a solid pro. The size and speed combination will play. The key for Zhilkin will be the continued development of his off puck game, while simplifying things offensively. Winnipeg should probably focus on trying to develop him into a solid defensive type like a Derek Stepan.


3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Great analysis as always Brock. What do you think about JR Avon’s possibilities at the next level? He definitely “weaponizes his speed” (to steal the line from your comments on Lardis) and IMO improved his physicality and defensive play.

Brock Otten said...

I definitely considered adding Avon to the HM group. Obviously the speed can play, as you mentioned. And no question, he has improved as a two-way player over his OHL career which improves his odds of being an NHL player.

The key for him is adding that strength/physicality component to his game more consistently. I don't think Avon is skilled enough to be a top six player at the NHL level and that means that his path to a permanent NHL role will be through his ability to bring energy and kill penalties in a bottom six role. In order to do that at the next level, he's going to need to continue to get stronger and become a little more "feisty." I think of the issues that Liam Foudy has had establishing himself as permanent NHL fixture and it stems from the fact that he has had to work to add tenacity and physical intensity to his approach. It takes more than being just an elite level skater to be a solid pro and Avon will definitely figure that out this year. I think he has a long road ahead of him, but I do see an eventual path for him to be a solid role player.

Bra Wavers said...

Thanks for the feedback Brock! As a diehard Petes fan, I'm hoping Philly will send him back to the Petes for an OA year to further develop those qualities :)