Monday, August 19, 2024

Top 25 OHL Prospects - Summer of 2024

The Memorial Cup and the NHL Draft are in the rear view mirror; everyone is in summer mode. That means it is time to update my annual Top OHL prospects list.

As per the usual, I'm ranking the Top 25 NHL prospects who played in the OHL this past year. 

1. Sam Dickinson - San Jose Sharks
Yes, he was the 11th overall pick, behind a few other players on this list, but Dickinson was my top rated player for the 2024 draft and I'm sticking to that ranking. I absolutely love the fit of Dickinson in San Jose's system. He gives them a strong two-way presence to build around on the back-end. I love the skating ability and I love his sense without the puck. This is a player who has really worked to understand some of his limitations on the ice and who truly understands how to best utilize his quickness as an offensive player. There's a need to add some jam to his game in the defensive end, but that should come under Dale Hunter. If he can make those improvements next year, I think he's in the NHL in 2025/26.

2. Zayne Parekh - Calgary Flames
It's certainly an interesting fit, given that Calgary already has some high end offensive defenders in the system. But at #9 this year, I think Calgary saw Parekh as the clear top player available and had to take him. I mean, how could you argue with the year that he had? Max Kaminsky winner, CHL defender of the year, and Memorial Cup winner; those are some impressive accolades. Will his defensive game need to keep improving? For sure. There will be an adjustment period for him at the next level given the open nature of Saginaw's system. However, he's such an intelligent and creative player. I think he's going to adapt just fine. 

3. Beckett Sennecke - Anaheim Ducks
One of the biggest surprises of the 2024 NHL Draft was the selection of Sennecke at #3 by Anaheim. But I see the reasoning. This is a team with a clear vision; they want to play heavy and they want good athletes. Sennecke's upside is immense because of how rapidly he is growing and improving. Once he fills out and is playing at over 200lbs, just how unstoppable will he be? Really, the only thing missing from his game is consistency. Adding that weight and improved conditioning should unlock that, just as it did for fellow Anaheim Duck Mason McTavish. 

4. Easton Cowan - Toronto Maple Leafs
This year's Red Tilson winner (he got my vote btw), Cowan's improvement this year was remarkable. But, I suppose we should have seen this coming after the way that he finished his draft year. His play and confidence on the puck improved so much; he truly became that primary play driver. The compete level remains high and he's worked hard to improve his consistency off the puck. His play this season really helped alter the perception of his upside. When he was drafted, I thought more middle six, complementary type. Now, I think he's got top six upside.

5. Dalibor Dvorsky - St. Louis Blues
Dvorsky came as advertised this year with Sudbury. I think one of the things that surprised me the most was his effectiveness as a three zone player. I figured that he'd be an impact offensive player with his ability to shoot the puck and his overall skill level, but I didn't expect him to be as dominant both ways as he was. This is the kind of player who is perfectly designed to play in today's game with his power and skill. I actually think that he could force his way onto the Blues roster this season with a strong camp; there's an opening there.

6. Cal Ritchie - Colorado Avalanche
I absolutely love Ritchie as a player. The second half Cal Ritchie, leading Oshawa to an Eastern Conference title, would have been my Red Tilson vote had he played all year. I think one of the major criticisms of his game in his draft year was the inconsistency with which he attacked and played through the middle. I saw major growth there this season. Now fully healthy, Ritchie consistently showed an ability to protect the puck through traffic, drawing in pressure to open up lanes for his teammates. He's only going to continue to improve and I think he has a chance to be a long time NHL, top six center for Colorado.

7. Colby Barlow - Winnipeg Jets
It was perhaps a bit of a stagnant year for Barlow. The goal scoring ability shined through again. The two-way ability shined through again. However, he battled injuries, the Attack struggled to be a consistent power in the West, and Barlow's playmaking ability didn't really take that next step. He's still a prospect that I really like and I think he's going to be a really solid pro. But, I'm also starting to worry that what you see is what you get here. 2024/25 is going to be a big year for him to prove that he can drive play consistently and make those around him better..

8. Quentin Musty - San Jose Sharks
Really strong year for Musty as he emerged as one of the leading scorers in the OHL. We saw positive steps forward in nearly every aspect of his game. He took greater advantage of his solid shot by shooting the puck with more conviction. He looked a step quicker and played with greater pace. His play away from the puck and physical intensity improved in consistency. It was just a really solid draft +1 for him. All eyes will be on him next year as he enters 2024/25 as one of the top candidates to win the Red Tilson. 

9. Jett Luchanko - Philadelphia Flyers
Loved the pick for the Flyers. Was a big Luchanko fan all season long. I think that Jett is a player just scratching the surface of his offensive ability. He's a tremendous skater, but he's not yet a dynamic carrier, so it's almost hard to see how quick he is at times. As the talent improves around him in Guelph and as he gets stronger on the puck, I think we'll see him turn into a real consistent play driver. The playmaking ability and vision are massively underrated and the IQ, intensity, and defensive awareness give him a solid floor. 

10. Oliver Bonk - Philadelphia Flyers
Hard to argue with the kind of season Bonk had. He continued to be a strong presence defensively for London, but took his offensive production to another level. Bonk finished in the top five of defenseman scoring and was particularly effective on the powerplay. If I had told you that it was Bonk who led the league in powerplay goals by a defender, you'd probably be a little surprised. To an extent, I believe that he is altering the perception of his offensive upside at the next level. Really curious to see what his season looks like next year. Can he continue to improve his on puck skill and creativity? Can he continue to improve his skating to become one of the OHL's better transitional attackers? Philly fans should be elated.

11. Liam Greentree - Los Angeles Kings
The somewhat disappointing end to his season really took some sting away from Greentree's draft stock. But, he just looked tired carrying Windsor all year and I think he ran out of steam by the time the U18's rolled around. No question, the skating needs to improve and that was obvious at the U18's. But, the hands are legit. The scoring ability is legit. He's a highly intelligent player. On top of the skating, I'd also like to see his physicality pick up a bit. If he's only going to be an average skater, the compete needs to be a major strength. The next Jason Robertson?

12. Carson Rehkopf - Seattle Kraken
Overall, a very strong season for Rehkopf, who emerged as one of the top flight players in the OHL. His season didn't quite finish the way that it started; no doubt he lost a bit of steam, however it was a positive step forward. He was more consistent on the puck, using his size more to his advantage to help him get to the net and play through contact. The shot is still a major weapon too and will likely be his calling card at the next level. I'm starting to see a lot of similarities between Rehkopf and the path that Owen Tippett took to the NHL. Next year, it will be about becoming one of the OHL's premier two-way players, leading his new team, Brampton, to near the top of the Eastern Conference. At least that's the next logical step IMO.

13. David Goyette - Seattle Kraken
The OHL's Eddie Powers' trophy winner as the top scorer, what more can be said about Goyette's development since he was drafted two years ago? He's worked hard to become quicker. He's worked hard to become a more consistent off puck player and defensive presence. He's worked hard to be stronger on the puck and to add some bite to his game. He's ready for that next step as a pro. Does he have the physical gifts of some of the forwards ranked ahead of him here? No. But the upside remains high.

14. Owen Beck - Montreal Canadiens
Truthfully, I'm not sure Beck has done much to alter the perception of his upside since being drafted. I think Montreal knew what they were getting and I think Canadiens fans know what they are getting. And you know what? That's OK. Beck is going to be a versatile, middle six...perhaps even leaning third line forward. But that provides so much value. These are the types of guys who are going to eventually help Montreal get out of this rebuild and the safety of Beck's projection keeps him at #14 on my list, even if some guys below him have higher upside as scoring line players. The Memorial Cup final was the perfect example of the way that Beck will look as a pro. 

15. Kasper Halttunen - San Jose Sharks
He's not nearly as consistent as some of the other players that I have ranked below him, but I came away quite impressed with Halttunen at various points of this year. Man, he can absolutely rifle the puck. I'm hoping that he plays in the OHL again next year because I think he's going to have a monster season. Dale Hunter will be good to make him a better even strength player, someone who can dominate shifts with his size and skill. If his playmaking ability/vision and quickness can take that next step, look out. As is, his scoring upside is significant.

16. Marek Vanacker - Chicago Blackhawks
I think it will be incredibly interesting to see how Vanacker plays when he returns next season fully healthy. I'd bet that we don't see him until near the end of the calendar year following shoulder surgery. However, Vanacker has stated that the injury impacted him most of the year. While his offensive production was consistent for a surprising Brantford team, I think the injury helps to explain some of the inconsistency in his off puck play from shift to shift. Maybe we don't get to see the true impact of a clean bill of health until 2025/26, but Vanacker is a player who deserved to be a first round selection this year and is someone with a lot of different paths to being a pro depending on how his game develops.

17. Ben Danford - Toronto Maple Leafs
I advocated for Danford pretty hard this year based on what I saw in the second half and in the playoffs and I'm glad that Toronto saw what I saw. The defense is going to play in some capacity. Now it's about seeing what he is capable of offensively. In the playoffs we saw a player more confident in using his skating ability to apply offensive pressure. Can this become more consistent? Can the skill level and confidence as a carrier improve too? Will Danford get to the point where he becomes a terrific powerplay QB at the OHL level? I guess we'll see.

18. Sam O'Reilly - Edmonton Oilers
O'Reilly really grew on me over the course of the season as I gained appreciation for all the things he does well. He's already a polished two-way player who brings a consistent element of physicality. But as his skating improves, I think we'll see someone who can be a consistent difference maker offensively too. Will we see O'Reilly start the year down the middle beside Easton Cowan and Denver Barkey on one of the CHL's truly elite lines? If so, expect a huge jump in production. 

19. Cole Beaudoin - Utah Hockey Club
In reality, there's not a ton that separates Beaudoin from a guy like Owen Beck, ranked at #14...at least in terms of perceived upside. I guess I just want to see what kind of upgrades he can make to his skating before ranking him higher. In addition, I want to see how he can improve offensively, especially as a goal scorer, and how he can lead Barrie back to the top of the Eastern Conference this coming season. 

20. Nick Lardis - Chicago Blackhawks
A wrist injury limited Lardis to about a half season, but he was highly effective during that time; even returning for the playoffs where he didn't appear to miss a beat. The speed and goal scoring ability remain legit. What we'll look for next year is continued improvement away from the puck, in combination with improved strength on the puck to make him a better playmaker. Right now, I'd still call him a complementary piece at the next level, but he still has time to alter that projection.

21. Ty Nelson - Seattle Kraken
Would you say Ty Nelson's development plateaued this past year? I think it depends on what you value. Offensively, I expected more. I honestly thought that Nelson would push to score 30+ this year, given the strength of his shot and the fact that he scored 24 the year prior. But, he had a bit of a down year offensively (by his standards). But, the main reason that Nelson's offensive production declined was because he was clearly focusing on being a better defensive player. He took less risks. He was more consistently committed to defending the net front. He blocked shots. He made safer plays with the puck, even if less risk meant less production. I'm still not quite sure what to make of Nelson's chances at the next level, but I think he's put in the work to be a better two-way defender and credit is due. 

22. Filip Mesar - Montreal Canadiens
Simply put, I expected more from Mesar this year as a highly regarded and talented first round selection. I just didn't see a ton of development from him. The analytics and advanced stats still look favorable. He was one of the league leaders in "successful dekes." The creativity and puck skill remain evident. However, I have major concerns about the translatable qualities of his game without major adjustments. There's still a need to be better playing through the middle of the ice and through traffic. There's still a need to be stronger on the puck. There's still a need to be a more consistently engaged three zone player. That said, the offensive upside remains high and you need to respect that. It's just looking less and less likely that he hits it.

23. Eduard Sale - Seattle Kraken
Speaaking of disappointing seasons, put your hand up if you expected Eduard Sale to be well under a point per game in his first season in the OHL. I would expect that none of you have your hand up. Sale just wasn't the kind of difference maker we all expected him to be. On a lot of nights in Barrie and Kitchener, he was just there. We saw flashes of the skill, but nothing consistent. Much like Mesar, there is a definitive need for him to play with more jam. He's way too perimeter oriented. Can that mindset be flipped? It was a bit of a concern when Sale was drafted, and now that he's stepped foot on North American ice, those concerns were magnified. Hopefully Sale returns to Kitchener this year and has a great year, because the upside remains high.

24. Matyas Sapovaliv - Vegas Golden Knights
The big Czech pivot was a crucial role player for the Saginaw Spirit this past year. While his offensive production took a bit of a back seat in the playoffs and at the Memorial Cup, he was tasked with some key defensive assignments and he often excelled. His length is just so disruptive. Named the West's best defensive forward in the OHL Coaches Poll and that accolade was well earned. Sapovaliv is also a highly intelligent playmaker. His poise with the puck is impressive. I don't think we're looking at a top six player in the NHL. But, I see a clear path to being a high end bottom six guy for Vegas after a few years in the AHL where Sapovaliv can build the strength needed to play that shutdown role at the NHL level.

25. Hunter Brzustewicz - Calgary Flames
What a year for Brzustewicz. We couldn't have asked for a larger step forward from him and it was why he was so highly sought after by Calgary in the Lindholm trade. The skating looked more powerful and this allowed him to be more consistently dangerous in transition. It also gave him better escapability in the defensive zone to help him evade forecheckers. I thought the defensive game was considerably improved. He really upped his physical intensity level. Let's not confuse him with Scott Stevens anytime soon, but it was a huge step forward for him to become tougher to play against. After seeing a guy like Travis Dermott struggle to become an impact NHL'er, I do still have some reservations about Brzustewicz. But, after the year he's had, he deserves to be on this list.

Honorable Mentions (in alphabetical order)

Beau Akey - Edmonton Oilers
Excited to see how Akey looks this year now that he's fully recovered from injury. Big year for him developmentally. Still has excellent upside as a mobile two-way defender.

Jacob Battaglia - Calgary Flames
Wasn't surprised at all to see Battaglia as a relatively high pick this year. Rare to see a big forward like him be such an intelligent playmaker. Can he be a more consistent play driver this year?

Denver Barkey - Philadelphia Flyers
I think we all knew the Barkey breakout was coming. Other than size, Barkey can pretty much do it all. He's going to return to the OHL next year and light the league on fire again. If he can continue to upgrade his strength and two-way play, he's going to be an NHL'er in some capacity. 

Tristan Bertucci - Dallas Stars
Bit of a stagnant year developmentally for Bertucci. He looked a little stronger and meaner in the defensive end, but he didn't consistently dominate at both ends the way that I expected him to. I want to see him become a top five defender in the OHL next year.

Michael Buchinger - St. Louis Blues
Another guy that I think didn't have the best of seasons. I thought he could have pushed for the Max Kaminsky, but it wasn't in the cards. I think he was put in a situation where that would have been difficult anyway; the Storm were a bit of a chaotic mess last year. Without a ton of help, I thought Buchinger's decision making had some bad lapses. Now I'm left wondering what kind of pro he'll be. 

Rodwin Dionicio - Anaheim Ducks
Probably #26 on this list; the final cut. The upside remains really high. If he hits, he's going to hit big and make a lot of people look foolish. If not, he's probably the kind of guy who ends up in Europe, utilizing the larger ice surface to his advantage from a skilled perspective. His decision making at both ends has come a long way. I'm way more confident that he makes it now than I was when he was drafted.

Lukas Fischer - St. Louis Blues
What St. Louis has in Fischer remains to be seen; he was drafted as a longer term project. His game at both ends is pretty raw, but the upside is excellent. As Sarnia improves around him, it should help settle down his game and allow him to build confidence.

Carter George - Los Angeles Kings
Love Carter George. He was everything for the Owen Sound Attack this year and how could you not be impressed by his performance for Canada at the U18's. As an average sized (or even below average sized) netminder, he's always going to be fighting an uphill battle, but the mind for the game and technical components of his game are so solid.

Andrew Gibson - Nashville Predators
Recently dealt from Detroit to Nashville, Gibson remains a solid bet to be a quality #4-5 defender at the NHL level. He competes in the defensive end. His skating continues to get better. The confidence with the puck has improved. He should be in for a really good year in the Soo. 

Gavin Hayes - Chicago Blackhawks
Right there with Dionicio at #26. I really like Hayes' odds of eventually turning into a quality complementary middle six winger. He was so good for the Soo after that trade, but no one really chats about him as a high end prospect. 

Hunter Haight - Minnesota Wild
I think Haight has some intriguing tools. But IMO, it never truly came together for him at the OHL level. I feel like he was a player who fought to truly find an identity. Sometimes he was a power forward. Other times, he looked as as a two-way, character guy. Other times, it was as a skilled play driver. But it was rare to get that all together. Which begs the question, what will Haight be at the NHL level? He may take a few years in the AHL to truly figure out the kind of way he needs to play to be an NHL player.

Arttu Karki - Vegas Golden Knights
There are some really interesting skills in Karki's toolbox. That shot is a major weapon. In the right hands, in the right system, he's going to score a ton of goals as a pro. He could be a real threat as a powerplay triggerman. I also think Karki's above average mobility and off puck play offensively gives him intriguing upside. But his defensive game is quite raw. The decision making with the puck is too. I don't think he's truly ready for an even strength role at the pro level. It's rare to see Imports as OA's, but I think Vegas would be incredibly intelligent to find him a place to play in the OHL as an OA (be it the Soo or elsewhere). Let him really improve in other areas.

Kirill Kudryavstev - Vancouver Canucks
A player who has turned into a quality two-way defender in his time in the OHL. I think back to what his game was like in his draft year, versus what he looked like in this year's playoffs, and it's night and day. His defensive play and engagement have improved a ton. His decision making with the puck has improved a ton. Do I think the NHL upside is significant? No, not really. But, I think he can be a reliable, two-way third pairing guy for the Canucks in the future.

Paul Ludwinski - Chicago Blackhawks
I'm still perplexed by Ludwinski's development since being drafted. Yeah, injuries didn't help. However, he just never seemed to find that extra gear offensively the way that we all expected him to. I think back to that terrific playoff run Ludwinski had in his draft year and I'm not sure in the following two years, he ever looked quite as efficient. So what does that mean for his future? It means that he's someone who is going to need to find a niche at the pro level to make it to the NHL full time. With his well rounded skill set, there's a lot to work with. But, I'm just not sure that he's a top six guy. So the strength on/off the puck, physicality, two-way play, tenacity....it's all going to need to be better.

Bryce McConnell Barker - New York Rangers
Basically what I just said about Ludwinski can be repeated for BMB. Not a great year for his development. It leaves us asking what role he's going to end up playing at the NHL level. He's going to need to adapt and become a tougher two-way guy.

Henry Mews - Calgary Flames
The Flames sure swung for the fences at this year's draft, focusing on upside. Mews has a ton of that if he can clean up a few things. It's all about consistency. Really curious to see what his game looks like next year without the pressure of the draft hanging over his head.

Luke Misa - Calgary Flames
The word draft steal gets thrown around way too much following the conclusion of the event each year. However, I'm fine with using that term for Misa and Calgary. And I say this as someone who consistently had Misa ranked lower than others. The reality is, his skating ability, tenacity, and skill give him a chance to be a quality middle six forward. Eyes will be on him to be one of the best offensive players in the OHL next year on a stacked Brampton team.

Luca Pinelli - Columbus Blue Jackets
Really positive step forward for Luca this year in Ottawa, post draft year. We saw huge gains in his ability to work between the dots and in his play away from the puck. He faded a bit down the stretch again (for the second straight year), but further improving conditioning should improve that in the long run. At his size, I'm still not sure he'll be a long time NHL player, but I think he's putting in the work to improve his chances.

Coulson Pitre - Anaheim Ducks
Pitre is going to turn pro this year and I think he'll be one of those guys who transitions easily, despite the fact that his offensive production never really impressed at the OHL level. His game is tailored for the pros and if he can continue to improve his skating, I think he has a chance to be a quality bottom six, glue guy. I will say that I thought his quickness and speed looked better this year.

AJ Spellacy - Chicago Blackhawks
If you follow my work you'd know that Spellacy was one of my favorites eligible this year. He was so good for Windsor in the second half of the past season. His skating and length make him such a dangerous two-way threat. This year, I want to see how much his playmaking ability and vision can improve. That will ultimately dictate his upside. 

Carey Terrance - Anaheim Ducks
Very underrated prospect IMO. Has transformed himself into an extremely versatile player. I still like the goal scoring upside and I think he scores 40+ for the Otters this year. Still like his projection as a quality middle six guy.

Sandis Vilmanis - Florida Panthers
Vilmanis, while playing with Sarnia and playing internationally with Latvia, was always one of those guys who flashed tools and made you wonder why the production wasn't better. Then he gets traded to North Bay and suddenly he becomes one of the better goal scorers in the OHL. It was like the light bulb came on. He's so dangerous North/South as an attacker because of his puck skill and ability to protect the puck, but in North Bay, he was finding a way to score between the dots more consistently. It really altered his projection for me. I'm very curious to see how he performs as a first year pro this coming season.








5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Being Saginaw bias I have to agree with Rodwins growth last season with Parekh being hurt he stepped right in and took a move offensive role while maintaining a solid D game. In the MC he looked good along with Hache and Donavon on D. Donavon is another young man who developed tremendously last season as did Bloom. Who is a clutch player with speed.
Dickinson is very complete in his entire game and a good 1st pick.

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