Monday, June 24, 2013

Final Media/Scout Top 10 for 2013

The 2013 NHL Entry Draft is coming up this weekend. It's about time we completed the trilogy we started way back in December.

Firstly, here are the previous two lists compiled by various members of the OHL media.

Preliminary List (done in December)

Midseason List (done in February)

As always, this list involves contributions from a rather colourful cast of characters. Contributing their rankings and thoughts to this final list for 2013 were:

Ross MacLean - Head scout for ISS Hockey (@rossmaclean)
Corey Pronman - Hockey Prospectus author (@coreypronman)
Dominic Tiano - Writer for The OHL Writers (@dominictiano)
Matt Burnside - Writer for The Hockey Guys (@MattBTHG)
David Burstyn - Director of Scouting for McKeen's Hockey (@DavidBurstyn)
Sean LaFortune - Scout for McKeen's Hockey/Director of (@SeanLafortune)
Nathan Fournier - Author of The World of Junior Hockey/Contributor to The Hockey News (@jrhockeywriter)
Ryan Kennedy - Associate senior writer for The Hockey News (@THNRyanKennedy)
Dan Stewart - Director of Scouting for Future Considerations (@StewartFC)
Todd Cordell - Editor and author for The Hockey Guys (@ToddCordell)
Mark Seidel - Scouting Director for NACS Hockey (@MarkSeidel)
Patrick King - CHL Writer for Sportsnet (@SNPatrickKing)
Steve Clark - Play by Play Announcer for the Niagara IceDogs (@SteveClarkMedia)
Brendan Ross - Co-Manager of DobberProspects, writer for OHL Writers (@RossyYoungblood)
John-Eric Iannicello - Writer for HockeysFuture (@JE_Iannicello)

and of course...myself (@BrockOtten)

I'm doing the write up slightly different this time thanks to some good reader feedback. Rather than incorporate the quotes into a lengthy paragraph, I'm keeping them separate. I think it'll be easier on the eyes.

Here's our top 10:

10. Zach Nastasiuk - Forward - Owen Sound Attack
Received Votes From: 7/15
Highest Placement/Lowest Placement: 8th (2x)/Outside of the Top 10 (8x)
The Scoop: Zach Nasty emerged as one of Owen Sound's top scoring threats by season's end and as a result, earned a spot on Canada's Under 18 team, where he aided the team's Gold medal effort. His rise up the rankings can be attributed to increased confidence in the offensive end, in addition to more ice time as the season went on.
"He has a great compete level and sacrifices his body for the good of the team and as such, is a very good two way forward but skating needs improvement moving forward." - Anonymous

"Zach was on my watch list to start the year but never really impressed me much early on. His game seemed to lack consistency in being able to deliver the goods despite his solid effort levels. His skating and overall mobility really looked to be holding him back as it was hard for him to get to the areas he needed to be at the right times. It wasn’t until a viewing in March were he seemed to own the ice that I thought this guy has some solid upside. His play in the playoffs for the Attack that carried over to the U18’s in Sochi Russia for team Canada continued to impress as he showed an instinct of where to get to and the ability to capitalize on chances once there." - Dan Stewart

"Playing on a loaded team probably hurt his offensive totals, but his frame and work ethic will make him an effective pro, even if it's in a bottom-six role." - Anonymous

9. Jason Dickinson - Forward - Guelph Storm
Received Votes From: 11/15
Highest Placement/Lowest Placement: 6th (1x)/Outside of the Top 10 (4x)
The Scoop: Jason Dickinson impressed mightily as an OHL rookie, exhibiting excellent scoring instincts and a potentially complete offensive package. His sophomore season had some ups and downs though, drawing criticism for his consistency. He remains a tantalizing prospect because of the potential he possesses.
"I was much higher on him at the start of the season but his development path seemed to straighten out a bit mid-way through the year.  He is a strong skater with good strength and strong puck management skills.  He has the potential to be a very good playmaking forward but needs to prove that he can be a consistent and potent offensive threat.  The flashes of ability and understanding that he has shown are extremely appealing." - Anonymous

"I loved this guy last year. But he just didn't score enough in the second half and his offensive game is wildly inconsistent. He did make terrific strides as a two-way player though. I'd still draft him, but not until the 2nd-3rd round now, when previously I thought he might be a first round talent." - Anonymous

"Started off the year at a feverish offensive pace (16-9-9-18) but failed to build on those totals producing 29 points in his last 50 games. Participated at the U18 World Championships however a lower body injury kept him out of all the medal games. Dickinson has many solid attributes as he is a sensational skater but he needs to get harder on both sides of the puck. He is still physically under-developed and weak and this actually works in his favour as NHL scouts project him to get stronger and don’t hold that against him at this point. The offensive attributes he possesses are very favorable however he needs to apply himself and play with more determination. His lack of intensity essentially bumped him out of our first round nonetheless he still shows considerable promise." - David Burstyn

8. Chris Bigras - Defenseman - Owen Sound Attack
Received Votes From: 14/15
Highest Placement/Lowest Placement: 6th (3x)/Outside of the Top 10 (1x)
The Scoop: Bigras is the "Steady Eddie" for the Owen Sound Attack. He plays crucial minutes in all situations for Owen Sound, and rarely makes mistakes. He excelled in such a role for Canada at the Under 18's as well. While there is some debate about the upside he possesses, he seems like a pretty safe bet to have a lengthy NHL career.
"Chris is such an intelligent defensemen. He plays a quiet but effective game, which composure is a big key, as he doesn’t seem affected by the pressure. While having such a polished defensive game, Chris is underrated in terms of offensive potential." - Anonymous

"Bigras won two International gold medals (Hlinka, U18) this season, a feat that will not get over looked by NHL teams. His offensive/defensive zone awareness and hockey sense are in the upper echelon of the draft as he has a knack for finding the best option and is an effective problem solver. Bigras has a slight bow leg which made him susceptible to being beaten to the outside nonetheless he is very diligent in his own zone and was rarely caught out of position. Had a solid offensive season even when his PP time was swallowed up by Ceci he still managed to produce." - David Burstyn

" I can’t get enough of how well this kid thinks the game.  He never panics, always makes the smart play and is very good at both ends of the ice.  He will never stand out and has tremendous risk management instincts.  Positionally there may not be another player who understands the game as well as him in this draft.  He’s the safest and most reliable defender available.  He’s not the most exciting pick, but he will make a difference for the organization that drafts him." - Anonymous

7. Ryan Hartman - Forward - Plymouth Whalers
Received Votes From: 14/15
Highest Placement/Lowest Placement: 5th (1x)/Outside of the Top 10 (1x)
The Scoop: An OHL rookie this year, Hartman made his mark in the OHL as part of Plymouth's Division leading squad. It wasn't until after his Gold medal winning performance at the WJC's (with team USA), that Hartman's play really took off. Known mostly for his scrappy/pesky playing style, Hartman's offensive game remains underrated. He can beat you with a hard check or a big goal.
"His play at the World Juniors really opened some eyes as to the kind of competitor he is and how he will elevate his game in pressure situations. His ability to create offense off the rush as well as around his opponents net coupled with his gritty, hard hitting, hammer you through a wall style of play make him a good bet to play either as a top six forward or as a hard working grinder at the next level. The only question is due to his durability in the physical, grinding type of role. Hartman is a foot soldier, a glue guy; the type of player championship teams need to win." - Dan Stewart

"The best description of Hartman can be filled with one phrase: Do whatever it takes to win. Hartman is an excellent forechecker, protects the puck well, is very good at puck possession and has that little bit of mean streak and agitator in him. His stock rose tremendously at the World Junior Championships and he’s never looked back." - Anonymous

"I love his grit and cockiness. He can change the complexion of the game as a heat-seeking missile, then remind you of it as you skate in a daze back to the bench. Pesky players like him play and always succeed." - Anonymous

"I'm a big fan. His offensive game is underrated. The only thing holding me back from ranking him higher is his lack of elite size. I'm not sure whether his body will be able to hold up to the rigors of playing at a relentless pace in the NHL." - Anonymous

6. Kerby Rychel - Forward - Windsor Spitfires
Received Votes From: 15/15
Highest Placement/Lowest Placement: 5th (2x)/10th (1x)
The Scoop: The son of former Avalanche tough guy (and current Windsor GM) Warren Rychel, Kerby is one of the best goal scorers available in this draft. His 81 goals over the course of the past two seasons is certainly evidence to that. There are concerns about the development of the rest of his game, but with his size and scoring potential, NHL teams will undoubtedly be very interested in his services.
"Coming off back-to-back 40 goal seasons, Rychel looked completely re-energized with the emergence of Khokhlachev following the WJC as he produced 48 of his 87 points in the final 29 games. Rychel is a big and brawny sniper whose release and ability to get into the slot to exercise his shot may be the best amongst all OHL players available for this year's draft. Plays with some push back as he is gritty and will finish a hit if he sees an opportunity. His skating looked very stale this year and did not progress much due to a laboring stride and limited acceleration. Additionally he did not show much enthusiasm in his back checking duties as he was often the last man back in his zone. If Rychel can improve his skating he has the potential to crack a top 6 spot with an NHL club." - David Burstyn

"We’ve seen how successful teams (and individual players) can be over the years if they know how to plant themselves in front of the net.  Rychel is one of the best players I have watched in recent years (at any level) at finding a way to get something done around the net.  His offensive timing, hand-eye and physical strength around the net make him a very valuable commodity.  He is not the most apt at making things happen on his own but if paired with someone who can create space to the outside and push pucks to the middle or corners for him, Rychel is a monster." - Anonymous

"A very strong finish at the end of the season after the return of Alex Khokhlachev showed us that as a complimentary piece, Rychel can be an enormous asset. It’s when he has to be the “go to guy” that he strayed from his game and it took away from his strength’s. A typical power forward, he needs a more consistent effort and to work on his skating." - Anonymous

"I think his power game is overrated. The occasional fight and hit doesn't make you an intimidating power forward. That said, I think he's got the best shot and scoring instincts of any OHL player available this year. You draft him for his ability to score and hope the rest of his game finds consistency." - Anonymous

5. Nikita Zadorov - Defenseman - London Knights
Received Votes From: 15/15
Highest Placement/Lowest Placement: 1st (1x)/6th (1x)
The Scoop: Zadorov is a tower of power on the London blueline. As a rookie, he established himself as one of the most feared and intimidating defenseman in the league. While his offensive game is still growing, he can change the complexion of the game with his hitting force. The team drafting Zadorov will hope that he can develop into a dominant shutdown defenseman.
"His thought process sometimes leaves you wondering if he will reach his potential or is bound to land on the scrap heap with others who have many impressive tools but not the intelligence to know how to use them properly. I think Zadorov will at the very least develop into a physical dominant defensive defender who might not pot you 40-points, 30-points or even 20-points a year but can chip in from time-to-time with a pinch or strong pass. Man is this kid exciting to watch." - Dan Stewart

"A big mean horse who is nasty and strong. His stick skills need work, but he's gaining confidence. Zadorov simply scares people and also has a bomb from point. Huge ceiling." - Anonymous

"Zadorov steps up when games matter most including an outstanding performance at the Top Prospects Game. An incredibly light and nimble skater considering his mammoth 6'5, 230 pound frame. Transitions rapidly up ice and is always jumping into the play as a fourth forward and giving the opposition something to concern themselves. He has great acceleration and a massive stride that eats up the ice that should he get caught up ice he can recover with ease. Puck handling skills marked improvement over the course of the season however he will need to continue to refine them. His defensive game is a 'work in progress' and he can suffer from mental lapses and break downs in coverage however when he is asked to do less he can easily close the gap and administer punishing body checks that eliminate players from the action. Zadorov has the athleticism, frame and skill set to be a top four defenseman at the pro level who could surprise with his offensive contributions." - David Burstyn

"For me, Zadorov is one of the most appealing defenders in the draft because a) he already has the size and skill that could make him and effective player but b) there is an absolute ton of potential for development and improvement.  He could be an absolute beast in 5 years.  He’s physical, competitive and has an underrated offensive instinct as well.  His shot is a cannon and I believe we’re going to see him continue to get better and better in the next few years.  It’s scary to think how good this player could become.  He has the potential to be the Russian Shea Weber." - Anonymous

"He told me he loves the North American game and you can tell by watching him play." - Anonymous

4. Max Domi - Forward - London Knights
Received Votes From: 15/15
Highest Placement/Lowest Placement: 2nd (1x)/6th (2x)
The Scoop: I'll tell you one thing, Domi isn't going to make his money with his fists the way his father had to. Max Domi is as skilled as they come. His dynamic offensive abilities make him an absolute treat to watch, and an absolute terror to defend. Of course, he is Tie's son too, which means he's also ultra competitive and hard nosed. Size and defensive ability are the only things holding him back from being the complete package.
"Size concerns are overrated. He's on the short side, but his legs are the size of tree trunks. His lower body strength is terrific. Because of his explosive skating ability and his strength to power through checks, I have no concerns about his ability to play through traffic at the next level." - Anonymous

"An electrifying talent who took his game to another level in the playoffs before burning out at the Memorial Cup with a woeful -9 rating. Boasts NHL elite puck skills already as he can stick handle in the rain without getting the puck wet. He paralyzes defenders with quick moves and dekes and stays very low to the ice thus making it extremely difficult for the opposition to knock him off the puck or off stride. Has learned to utilize his team mates better but can still be guilty of holding onto the puck too long. Generates tremendous speed in his cross overs and explodes into the offensive zone where his appetite for the puck is unrivalled by most players in this year's draft class. Sadly the same can not be said when the play transitions the other way however in fairness to Domi he was much more responsible in the playoffs in terms of his defensive duties. Domi has the skills to be a quality point producing forward at the NHL level; size is a minor sticking point however his core strength and balance make him almost impossible to knock off his skates so it shouldn't be an issue moving forward." - David Burstyn

" I love the creativity and offensive production that Domi can bring but his defensive play has always concerned me and has not improved at all.  He’s an exciting player for fans and can get his team going with his technical offensive skill set.  He’s a goal scorer which are always in high demand.  I think he’s done well for himself in trying to become his own player, which can’t be easy with his last name, and I have a deep respect for that.  His potential excites me but if I was taking him on my team, the defensive side of his game would become a major focus for me." - Anonymous

3. Bo Horvat - Forward - London Knights
Received Votes From: 15/15
Highest Placement/Lowest Placement: 1st (1x)/5th (2x)
The Scoop: Horvat is easily one of the most likable players available in this year's draft, thanks to his all around game and leadership qualities. He plays the game hard, but matches that effort level with a high IQ and scoring ability. His OHL playoff MVP will go a long way at this year's NHL draft.
"Love his 200 ft game. Skating has seen a huge improvement from the minor hockey but he needs to work on explosiveness. He is so strong along the boards, and thrives with the cycle game down low. He plays a fearless game and one of the first players to sacrifice the body. Strong end to the year. I’d like to see Bo contribute in the physical play consistently. Depending on the team that drafts Horvat, we may not see him back in the OHL next season." - Anonymous

"Horvat made a name for himself all season long and took it to another level in the playoffs. He plays the game the right way – the hard way, does whatever it takes to win, can play in any situation, excellent in the faceoff circle, able to shut down the other teams top players while still name it, Horvat does it." - Anonymous

"He did everything but play in goal for the Knights in their run, and head coach Dale Hunter may have thought about it considering how well he does everything else. Horvat is the complete package. Someone's getting a mammoth steal with this hombre." - Anonymous

"Because his defensive game and play without the puck is so strong, his offensive ability doesn't receive enough credit. He's got great hands in close (as evidenced by the finish on that Domi through the legs pass), and he has terrific goal scoring instincts. I think his shot and ability to carry the puck will only get better with increased strength and confidence. He may not win an Art Ross, but I think it's wrong to suggest that he tops out as a 3rd liner." - Anonymous

2. Darnell Nurse - Defenseman - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
Received Votes From: 15/15
Highest Placement/Lowest Placement: 1st (5x)/5th (2x)
The Scoop: With his size, skating ability, and two way capabilities, Nurse has an incredibly high ceiling. He has been terrific internationally for Canada and was also the OHL's Scholastic Player of the Year, which points to his maturity. Defenseman like him do not grow on trees, especially with his athletic bloodlines and background (father was a CFL'er). It should come as no shock that votes seem to be split as to whether Nurse or Sean Monahan is the top OHL player available this year.
"My favorite OHL prospect as his potential going forward is through the roof. He is a strong physical player that is able to throw his weight around and make a big impact despite still being on the wiry side. Just wait until he gains another thirty pounds of muscle, with the aggressiveness and meanness he exhibits, he could be a true monster. Nurse skates very well for his size and has some intriguing offensive tools to continue developing as he becomes that strong two-way presence. An injury to his finger, picked up towards the end of the year, left him with a torn tendon that had to be surgically repaired causing him to miss the U18’s in Sochi, Russia and the NHL Combine fitness testing. That alone speaks volumes to how determined and gritty this kid is, as his play did not suffer one bit even with a difficult injury like this to play through. I feel he has top pairing potential with NHL All-Star upside." - Dan Stewart

"Highly athletic and extremely competitive, Nurse would have captained Team Canada U18 World Championship team had it not been for a ruptured finger tendon. Stepped up his game this season leaps in bounds especially in the absence of Sproul and Miller who battled injuries this year. Master of the poke check as he does a great job getting into shooting and passing lanes. Can become over zealous in his own zone and needs to allow the play to come to him, nonetheless this enthusiasm is also viewed as a strength as he does not give the opposition an inch to operate with down low. Passing skills needs some improvement as he had a tendency to rush the puck up and break out of the zone on his own failing (at times) to connect on his first passes. Top end speed needs an upgrade however he has tremendous lateral agility and is able to pivot effortlessly to stay with the play. Nurse has all the capabilities of being a stout shut down defender and has already exhibited that quality in the OHL as he was is often pitted against other team’s best forwards including defending against Nail Yakupov in his rookie season. Once Nurse fills out, he will be very difficult to play against at the pro level." - David Burstyn

"He projects incredibly well and fits the needs of a lot of teams.  He has two-way appeal and that toughness that gives him an edge.  He really doesn’t give away that much to Seth Jones and adds that toughness factor as well.  I think even as a potential top 5 pick he could still be an underrated gem.  He’s a rare commodity with a very projectable skill set and still a ton of room for development." - Anonymous

1. Sean Monahan - Forward - Ottawa 67's
Received Votes From: 15/15
Highest Placement/Lowest Placement: 1st (8x)/4th (2x)
The Scoop: While his offensive numbers might have been a tad underwhelming this year, you have to applaud his effort level while playing for the lowly Ottawa 67's. He's an one ice leader who plays both ends of the ice well and projects as a future top line playmaker.
"As high as I have been on Nurse all season, I still have Monahan at number one. Two things that could make Monahan drop: Not being in the OHL Playoffs (not his fault) and his skating. The latter is made up with his high hockey IQ at both ends of the rink. An accomplished three zone player, Monahan is close to being NHL ready, which can’t be said about anyone else on this list." - Anonymous

"He doesn’t get the credit he deserves and this was not an ideal year for him.  I think this makes him a draft day steal as he will likely slip a few spots.  I still can’t shake the feeling that I’m watching Eric Staal play when I see Monahan.  He has tremendous vision, can take over a game and makes his teammates better.  As a top 10 pick he fits well as a centerpiece to build around or a secondary piece to solidify an attack.  I think he has the potential to explode and be a major impact player in the not too distant future." - Anonymous

"Suffered the Sean Couturier syndrome: over-scouted and under-appreciated. I'd still take him on my team." - Anonymous

"It really said something how hard he played on a team with no hope, even fighting through injuries to skate in meaningless games. Size, smarts, skill – I wouldn't be surprised to see him go straight to the NHL." - Anonymous

"While the rest of his game sort of stagnated this year, I was actually impressed with the improvements he made in using his size (with and without the puck). Let's not forget that he received a long term suspension for a head check this year. I don't think he'll ever be a consistently physical player, but if he can further learn to use his size, he'll be even more dangerous." - Anonymous

Honorable Mentions

Jimmy Lodge - Forward - Saginaw Spirit
Received 6 votes (Highest was 8th (2x))

"This season I was able to see the maturation of Lodge; from a raw and tentative kid who shied away from some opportunities to a kid who is more decisive on the ice, willing to push his way through any obstacle and figuring out how to have an impact on the game. After his first dozen games he started to play better and really made me make Saginaw a must see over the last three months of the year.  While his offensive game started to show up with more consistency and is something to get excited about his defensive play can still be inconsistent from shift to shift. His speed, wiry frame to build upon, skilled hands and instincts shined through this season. I would consider using an early second round pick on him if I were drafting. Lodge is a bit of a sleeper as he could end up as one of the better offensive players at the NHL level to come out of this OHL draft crop when we look back in seven to ten years." - Dan Stewart

" Size and skill are evident in Lodge’s game. And his second half of the year brings real intrigue. If he’s starting to just scratch the surface of his potential I can see a team taking him early in the 2nd round (I don’t think he’ll go 1st round – too deep). Players like Lodge who can skate, score, stand 6’2 and have tons of room to fill out are nice development pieces. Think his physical game could gain confidence as he fills out." - Anonymous

"I really like his potential moving forward. Size, speed and skill. He catches a lot of defenseman off guard by how quickly he can get going. Physically immature though and needs to add size in order to be more effective without the puck. If he wasn't paired with such relentless forecheckers/board players in Garret Ross and Eric Locke, I'm not sure he would have been quite as effective." - Anonymous

Justin Bailey - Forward - Kitchener Rangers
Received 5 votes (Highest was 9th)

"I think he had to make the adjustment from Midgets to the OHL this year so we haven't seen the true potential of him just yet. He will be good value as a second rounder when he develops as an 18 and 19 year old." - Anonymous

"Boy is he loaded with potential. He had a very good rookie season playing behind the Rangers big guns. Injuries early on may have hurt his status, but there’s no arguing his work ethic and he has shown signs of flashiness. He has an NHL caliber shot and his skating is based on hard work." - Anonymous

"Bailey has made me both excited and disappointed this season. His rookie season in the OHL was an up and down affair just as his consistency levels can be in games.  He would make you fall in love with him one game after a power rush where he also shows skilled hands and/or a powerful shot; then grow frustrated with him the next few shifts as he seems content to just float around not engaging in the ongoing action. Bailey had a very strong beginning to 2013 in January and February but his play and consistency again dropped off towards the end of the year as he ended the regular season with just one assist in his final eight games. The NHL team looking at Bailey will need to realize it is likely top six role or bust as he just does not have the consistent work rate to maintain a bottom six checking role. With that said his upside is very high if he can put everything together." - Dan Stewart

Jordan Subban - Defenseman - Belleville Bulls
Received 2 votes (Highest was 9th (2x))

"One of the keys to the Stanley Cup Final was that if Chicago could move the puck out of the zone, then they would succeed. Yes, quick puck moving defensemen are in vogue and Subban fits that. He's small, only 5'9, but delivered 51 points from the back end." - Anonymous

"I'm not sure if his size (not just height, but thickness) allows him to play a large defensive role at the next level, but he sure is a dynamic offensive player. He rarely makes mistakes with the puck and is such an excellent skater. He really helps out the transition game." - Anonymous

Nicholas Baptiste - Forward - Sudbury Wolves
Received 1 Vote (Highest was 7th)

"I’m surprised this kid hasn’t gotten the amount of hype that he deserves.  He’s a big, athletic and powerful player who plays with consistent desire and grit.  He is always willing to do the little things that make a big difference in a game and he is not afraid to aggressively attack the net with and without the puck.  I was always a fan but his play at U18s blew me away and he was an energetic catalyst for a team that struggled to find themselves early on.  He brings intangibles that are very important and I think the future is very bright for this kid." - Anonymous

"I'm a big fan, but I wonder how high his potential is. He's one of the best and fastest skaters in the OHL, and he converts energy and turnovers into offensive chances. But I'm not sure about his goal scoring potential at the next level. His physical play will also need to be more consistent. Even if he only tops out as a 3rd liner, he's still a solid play in the top 60." - Anonymous

That's it folks. Thanks to all the contributors to this list over the course of the season. Please check out their stuff (links above).

For more information on the above players (in addition to the rest of the 2013 draft class), be sure to go out and support McKeen's, ISS, and Future Considerations by purchasing their draft guides. They are incredibly well done and are a must read for any Junior hockey/NHL Draft fanatic.

Purchase the McKeen's Draft Guide 

Purchase the ISS Draft Guide

Purchase the Future Considerations Draft Guide


Anonymous said...

Thanks for this. Great read.

Anonymous said...

If you had to pick between Sean Monahan or Boone Jenner who would make the better pro?

Brock Otten said...

That's a very good question.

I'll take Monahan because I expect him to make a larger offensive contribution at the NHL level. And while he's certainly not as physical as Jenner, Monahan has the potential to bring the same sort of two-way qualities to the table as Boone.

Both guys should be important pieces for their NHL team for the next decade though.