The Under 18's have wrapped up (and Canada earned its 4th straight medal). The CHL playoffs are nearing completion (the Memorial Cup begins May 22). The race to the draft is on. We're about a month away from the 2015 NHL
Entry Draft, so that means it's time for me to release my rankings.
The top 50 will be released in four parts: Part 1
- Honorable Mentions, Part 2 - Prospects
50-31, Part 3 - Prospects 30-11, and Part 4 - Prospects 10-1.
Just for clarification, for my top 50 ranking, I haven't included any
players eligible for draft re-entry, such as Andrew Mangiapane. This has been consistent all the way through my lists. Instead,
I did a list of the top 10 draft re-entries, which can be found here.
Also for clarification, this list is MY list of the top 50 OHL prospects, as if I were drafting for my own team. In other words, this isn't a list of where I THINK
or believe players will go, but a ranking of my own opinion on the
top players eligible for this draft based on my viewings this season.
If you want a draft projection and information about players outside
the OHL, be sure to order the Future Considerations, ISS, and/or McKeen's Draft Guides.
This first part includes the Honorable Mentions of my list. These are
the players who received consideration for my top 50, but who fell just
short. There are 20 in total. I'm not sure I see many of these guys generating NHL draft interest. However, many could get training camp/rookie camp invites and generate interest from there.
Here are my HM's (in alphabetical order)...
Mike Baird - Forward - North Bay Battalion
Baird is a hard nosed forward who played a limited role for the Battalion this year. His role is to come out crashing/banging and to be active on the forecheck. He skates well North/South and it makes him a valuable energy player. But the offensive side of his game is a major work in progress. May have limited goal scoring potential because the hands in close and ability to find scoring lanes are currently below average. He's a former high draft pick who remains a project under Stan Butler.
Doug Blaisdell - Defence - Kitchener Rangers
Along with Medric Mercier, Blaisdell was the final cut from my top 50. I had high hopes for him this year after he performed quite admirably as a rookie for Kitchener last year. But his development wasn't terrific this year. He's got great size and he has decent mobility, but he can get caught flat footed and is still learning how to use his size effectively defensively. Offensively, his first pass is OK, but he lacks confidence with the puck. Still lots of time for him to reach his potential.
Tyler Boston - Forward - Guelph Storm
An OHL rookie this year (after playing last year for Aurora), Boston was a pleasant surprise for the Storm. Through stretches this year, he proved himself to be an adequate secondary scoring option who can use speed, energy, and intelligence to create scoring chances. He's not big though and his lack of strength was evident. As he fills out, he could be a guy who slowly gets better in the OHL and draws the interest of NHL scouts (reminds me a bit of former Storm Zach Mitchell).
Riley Bruce - Defence - North Bay Battalion
A behemoth defenceman (6'6) who does have potential, especially playing under defensive genius Butler. Right now he's still a major work in progress though. Defensively, he's a bit awkward and he can be exposed by quicker forwards off the rush. As he upgrades his mobility and ability to use his reach, he could develop into a solid defensive prospect. He also needs to play with more intensity, especially in the corners. Offensively, he keeps things simple and seems hesitant to attack. A player to monitor as he develops (and fills into his frame).
Andrew Burns - Defence - Windsor Spitfires
Had seriously high hopes for Burns, but his development did not go as expected this year. Windsor even shuffled him to forward at times to get him in the lineup. When he was at forward, he actually looked the best he did all year. His offensive IQ is very strong, but the speed of the game seemed to overwhelm him on defense. He struggled with turnovers and will need to get stronger/quicker to fight off the forecheck. I still have a lot of faith in him developing into a quality offensive blueliner in this league. It wasn't an easy year to be a defensive rookie on a rocky Windsor team.
Johnny Corneil - Forward - Niagara IceDogs
A fan favourite in Niagara, Corneil is a battler who saw ice time in a variety of different roles this year. He's not large (height wise), but he can be strong on the puck thanks to good lower body strength. His playmaking ability shows a lot of promise. However, I think he needs to develop into a more consistent energy player to find success. At times I felt like he struggled with an identity. If he can become a consistent physical player, and create space on a scoring line, he may earn NHL attention.
Adam Craievich - Forward - Ottawa 67's
Like Burns, Craievich was another player I had very high hopes for this year. Ultimately, his skating was not upgraded enough to make him a consistent offensive threat. And his play away from the puck remains inconsistent. He has a fantastic shot and offensive skill, but he'll need to put in some serious work this offseason to come back strong next year in Ottawa. The 67's are likely to give him another shot on a scoring line next year, but he'll need to show gains.
Ben Fanjoy - Forward - Ottawa 67's
Fanjoy is a meat and potatoes kind of player who saw action in a variety of roles for the 67's this year (including some first line ice time). He has goal scoring potential and will take a hit or make a hit to create a scoring chance. He's only averaged sized though and doesn't really have any standout characteristics.
Justin Fazio - Goaltender - Sarnia Sting
The goaltender of the future for the Sting, Fazio had some good performances this year, but was largely very inconsistent. It was his first full year in the league and he seemed to struggle at times with some mental lapses. Next year he should be the starter in Sarnia (for an improved team) so he'll have a chance to make a bigger impact on the scouting community.
Jeremy Helvig - Goaltender - Kingston Frontenacs
Lucas Peressini won the starter's role and was a workhorse for the Fronts this year, leaving Helvig on the sidelines for the majority of the season. When he did see game action, the first year OHL'er struggled. He has everything scouts look for in a goaltender (size and athleticism), but just wasn't able to build any confidence this year. Potential exists to develop into a strong OHL starter down the line.
Michael Holmes - Defence - Saginaw Spirit
Physically imposing blue liner (6'3) who is still learning how to use his size to become a strong stay at home defender. There are certainly times where he looks like he could develop into a quality shut down guy. He'll need to improve his skating and his first pass out of the zone though.
Mason Kohn - Forward - Kitchener Rangers
Undersized forward who brings a ton of energy and tenacity to the ice. He made the most of his inconsistent ice time this year and had a very strong performance in this year's playoffs (when he actually received quality ice time). May not be a serious NHL prospect, but could develop into a very valuable OHL player.
Matthew Kreis - Forward - Barrie Colts
The Colts' first rounder from 2013, Kreis' development stagnated this year. He has good speed and shows flashes of being able to create off the rush. But he still lacks the strength to excel with the puck on his stick and will need to show improvements next year in order to earn more ice time.
Troy Lajeunesse - Forward - Sarnia Sting
Undersized, but very intelligent offensive player. Lajeunesse was a free agent signing by the Sting this offseason and he's worked his way into their long term plans. He's not the fastest or most skilled guy on the ice, but he's a hard worker who seems to find his way on to the score sheet. I'm interested to see how he develops with a young (and talented) Sting roster.
Medric Mercier - Defence - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
Wouldn't be surprised at all if an NHL team takes a chance on him late in the draft. He's a real wild card. Mercier is a late '96, but is only in his first OHL season. Because of the Soo's terrific depth on the backend, his ice time and responsibility has been minimal (especially later in the season and in the playoffs). But he did well to make an impression despite limited opportunity to do so. He's got great size (6'4) and has the potential to impact the game at both ends of the ice. Has a chance to earn top 4 ice time next year.
Liam Murray - Defence - Windsor Spitfires
Big, physical, stay at home defender who was a bright spot for the Spitfires this year. Keeps the game relatively simple and could definitely develop into a premier shutdown guy. IMO he was more impressive than Patrick Sanvido this year, who was an NHL draft pick last year.
Petrus Palmu - Forward - Owen Sound Attack
Pint sized forward (5'6) who was a consistent performer all year for Owen Sound. Because of his lack of size, he's not likely on the NHL radar, but I thought he still deserved mention on this list. He has tremendous skill with the puck and doesn't back down from playing in traffic.
Jesse Saban - Defence - Belleville Bulls/Hamilton Bulldogs
A good sized defender who was one of the key pieces of the Remi Elie/Jake Marchment deal. Saban has the potential to develop into a quality OHL defender, but I don't think he's developed a true identity yet. His confidence with the puck needs to improve if he wants to be an offensive defender. And he needs to assert himself physically and make quicker decisions in the defensive end if he wants to be a strong stay at home guy.
Artem Vladimirov - Defence - Peterborough Petes
An import who should have been better this year given his skill set. He's got an absolute rocket of a shot, can skate with the puck and will look to throw a big hit. But he seemed to struggle with the speed of the OHL game this year and had some difficulty with his decision making at both ends of the ice. It will be interesting to see if the Petes keep him next year. He could breakout ala Damir Sharipzyanov next year.
Bryce Yetman - Forward - Plymouth Whalers/Flint Firebirds
Missed over half the season with an upper body injury. Potential to be a talented goal scorer, but still too slight and needs to add strength to be more effective in close. With limited viewings this year, he's not likely to be a guy NHL teams look at. But, he could certainly bounce back next year if he stays healthy. I know the Whalers (now Firebirds) franchise had high hopes for him coming into this year.
Tuesday, May 19, 2015
Sunday, May 17, 2015
Sunday Top 10 - Draft Risers for 2015
Congratulations to the Oshawa Generals for taking home the OHL Championship on Friday. Their size and skill package was too much for the Otters to handle. G.M. Roger Hunt did such a great job of assembling that team this year, making the big moves when they needed to be made.
With the OHL season technically done (Memorial Cup starts May 22), it's time to shift our focus to the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. My final rankings are complete and I'll start releasing my top 50 after the Victoria Day weekend. As a precursor to that, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the players who have made the biggest jump in the rankings this year. Whether it be a strong finish to the regular season, a great push in the playoffs, or a big performance at the Under 18's, these guys completed their seasons the right way. And there's no question that scouts take notice of that.
Here are 10 OHL draft prospects who improved their draft status over the final couple of months (in alphabetical order).
Jeremiah Addison - Ottawa 67's
Even though the 67's were bounced in the opening round of the playoffs this year, you have to applaud Addison's effort in round one. His 6 goals and 10 points led Ottawa (tied with Salituro and Konecny) and his power game gave the IceDogs all they could handle. He also closed out the regular season on a 5 game point scoring streak. Overall, Addison had a very solid year in Ottawa, establishing himself as a power forward who can be a nice complimentary piece on a scoring line. With his size, physicality, and scoring potential, NHL teams could come calling sooner, rather than later.
Travis Dermott - Erie Otters
I've had Dermott high all season, so I'm not sure he's rising on my list. But with his play in this year's OHL playoffs, I hope he's rising on the list of NHL scouts. Dermott's 17 points led all defenceman in scoring during the playoffs and he showed a ton of poise with the puck. But it's Dermott's defensive game that excelled, eating up a ton of minutes and doing anything he could to help the Otters reach the OHL finals. He's not the biggest guy, but he's wide and has terrific balance that helps him stay strong on opposing forwards. IMO, his strong two-way game and intelligence on the ice makes him the top ranked defender available from the OHL this year.
Stephen Desrocher - Oshawa Generals
Came out of nowhere to pace the Generals in the final three rounds of the OHL playoffs (against Niagara, North Bay, and Erie). Well that's not exactly true, as Desrocher has been on my radar (and scouts' radar) all year based on the improvements he'd shown during the OHL's regular season. I had him 9th on my mid April draft re-entry list (here), but there's no question that he'd be higher if I re-did that list now (I'd have him 3rd). In the final two rounds against North Bay and Erie, Desrocher had 9 points in 11 games (including 3 goals). His confidence is at an all time high heading into the Memorial Cup and he's showing an aggressiveness offensively that was not there in the regular season. At 6'4, 200lbs, he has the size. And now scouts have seen a glimpse of what he's truly capable of offensively. I think there's a very good chance he goes in the top 3 rounds come June.
Vince Dunn - Niagara IceDogs
In his final 32 games (including the playoffs), he had 41 points (including 17 goals). Prorate that to a full season and you're looking at some pretty ridiculous numbers. The 0.5 goals per game rate is particularly impressive. Dunn was easily one of the OHL's top defenders in the second half of the year. His offensive potential is through the roof based on how well he skates and handles the puck. The size isn't amazing, but NHL teams aren't likely to ignore his ability to create offence. At this point, I think he's elevated himself into the conversation for the late first round.
Cameron Lizotte - Peterborough Petes
Lizotte's climb up the draft rankings has been steady all year, as the hard nosed rearguard improved nearly every month of the OHL's regular season. His size, mobility, and penchant for playing physical makes him a candidate to develop into a stud, shutdown defender. His acknowledgment in the OHL Coaches Poll this year (3rd in shot blocking and 2nd in body checking) shows the respect that he's gained around the league in a short amount of time. Over the course of this season, he's gone from not sniffing my top 30, to being on the cusp of my top 20.
Chris Martenet - London Knights
Like Lizotte, Martenet has had a steady climb up the draft rankings. He's looked progressively more comfortable playing in the OHL, after transferring from the USHL. NHL teams would have already been enamoured with Martenet thanks to his size and mobility on the backend (6'7), but he's shown more than just being a "project" pick. By season's end, he was one of London's top defenceman, playing physical in his own end, and even taking chances offensively. As he continues to grow (his game, hopefully not his body), he could be a a real find for an NHL team. I think he'll be off the board relatively early come June (by the end of the 2nd).
Garrett McFadden - Guelph Storm
A former first rounder of the Storm, Guelph fans had high hopes for him this year. But McFadden struggled greatly through a large chunk of the season. When Zac Leslie went down with a season ending injury, many people felt that would be the end for Guelph. But it was McFadden that stepped up his game and filled his shoes. While not blessed with great size, McFadden does possess exceptional skating ability that gives him a lot of potential to develop into one of the top offensive blue liners in the league. His play late in the year gives him a shot of being a late round pick, which I didn't think he'd have a shot at earlier this year.
Mitchell Stephens - Saginaw Spirit
Was already trending upwards before his behemoth performance at the Under 18's. He started exceptionally slow, but in his final 40 games of the OHL regular season, he had 37 points. Then he captained Canada to a bronze medal at the U18's, finishing the tournament 7th in scoring with 10 points (2nd on Team Canada). Stephens' brings lots of speed and energy to the ice and there's no doubt that scouts will be impressed with his leadership skills at the Under 18's. In a way, his draft stock has come full circle this year. Preseason, he was considered a candidate for the first round (thanks to a strong performance at the Ivan Hlinka). Then with a very cold start to the OHL season, his status plummeted. But after finishing the season strong, there are first round whispers yet again. I think he's definitely a guy that teams will look to inside the top 45.
Zach Wilkie - Niagara IceDogs
I had high expectations for Wilkie this year. For the vast majority of the year, Wilkie didn't really live up to those. Ice time was an issue with the depth in Niagara and he never really seemed to find a groove. But at the end of the year, he started to get in the lineup more consistently and his game started to come around. This came to a head in the playoffs where I felt like he was one of Niagara's top defenders. Wilkie has the potential to impact the game in every way (offensively, defensively, physically) and he might have been able to convince an NHL team to use a late round pick on him with his playoff heroics.
Pavel Zacha - Sarnia Sting
While it's hard for someone like Zacha to be considered a "riser," I feel comfortable lumping him in this category. Because of injuries, suspensions, and international tournaments, Zacha played in only 42 OHL games this year (including the playoffs). This limited his exposure to scouts and caused his draft status to fall a bit. At the beginning of the year he was receiving top 10 consideration, by late April, it seemed like he could even fall out of the top 20. But Zacha reaffirmed the opinions of those who always believed in him by putting forth a great showing at the Under 18's. It was at the tournament that he showed how dominant he can be with his size and skill. As such, it seems like he's solidified his status as a lottery pick in 2015.
Stay tuned this week as I release my top 50 for 2015 in four instalments!
With the OHL season technically done (Memorial Cup starts May 22), it's time to shift our focus to the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. My final rankings are complete and I'll start releasing my top 50 after the Victoria Day weekend. As a precursor to that, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the players who have made the biggest jump in the rankings this year. Whether it be a strong finish to the regular season, a great push in the playoffs, or a big performance at the Under 18's, these guys completed their seasons the right way. And there's no question that scouts take notice of that.
Here are 10 OHL draft prospects who improved their draft status over the final couple of months (in alphabetical order).
Jeremiah Addison - Ottawa 67's
Even though the 67's were bounced in the opening round of the playoffs this year, you have to applaud Addison's effort in round one. His 6 goals and 10 points led Ottawa (tied with Salituro and Konecny) and his power game gave the IceDogs all they could handle. He also closed out the regular season on a 5 game point scoring streak. Overall, Addison had a very solid year in Ottawa, establishing himself as a power forward who can be a nice complimentary piece on a scoring line. With his size, physicality, and scoring potential, NHL teams could come calling sooner, rather than later.
Travis Dermott - Erie Otters
I've had Dermott high all season, so I'm not sure he's rising on my list. But with his play in this year's OHL playoffs, I hope he's rising on the list of NHL scouts. Dermott's 17 points led all defenceman in scoring during the playoffs and he showed a ton of poise with the puck. But it's Dermott's defensive game that excelled, eating up a ton of minutes and doing anything he could to help the Otters reach the OHL finals. He's not the biggest guy, but he's wide and has terrific balance that helps him stay strong on opposing forwards. IMO, his strong two-way game and intelligence on the ice makes him the top ranked defender available from the OHL this year.
Stephen Desrocher - Oshawa Generals
Came out of nowhere to pace the Generals in the final three rounds of the OHL playoffs (against Niagara, North Bay, and Erie). Well that's not exactly true, as Desrocher has been on my radar (and scouts' radar) all year based on the improvements he'd shown during the OHL's regular season. I had him 9th on my mid April draft re-entry list (here), but there's no question that he'd be higher if I re-did that list now (I'd have him 3rd). In the final two rounds against North Bay and Erie, Desrocher had 9 points in 11 games (including 3 goals). His confidence is at an all time high heading into the Memorial Cup and he's showing an aggressiveness offensively that was not there in the regular season. At 6'4, 200lbs, he has the size. And now scouts have seen a glimpse of what he's truly capable of offensively. I think there's a very good chance he goes in the top 3 rounds come June.
Vince Dunn - Niagara IceDogs
In his final 32 games (including the playoffs), he had 41 points (including 17 goals). Prorate that to a full season and you're looking at some pretty ridiculous numbers. The 0.5 goals per game rate is particularly impressive. Dunn was easily one of the OHL's top defenders in the second half of the year. His offensive potential is through the roof based on how well he skates and handles the puck. The size isn't amazing, but NHL teams aren't likely to ignore his ability to create offence. At this point, I think he's elevated himself into the conversation for the late first round.
Cameron Lizotte - Peterborough Petes
Lizotte's climb up the draft rankings has been steady all year, as the hard nosed rearguard improved nearly every month of the OHL's regular season. His size, mobility, and penchant for playing physical makes him a candidate to develop into a stud, shutdown defender. His acknowledgment in the OHL Coaches Poll this year (3rd in shot blocking and 2nd in body checking) shows the respect that he's gained around the league in a short amount of time. Over the course of this season, he's gone from not sniffing my top 30, to being on the cusp of my top 20.
Chris Martenet - London Knights
Like Lizotte, Martenet has had a steady climb up the draft rankings. He's looked progressively more comfortable playing in the OHL, after transferring from the USHL. NHL teams would have already been enamoured with Martenet thanks to his size and mobility on the backend (6'7), but he's shown more than just being a "project" pick. By season's end, he was one of London's top defenceman, playing physical in his own end, and even taking chances offensively. As he continues to grow (his game, hopefully not his body), he could be a a real find for an NHL team. I think he'll be off the board relatively early come June (by the end of the 2nd).
Garrett McFadden - Guelph Storm
A former first rounder of the Storm, Guelph fans had high hopes for him this year. But McFadden struggled greatly through a large chunk of the season. When Zac Leslie went down with a season ending injury, many people felt that would be the end for Guelph. But it was McFadden that stepped up his game and filled his shoes. While not blessed with great size, McFadden does possess exceptional skating ability that gives him a lot of potential to develop into one of the top offensive blue liners in the league. His play late in the year gives him a shot of being a late round pick, which I didn't think he'd have a shot at earlier this year.
Mitchell Stephens - Saginaw Spirit
Was already trending upwards before his behemoth performance at the Under 18's. He started exceptionally slow, but in his final 40 games of the OHL regular season, he had 37 points. Then he captained Canada to a bronze medal at the U18's, finishing the tournament 7th in scoring with 10 points (2nd on Team Canada). Stephens' brings lots of speed and energy to the ice and there's no doubt that scouts will be impressed with his leadership skills at the Under 18's. In a way, his draft stock has come full circle this year. Preseason, he was considered a candidate for the first round (thanks to a strong performance at the Ivan Hlinka). Then with a very cold start to the OHL season, his status plummeted. But after finishing the season strong, there are first round whispers yet again. I think he's definitely a guy that teams will look to inside the top 45.
Zach Wilkie - Niagara IceDogs
I had high expectations for Wilkie this year. For the vast majority of the year, Wilkie didn't really live up to those. Ice time was an issue with the depth in Niagara and he never really seemed to find a groove. But at the end of the year, he started to get in the lineup more consistently and his game started to come around. This came to a head in the playoffs where I felt like he was one of Niagara's top defenders. Wilkie has the potential to impact the game in every way (offensively, defensively, physically) and he might have been able to convince an NHL team to use a late round pick on him with his playoff heroics.
Pavel Zacha - Sarnia Sting
While it's hard for someone like Zacha to be considered a "riser," I feel comfortable lumping him in this category. Because of injuries, suspensions, and international tournaments, Zacha played in only 42 OHL games this year (including the playoffs). This limited his exposure to scouts and caused his draft status to fall a bit. At the beginning of the year he was receiving top 10 consideration, by late April, it seemed like he could even fall out of the top 20. But Zacha reaffirmed the opinions of those who always believed in him by putting forth a great showing at the Under 18's. It was at the tournament that he showed how dominant he can be with his size and skill. As such, it seems like he's solidified his status as a lottery pick in 2015.
Stay tuned this week as I release my top 50 for 2015 in four instalments!
Tuesday, May 5, 2015
2015 Playoff Predictions: OHL Championship
We've reached the end. The 2015 season is winding down and only two teams remain. The Oshawa Generals will battle the Erie Otters in a hard fought, offensively dynamic OHL Championship. The series starts on Friday and it's bound to be a good one.
Throughout these playoffs, I'm 12-2 in my predictions. Only one more to go.
Here's my breakdown of the OHL Championship.
1. Oshawa Generals vs. 2. Erie Otters
Season Series: 2-0 (Oshawa)
Analysis: The Generals dominated the season series (outscoring the Otters 9-2), but those results can be thrown out the window. Both victories occurred in December when Connor McDavid was absent from the lineup. And both victories occurred before the Otters added Remi Elie and Jake Marchment (and before Nic Baptiste found his stride in Erie). Enough said. To properly assess this series, I think it's important to break things down at a positional level.
In goal, Ken Appleby has been fantastic and consistent for Oshawa, which has been the case this entire season. His composure in the crease creates a confidence and stability defensively. Oshawa's defenders know that they can take some chances offensively with Appleby back there. Devin Williams has largely been very solid too. The stats don't show it, but he's been a huge reason for their playoff victories. That said, he hasn't been as consistent as Appleby and thus Oshawa gets the nod here.
Defensively, with the way that both of these teams have been playing, I think it's a wash. Guys like Josh Brown, Kurtis MacDermid, and Troy Donnay add size and physicality. While the likes of Vande Sompel, Desrocher, Dermott, and Raddysh add offensive punch and push the pace of play. The way both units handled tough opponents last round was very impressive.
Offensively, I give a slight edge to Erie. Both teams have great size and skill. There's no doubt about that. But with the way Connor McDavid is playing right now, how can you not give the Otters the advantage offensively? He is an unstoppable force right now. He just went head to head with one of the best defensive prospects on the planet (Darnell Nurse) and made him look pretty average.
So what's the verdict? At this point in time, I just can't go against McDavid and the Otters. I think the teams line up fairly evenly, which tips the scales in his favour.
Prediction: Erie in 6
Throughout these playoffs, I'm 12-2 in my predictions. Only one more to go.
Here's my breakdown of the OHL Championship.
1. Oshawa Generals vs. 2. Erie Otters
Season Series: 2-0 (Oshawa)
Analysis: The Generals dominated the season series (outscoring the Otters 9-2), but those results can be thrown out the window. Both victories occurred in December when Connor McDavid was absent from the lineup. And both victories occurred before the Otters added Remi Elie and Jake Marchment (and before Nic Baptiste found his stride in Erie). Enough said. To properly assess this series, I think it's important to break things down at a positional level.
In goal, Ken Appleby has been fantastic and consistent for Oshawa, which has been the case this entire season. His composure in the crease creates a confidence and stability defensively. Oshawa's defenders know that they can take some chances offensively with Appleby back there. Devin Williams has largely been very solid too. The stats don't show it, but he's been a huge reason for their playoff victories. That said, he hasn't been as consistent as Appleby and thus Oshawa gets the nod here.
Defensively, with the way that both of these teams have been playing, I think it's a wash. Guys like Josh Brown, Kurtis MacDermid, and Troy Donnay add size and physicality. While the likes of Vande Sompel, Desrocher, Dermott, and Raddysh add offensive punch and push the pace of play. The way both units handled tough opponents last round was very impressive.
Offensively, I give a slight edge to Erie. Both teams have great size and skill. There's no doubt about that. But with the way Connor McDavid is playing right now, how can you not give the Otters the advantage offensively? He is an unstoppable force right now. He just went head to head with one of the best defensive prospects on the planet (Darnell Nurse) and made him look pretty average.
So what's the verdict? At this point in time, I just can't go against McDavid and the Otters. I think the teams line up fairly evenly, which tips the scales in his favour.
Prediction: Erie in 6
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
2015 OHL Playoff Predictions: Conference Finals
Well I hit the nail right on the head last round when I said I none of the Conference semi final match ups would go more than 5 games. North Bay, Oshawa, Sault Ste. Marie, and Erie, largely dominated on route to easy victories. Going into the playoffs, it was clear to me that these four team were head and shoulders better than the others (call it the OHL hierarchy). All four teams are built for long playoff runs with depth, size, and experience.
So that brings us to the fun of the Conference finals. Both the Eastern final and the Western final should be a treat to watch, with the action kicking off on Thursday.
Thus far in these playoffs, I'm 11-1 in my predictions. Let's keep the good times rollin'.
Here's how I see Conference finals shaping up.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Oshawa Generals vs. 3. North Bay Battalion
Season Series: 4-0 (Oshawa)
Analysis: While Oshawa largely dominated the season series, I think you can safely throw those results out of the window. This one should be tight. Defensively, you've got a matchup of the two best teams in the entire Ontario Hockey League (Oshawa at 2.3 goals against, North Bay at 2.87). Both team captains are grizzled veterans of the league, looking for an OHL championship in their final OHL season. The Josh Brown vs. Marcus McIvor matchup is certainly one of the more underrated story lines heading into this one. In net, things are a wash. While Jake Smith has the experience of last year's playoff run, Ken Appleby has been great all year. Both goalies were terrific in round number two. So that means this series comes down to the forward groups IMO. Both teams have terrific size up front. Both teams play a very physical brand of hockey and are active on the forecheck. Both teams forward groups are responsible both ways and are fully committed to the systems that they play in. So what's (or who's) the difference maker? For me, Oshawa has more natural skill and intelligence among their forward group. And I also think that they're slightly deeper (even if North Bay has been getting terrific production from their 3rd line during these playoffs). No offence meant to the likes of Nick Paul, Nick Moutrey, Mike Amadio, etc, but Michael Dal Colle and Cole Cassels are the two most skilled players in this series and they've got a chance to be the real difference makers.
Prediction: Oshawa in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds vs. 2. Erie Otters
Season Series: 1-1 (TIE)
Analysis: The Soo Greyhounds still haven't lost a game in these playoffs. They've scored the most goals and allowed the least amount (in the postseason). In a word…they've been dominant. While Erie's route hasn't been as easy, they've still only dropped one game. The Connor McDavid show has been just that, thus far. No offence meant to the goaltending and defences of either team, but I don't expect this one to be a low scoring affair. Shots and goals will be a plenty. My first inclination is for Sault Ste. Marie to continue rolling. Their roster is about as good as any we've had in the Ontario Hockey League in recent years. They roll four lines who can put the puck in the net, with each line possessing size and speed. You cut off one head and you've still got to worry about three more. In particular, Nick Ritchie has been an absolute beast thus far. However, my second inclination was, hold your horses, you're forgetting about Connor McDavid. He really is that good. His influence can not be underrated. He knows this is going to be his final OHL season. And he's incredibly motivated to bring home a Championship. His series against the London Knights may have been the most dominant individual performance in a single round that I've ever seen. All that said, I do think that the Hounds are too strong. Connor McDavid will (and the Otters) will take a couple of games, but in the end, the best team will come out on top.
Prediction: Sault Ste. Marie in 6
So that brings us to the fun of the Conference finals. Both the Eastern final and the Western final should be a treat to watch, with the action kicking off on Thursday.
Thus far in these playoffs, I'm 11-1 in my predictions. Let's keep the good times rollin'.
Here's how I see Conference finals shaping up.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Oshawa Generals vs. 3. North Bay Battalion
Season Series: 4-0 (Oshawa)
Analysis: While Oshawa largely dominated the season series, I think you can safely throw those results out of the window. This one should be tight. Defensively, you've got a matchup of the two best teams in the entire Ontario Hockey League (Oshawa at 2.3 goals against, North Bay at 2.87). Both team captains are grizzled veterans of the league, looking for an OHL championship in their final OHL season. The Josh Brown vs. Marcus McIvor matchup is certainly one of the more underrated story lines heading into this one. In net, things are a wash. While Jake Smith has the experience of last year's playoff run, Ken Appleby has been great all year. Both goalies were terrific in round number two. So that means this series comes down to the forward groups IMO. Both teams have terrific size up front. Both teams play a very physical brand of hockey and are active on the forecheck. Both teams forward groups are responsible both ways and are fully committed to the systems that they play in. So what's (or who's) the difference maker? For me, Oshawa has more natural skill and intelligence among their forward group. And I also think that they're slightly deeper (even if North Bay has been getting terrific production from their 3rd line during these playoffs). No offence meant to the likes of Nick Paul, Nick Moutrey, Mike Amadio, etc, but Michael Dal Colle and Cole Cassels are the two most skilled players in this series and they've got a chance to be the real difference makers.
Prediction: Oshawa in 7
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds vs. 2. Erie Otters
Season Series: 1-1 (TIE)
Analysis: The Soo Greyhounds still haven't lost a game in these playoffs. They've scored the most goals and allowed the least amount (in the postseason). In a word…they've been dominant. While Erie's route hasn't been as easy, they've still only dropped one game. The Connor McDavid show has been just that, thus far. No offence meant to the goaltending and defences of either team, but I don't expect this one to be a low scoring affair. Shots and goals will be a plenty. My first inclination is for Sault Ste. Marie to continue rolling. Their roster is about as good as any we've had in the Ontario Hockey League in recent years. They roll four lines who can put the puck in the net, with each line possessing size and speed. You cut off one head and you've still got to worry about three more. In particular, Nick Ritchie has been an absolute beast thus far. However, my second inclination was, hold your horses, you're forgetting about Connor McDavid. He really is that good. His influence can not be underrated. He knows this is going to be his final OHL season. And he's incredibly motivated to bring home a Championship. His series against the London Knights may have been the most dominant individual performance in a single round that I've ever seen. All that said, I do think that the Hounds are too strong. Connor McDavid will (and the Otters) will take a couple of games, but in the end, the best team will come out on top.
Prediction: Sault Ste. Marie in 6
Sunday, April 19, 2015
Sunday Top 10 - 2015 NHL Draft Re-Entries
It's that time of the year for my annual (2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009) list of the top second and third year eligible OHL players for the upcoming NHL Entry Draft. This is always one of the most read articles I put out each year. It's also the topic which I receive the most questions on, whether through email or blog comments. For whatever reason, the concept fascinates people. Of course, I'm referring to the concept of the "draft re-entry." A shift in drafting philosophy has seen an enormous rise of these players getting drafted in recent years. This is mostly because drafting a second or third year eligible player gives NHL teams a lot of flexibility in their development under the new CBA. Plus, a lot of these guys have been having success in recent years (Tanner Pearson and Andrew Shaw are great examples from the OHL), which basic psychology tells us that other NHL teams will try to mimic.
Just to clarify yet again, for those with limited understanding of the NHL draft system; North American players have either two or three years to get drafted, depending on their birth date. For those born from January 1 to September 15, they will go through three NHL drafts. For those born from September 16 to December 31, they will go through two NHL drafts. The players on this list are a mix of those having been passed over once or twice already.
Also, do not confuse this list with players drafted in 2013 who will re-enter the draft should they fail to come to a contractual agreement with their NHL team by June 1 (and whose birth date still allows them to be eligible). Quite often those too are referred to as draft re-entries. But this list does not contain them because it is not yet known who those players will be.
Last year was a down year for players selected from the OHL, which was definitely to be expected. Hunter Smith went early though (second round), and the trend still continued across the other CHL leagues. This year, I would be absolutely shocked if the number didn't increase again. I'd be willing to bet a decent amount of money that the top four guys on my list this year all get drafted and then there's usually a couple others from my list or HM's that get the call.
Without further rambling, here's my list:
While he had to be very patient, Appleby finally got his chance to start for the Generals this year; his second last year in the OHL. That means it's his final chance to get drafted. It's certainly more rare for goaltenders to be drafted (and signed) out of the CHL after their first year of eligibility, but it does happen. And Appleby has the characteristics that NHL scouts look for. For one, he's a very big net minder who takes up a lot of space by being aggressive in his crease. He's really worked on his agility too and is making more second/third saves, refining his motion/agility. He's also worked to improve his ability to swallow up original shots, especially high to prevent rebounds. Is he a product of Oshawa's terrific defence this year? I do think so a bit, but that shouldn't take anything away from his accomplishments this year and he definitely has pro potential.
9. Brandon Robinson - Forward - Kitchener Rangers
I've always had a soft spot for this particular player and have believed in his potential for some time. Robinson has always had all the prerequisite skills necessary to become a dominant power forward in the OHL, but for various reasons (injuries, consistency), he just hasn't been able to reach that level. This year, though, he did take some massive steps forward. He largely avoided injury and was one of Kitchener's most consistent forwards. He really seemed to embrace the physical aspects of the game this year and it helped his game get to another level. If he's not drafted this year (his final year of eligibility), I fully expect him to have a great overage season next year (with some talented playmakers flanking him) and for him to be a hot commodity on the NHL free agent radar.
8. Stephen Harper - Forward - Belleville Bulls/Hamilton Bulldogs
Is he a forward? Or a defender? I think it's safe to say that the defence experiment is finally over, after Harper switched back to center in the last few months of the season. As a forward, his stats were actually quite decent and close to the point per game mark. But stats aren't everything and I actually think he played even better than the statistics would indicate. In the games that I saw of Belleville late in the year, Harper was consistently one of the best players on the ice. He looked re-energized at center and played with conviction and a high motor. Of course, the skill level has always been there too. NHL teams are looking for big centres with skill and Harper is definitely that. Like Robinson, if he's not drafted, I expect Harper to return to Hamilton and have a great overage season that would make him a coveted signing option for NHL teams.
7. Damir Sharipzyanov - Defence - Owen Sound Attack
I think that there is a lot to like about Sharipzyanov and he certainly had a breakout season in Owen Sound. He's a big defender and he loves to use his size in the open ice. He is certainly not afraid to lower the boom on forwards crossing the blue line or driving to the net. Sharipzyanov is also a good offensive defender. He has very underrated puck skill and does a great job of leading the rush out of his zone and gaining entry into the opposing end. He's also got a big point shot and has improved as a power play QB. The question mark IMO is probably the hockey IQ. He'll take himself out of position at times, either on a bad pinch or on a missed hit and is a bit of a scrambler still defensively. That said, he's improved a lot already and I think there's definite potential there for him to develop into a two-way player.
6. Nick Betz - Forward - Erie Otters
While he was certainly more effective (and noticeable) offensively at the beginning of the year, Betz remains an attractive option for NHL teams because of his ability to create space for his line mates. His skating has also improved, which is making him more of a factor without the puck (especially retrieval). Offensvely, he knows his role. Keep the puck alive along the wall and go hard to the net. His hands are pretty good in close. His shot/release isn't terrific and I don't think he'll ever be a goal scorer at the next level. But with his size, tenacity, and ability to operate offensively near the crease, he could be an NHL 4th liner and the type of guy a team takes a chance on based on his progression this year. If not, like Robinson and Harper, Betz will return to the 'O' and make a trio of quality power forward overagers NHL teams may fight to sign.
5. Liam Herbst - Goaltender - Ottawa 67's
I love his story. I was really hoping he'd have a great year this year and he definitely did. Herbst was one of the youngest players eligible last year, when he was passed over (two days away from being first time eligible this year). But his draft neglect last year was no surprise. Herbst was coming off double hip AND knee surgery. And quite frankly, didn't play well. But all of that was to be expected. The road to full recovery was bound to be a slow one and Herbst was put behind the developmental eight ball. In fact, he's already ahead of where I expected him to be this year. The great news is that there doesn't seem to be any lingering effect from his surgeries which allows him to focus on his conditioning and continuing to improve upon his agility and quickness in the crease. But he's a big guy who puts himself in position to make the first save and who is likely only scratching the surface of his ceiling. He is an absolute sure fire NHL pick this year IMO. While one game isn't everything, I think his performance at the Top Prospect's Game (where he was an injury fill in) really helped his cause.
4. Matt Schmalz - Forward - Sudbury Wolves
Easily one of the most improved players in the OHL this year. At 6'6, 210lbs, Schmalz can be a very difficult player for opposing defences to stop. A lot of defenders had a difficult time stopping Schmalz off the rush this year, where he's excellent at using his size to drive the net coming down the wing. His skill with the puck has greatly improved and it's allowed his offensive game to blossom. He's also a physical player who thrives on taking the body. Once the key piece of the Corrado/Leivo deal, Schmalz is finally living up to expectations. That said, he's still a work in progress (which is something that I think some NHL scouts might actually find exciting). He's currently a one trick pony offensively. He'll need to learn to use his teammates more effectively, and improve his vision coming down the wing. He'll also need to become better and more consistent away from the puck. But when you consider that he'll probably be up to close to 225lbs come training camp next year, it's exciting to think of how far his game could grow if he fine tunes some things and continues to get better.
3. Stephen Desrocher - Defence - Oshawa Generals
A very interesting player who's still earning ice time and an increased role on a deep Oshawa club. He's a 6'4 defender who flashes ability at both ends of the ice. He's got a big shot and has the potential to grow as a power play catalyst if he continues to work on his distribution and puck carrying skills. Defensively, he's quite solid and plays a pretty refined game, flashing the ability to play quite physical. If he can use his size even more consistently, he could be a very good defensive player. If an NHL scout has an idea of what type of player he could become (right now I'd want to see another year from him to see what type of defender he becomes with increased ice time), he'll be an attractive late round option.
***UPDATE***
I've moved Desrocher up to number 3 on this list after his strong performance for Oshawa in the OHL playoffs and at the Memorial Cup. 12 points in 21 playoffs games and another 2 goals in the Memorial Cup. His offensive game has really taken off and he even saw lots of ice time in key defensive situations in the post season. With his size and progression, I wouldn't be surprised to see him taken inside the top 75.
2. Pius Suter - Forward - Guelph Storm
Suter really was sensational for the Storm this year, and he needed to be for a team that was asking him to be one of their key offensive pieces (after playing a depth role last year). He's not big, but he's such a hard worker that I'm not worried about him being under 6'0. Here's a stat to back it up. Suter had 46 goals this year (including playoffs). Of those 46, only 11 were on special teams (6 power play, 5 shorthanded). His even strength goal total was actually second to Connor McDavid this year. Pretty impressive. Suter has an excellent release on his shot and I think it projects him to score some goals at the next level. When you factor in his ability as a penalty killer and two way player, it only strengthens his argument as a legitimate draft prospect. Worst case scenario, you could be getting a high energy role player who can chip in a goal here and there. Best case scenario, you get a high energy goal scorer who can play a variety of roles. If he's not drafted, rumours are suggesting that he'll return home to play professionally in Switzerland. Guelph fans have to be crossing their fingers.
1. Andrew Mangiapane - Forward - Barrie Colts
Like Suter, Mangiapane is a smaller guy who plays a lot bigger than he is. For all the skill level he possesses, he's certainly not a perimeter player. The key to Mangiapane's game is his vision and hockey sense. He's so smart when operating off the rush and sees passing lanes before they open up. He also exhibits great patience with the puck and doesn't force plays. His confidence this year is much higher than it was last year. When the puck's not on his stick, he's fighting hard to get it back and has evolved as a 200 foot player. That said, he's still undersized. And there's no question that he's more effective on the power play with more room to operate. But as he gains strength and gets even quicker, he'll no doubt be a more effective player 5 on 5. The top 4 guys I've listed on this list are all pretty interchangeable IMO, and all four have a chance of being top 100 draft picks come June.
Honorable Mentions (organized by position)
Goaltender
Behemoth Owen Sound netminder Jack Flinn is obviously an intriguing prospect based on his size alone (6'8), but he also happens to be a pretty solid net minder. He struggled at the start of the year, but was very good in the second half. He's a better prospect than former OHL'er Jason Missiaen IMO, who was an eventual NHL signing (by the New York Rangers). Kingston's Lucas Peressini also deserves mention here. Much like Appleby, he was very good in his first year as an OHL starter. Goaltending was supposed to be a sore spot for the Fronts this year, but Peressini was a stabilizing force for the club, even if he didn't have a terrific playoff performance.
Defence
Trevor Murphy, the 4th highest scoring defenceman in the OHL this year, was probably the last player cut from this list (he or Flinn). Murphy really broke out this year and has become a very dynamic player. He leads the rush well and can really fire the puck. He also plays a lot bigger than his 5'10 height. He's certainly not afraid to mix it up. But, he's still a high risk/high reward type of player who can be prone to mistakes at both ends. If he can return as an overager and continue to refine his game, while playing for a good team, I think NHL teams will take more notice. Erie's Darren Raddysh is a very interesting player. He really broke out this year as an offensive defender. He's a very quietly effective player at both ends. To some degree I think that works against him as an NHL prospect for the draft. With only average size, I don't think I've got a great handle on the type of player he could become at the next level. And I assume I'm not alone.
Sarnia's Kevin Spinozzi should be a really intriguing player to NHL teams IMO. He has size, plays well at both ends, and made great strides this year. A very underrated player who did a good job of 'somewhat' shutting down Connor McDavid in round one of the playoffs. Guelph's Phil Baltisberger is a rock solid defensive player who blocks shots and takes the body. The skating may not be strong enough for NHL teams though. The last guy worth mentioning is Saginaw's Greg DiTimaso. After the trade from Mississauga, he really blossomed as a player and will go into next year as a top 4 guy for the Spirit. He definitely has potential as an offensive defender. NHL teams are likely to want to see a full year of production from him though.
Forward
Sault Ste. Marie's Keigan Goetz was no sure thing to even be in the OHL this year, after struggling in a limited role last year with the team. But he battled hard in training camp to secure a spot and has since been a pleasant surprise for the Greyhounds. He's played a variety of different roles for the Hounds this year (depending on injuries, suspensions, etc) and has excelled in all of them. He plays the game hard, creates space for his line mates and has shown surprising skill in close. He's bound to take on a larger role next year and could breakout even further. Cut from the same cloth is Ottawa's Sam Studnicka. He wears an "A" for the 67's and does a bit of everything for them. Even though the offensive numbers aren't eye popping, his contributions are not always measurable. I think he has the potential to be a 4th line energy guy if his offensive game continues to grow.
Oshawa's Bradley Latour plays a similar style to Goetz and Studnicka, but lacks the size that they possess. Regardless, he plays much larger than he is and has a constant motor on the ice. His offensive instincts below the hash marks are good too and he finds scoring lanes. Could have a big year as an overager next year. Last guy to mention is North Bay's Zach Bratina. He's had some injury issues, but Stan Butler has really gotten the most out of him thus far in North Bay. I think that as long as he stays healthy, he's going to develop into a pro prospect under Butler. He plays a power game, is active physically and on the forecheck, and he's actually quite skilled with the puck. Even if he's not drafted this year (given his lack of games played this year, this will probably be the case), I think he'll be an NHL prospect by the time his OHL career is over.
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
NHL Central Scouting Final Rankings for 2015
NHL Central Scouting has released their final ranking for the 2015 NHL Entry Draft.
Here is a breakdown for OHL players.
Skaters
1. Connor McDavid (1)
2. Dylan Strome (4)
3. Lawson Crouse (5)
4. Mitch Marner (6)
5. Pavel Zacha (8)
6. Travis Konecny (14)
7. Vince Dunn (32)
8. Mitchell Vande Sompel (34)
9. Zach Senyshyn (38)
10. Kyle Capobianco (44)
11. Travis Dermott (46)
12. Blake Speers (49)
13. Nikita Korostelev (50)
14. Graham Knott (57)
15. Anthony Cirelli (67)
16. Matt Spencer (68)
17. Pius Suter (74)
18. Gustav Bouramman (75)
19. Chris Martenet (81)
20. Andrew Mangiapane (85)
21. Thomas Schemitsch (91)
22. Rasmus Andersson (93)
23. Matt Luff (96)
24. Cameron Lizotte (99)
25. Brandon Crawley (102)
26. Roy Radke (104)
27. Dante Salituro (109)
28. Mitchell Stephens (112)
29. Brett McKenzie (120)
30. Colton White (128)
31. Jeremiah Addison (129)
32. Justin Lemcke (137)
33. Trent Fox (139)
34. Brandon Lindberg (140)
35. Stephen Desrochers (145)
36. Hayden McCool (147)
37. Artem Artemov (150)
38. Matt Schmalz (167)
39. Adam Laishram (168)
40. Tyler MacArthur (175)
41. Gustaf Franzen (178)
42. Mike Davies (185)
43. Ethan Syzpula (194)
44. Jarett Meyer (201)
45. Marcus Crawford (207)
46. Riley Bruce (210)
LV. Connor Schlichting
Goalies
1. Mackenzie Blackwood (1)
2. Liam Herbst (11)
3. Connor Hicks (20)
4. Michael McNiven (21)
5. Jack Flinn (25)
6. Lucas Peressini (26)
If you want to see the full list, you can check it out here.
If you want to compare the final rankings to the midseason rankings, you can do so here.
Some Notes:
Biggest Risers
1. Cameron Lizotte +72
2. Brandon Crawley +71
3. Andrew Mangiapane +62
4. Matt Schmalz +43 (not listed on midseason)
5. Pius Suter +42
6. Dante Salituro +36
7. Stephen Desrochers +36
8. Colton White +26
9. Mike Davies +25 (not listed on midseason)
10. Kyle Capobianco +23
Others: Vince Dunn (+21), Anthony Cirelli (+21), Zach Senyshyn (+18), Adam Laishram (+18), Brandon Lindberg (+13), Travis Konecny (+12)
Biggest Fallers
1. Ethan Syzpula -98
2. Nick Betz -81 (not listed on final)
3. David Miller -52 (not listed on final)
4. Tyler MacArthur - 40
5. Hayden McCool -30
6. Petrus Palmu -30 (not listed on final)
7. Gustaf Franzen -27
8. Justin Lemcke -18
9. Matt Spencer -17
10. Garrett McFadden -17 (not listed on final)
Others: Michael McNiven (-15), Jeremy Helvig (-13), Marcus Crawford (-12), Connor Hicks (-10), Nikita Korostelev (-9), Rasmus Andersson (-9)
- My first inclination was, "NHL CSS seems much higher on the OHL crop than they were earlier this season." But upon further review, that isn't really the case. Only a few more OHL'ers inside the top 100. But many of the OHL's top prospects did make some significant gains on the list (as you can see), and all of them are pretty justified IMO.
- In terms of surprises, I'd say Jesse Barwell not squeaking on to the list somewhere is pretty surprising considering how well he finished the season in Saginaw. Sam Harding is another name that continues to be missing in comparison to my own personal list.
- Great to see some of the OHL's top re-entry guys rising on the list as Suter, Mangiapane, Schmalz, and Liam Herbst all rose on the list pretty significantly. Much deserved.
- The big one that's generating a lot of buzz is the ranking of Lawson Crouse over Mitch Marner. I love Crouse, but I'm with people in disagreeing about that one. Marner is second on my list right now.
- Central Scouting continues to love Anthony Cirelli. I think he's a solid young player who has been a pleasant surprise for Oshawa this year. But I don't get his ranking in comparison to some of the other guys lower than him.
- Tough fall for two of the OHL's second tier of draft eligible net minders. McNiven and Hicks took a big tumble. McNiven was a different player after his bad showing at the Top Prospect's Game. I still believe in his long term potential though. And Hicks has size and could also be a quality net minder. Both are still late round NHL picks IMO.
Here is a breakdown for OHL players.
Skaters
1. Connor McDavid (1)
2. Dylan Strome (4)
3. Lawson Crouse (5)
4. Mitch Marner (6)
5. Pavel Zacha (8)
6. Travis Konecny (14)
7. Vince Dunn (32)
8. Mitchell Vande Sompel (34)
9. Zach Senyshyn (38)
10. Kyle Capobianco (44)
11. Travis Dermott (46)
12. Blake Speers (49)
13. Nikita Korostelev (50)
14. Graham Knott (57)
15. Anthony Cirelli (67)
16. Matt Spencer (68)
17. Pius Suter (74)
18. Gustav Bouramman (75)
19. Chris Martenet (81)
20. Andrew Mangiapane (85)
21. Thomas Schemitsch (91)
22. Rasmus Andersson (93)
23. Matt Luff (96)
24. Cameron Lizotte (99)
25. Brandon Crawley (102)
26. Roy Radke (104)
27. Dante Salituro (109)
28. Mitchell Stephens (112)
29. Brett McKenzie (120)
30. Colton White (128)
31. Jeremiah Addison (129)
32. Justin Lemcke (137)
33. Trent Fox (139)
34. Brandon Lindberg (140)
35. Stephen Desrochers (145)
36. Hayden McCool (147)
37. Artem Artemov (150)
38. Matt Schmalz (167)
39. Adam Laishram (168)
40. Tyler MacArthur (175)
41. Gustaf Franzen (178)
42. Mike Davies (185)
43. Ethan Syzpula (194)
44. Jarett Meyer (201)
45. Marcus Crawford (207)
46. Riley Bruce (210)
LV. Connor Schlichting
Goalies
1. Mackenzie Blackwood (1)
2. Liam Herbst (11)
3. Connor Hicks (20)
4. Michael McNiven (21)
5. Jack Flinn (25)
6. Lucas Peressini (26)
If you want to see the full list, you can check it out here.
If you want to compare the final rankings to the midseason rankings, you can do so here.
Some Notes:
Biggest Risers
1. Cameron Lizotte +72
2. Brandon Crawley +71
3. Andrew Mangiapane +62
4. Matt Schmalz +43 (not listed on midseason)
5. Pius Suter +42
6. Dante Salituro +36
7. Stephen Desrochers +36
8. Colton White +26
9. Mike Davies +25 (not listed on midseason)
10. Kyle Capobianco +23
Others: Vince Dunn (+21), Anthony Cirelli (+21), Zach Senyshyn (+18), Adam Laishram (+18), Brandon Lindberg (+13), Travis Konecny (+12)
Biggest Fallers
1. Ethan Syzpula -98
2. Nick Betz -81 (not listed on final)
3. David Miller -52 (not listed on final)
4. Tyler MacArthur - 40
5. Hayden McCool -30
6. Petrus Palmu -30 (not listed on final)
7. Gustaf Franzen -27
8. Justin Lemcke -18
9. Matt Spencer -17
10. Garrett McFadden -17 (not listed on final)
Others: Michael McNiven (-15), Jeremy Helvig (-13), Marcus Crawford (-12), Connor Hicks (-10), Nikita Korostelev (-9), Rasmus Andersson (-9)
- My first inclination was, "NHL CSS seems much higher on the OHL crop than they were earlier this season." But upon further review, that isn't really the case. Only a few more OHL'ers inside the top 100. But many of the OHL's top prospects did make some significant gains on the list (as you can see), and all of them are pretty justified IMO.
- In terms of surprises, I'd say Jesse Barwell not squeaking on to the list somewhere is pretty surprising considering how well he finished the season in Saginaw. Sam Harding is another name that continues to be missing in comparison to my own personal list.
- Great to see some of the OHL's top re-entry guys rising on the list as Suter, Mangiapane, Schmalz, and Liam Herbst all rose on the list pretty significantly. Much deserved.
- The big one that's generating a lot of buzz is the ranking of Lawson Crouse over Mitch Marner. I love Crouse, but I'm with people in disagreeing about that one. Marner is second on my list right now.
- Central Scouting continues to love Anthony Cirelli. I think he's a solid young player who has been a pleasant surprise for Oshawa this year. But I don't get his ranking in comparison to some of the other guys lower than him.
- Tough fall for two of the OHL's second tier of draft eligible net minders. McNiven and Hicks took a big tumble. McNiven was a different player after his bad showing at the Top Prospect's Game. I still believe in his long term potential though. And Hicks has size and could also be a quality net minder. Both are still late round NHL picks IMO.
Monday, April 6, 2015
2015 OHL Playoff Predictions: Conference Semi-Finals
We're on to the second round of the OHL playoffs, as action in the Conference semi finals kicks off on Wednesday. The opening round didn't really provide us with a ton of drama as every series but two wrapped up in 5 games or under. And none went the distance (7 games). Quite frankly, I'm not sure I see any of the series' being incredibly close this round either. I think we've got a clear hierarchy in the league this year (in terms of teams built for the playoffs) and I'm very excited for the following round; the Conference finals.
After round one, my prediction record is 7-1, so I'm off to a good start.
Here's how I see round two shaking down.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Oshawa Generals vs. 5. Niagara IceDogs
Season Series: 2-0 (Niagara)
Analysis: The Dogs swept the season series, but those results don't mean a lot to me. Both games occurred prior to 2015 and the Generals didn't have McCarron, Mistele, Pedersen, Cassels, or Mermis in the line up for either game and Michael Dal Colle only played in one. So you can take the regular season matchup as worth a grain of salt. Everyone knows that the Niagara IceDogs were a better team than 5th in the East and they'll give the Generals a good fight. But I think that Oshawa is just too large for Niagara's defence to contain. And despite advancing to round two, goaltending was an issue in the opening round for the IceDogs. Brandon Hope will have to play much better if he hopes to give his team a chance of winning the series. The Generals are not only a well balanced scoring team, but they're the league's top defensive team too. Too much for Niagara to handle.
Prediction: Oshawa in 5
2. Barrie Colts vs. 3. North Bay Battalion
Season Series: 3-3 (TIE)
Analysis: I think this definitely has the potential to be the closest series among the four of this round. North Bay's sweep of Kingston in the first round was incredibly impressive. I expected them to win but not in that fashion. When you look at these two teams, they are built in very different ways. Barrie relies heavily on their top line and the speed and energy they bring. And they rely on Mackenzie Blackwood to make big saves (which he did in round one). Where as North Bay is a three line team who plays a grind it out, trapping approach. They look to use their size to wear down the opposition and they hope to stifle the creativity of opposing forwards by playing tough team oriented defence. Ultimately, I see North Bay taking this one. I think this team is built for the playoffs (just like last year's squad). McIvor and Liberati did such a great job shutting down the Bennett line against Kingston and they'll draw the Blandisi/Mangiapane/Lebanc assignment. I also think the size of North Bay's forward group is going to give Barrie's relatively undersized forward group difficulty. The wildcards for Barrie are obviously the return of Brendan Lemieux (which could happen sometime during this series) and the play of Blackwood. I still don't see it being enough.
Prediction: North Bay in 5
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds vs. 4. Guelph Storm
Season Series: 4-0 (SSM)
Analysis: I was surprised with the result of the Storm/Attack series. I give Guelph credit for battling hard to get that win. They were outplayed in several games of that series but Justin Nichols really was sensational and the difference maker. No offence to Nichols, but I don't think there is anything he can do in this battle with the Greyhounds. Sault Ste. Marie is big, fast, poised, and experienced. Realistically, they've got four lines that can hurt you and they'll just pound you into submission. With the way this team is playing right now, I don't think anyone in the West competes with them. That said, Justin Nichols seems to be on a mission right now so I'm sure he'll steal a game (probably one of the Guelph home games).
Prediction: Sault Ste. Marie in 5
2. Erie Otters vs. 3. London Knights
Season Series: 5-1 (Erie)
Analysis: This one won't be a goaltending battle, that's for sure. Two high powered offences duking it out for a chance to get beat up by the Hounds (only partially sarcastic). Erie faced a bit of adversity in round one against Sarnia and I think it was good for them. Their balanced offensive attack is going to be a lot for London's inexperienced defence to handle. It was that way during their regular season match ups and I see the trend continuing. London just doesn't have the depth to compete with Erie in a shoot 'em up type of series. If anything, this experience will be fantastic for the Knights' young defenders as they'll get an opportunity to see the level they'll need to be at in the future. The only way Erie has trouble in this series is if they get into penalty trouble and give London's big guns a chance to play with the man advantage.
Prediction: Erie in 5
What do you think? Will all these series' be closer than I'm predicting?
After round one, my prediction record is 7-1, so I'm off to a good start.
Here's how I see round two shaking down.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Oshawa Generals vs. 5. Niagara IceDogs
Season Series: 2-0 (Niagara)
Analysis: The Dogs swept the season series, but those results don't mean a lot to me. Both games occurred prior to 2015 and the Generals didn't have McCarron, Mistele, Pedersen, Cassels, or Mermis in the line up for either game and Michael Dal Colle only played in one. So you can take the regular season matchup as worth a grain of salt. Everyone knows that the Niagara IceDogs were a better team than 5th in the East and they'll give the Generals a good fight. But I think that Oshawa is just too large for Niagara's defence to contain. And despite advancing to round two, goaltending was an issue in the opening round for the IceDogs. Brandon Hope will have to play much better if he hopes to give his team a chance of winning the series. The Generals are not only a well balanced scoring team, but they're the league's top defensive team too. Too much for Niagara to handle.
Prediction: Oshawa in 5
2. Barrie Colts vs. 3. North Bay Battalion
Season Series: 3-3 (TIE)
Analysis: I think this definitely has the potential to be the closest series among the four of this round. North Bay's sweep of Kingston in the first round was incredibly impressive. I expected them to win but not in that fashion. When you look at these two teams, they are built in very different ways. Barrie relies heavily on their top line and the speed and energy they bring. And they rely on Mackenzie Blackwood to make big saves (which he did in round one). Where as North Bay is a three line team who plays a grind it out, trapping approach. They look to use their size to wear down the opposition and they hope to stifle the creativity of opposing forwards by playing tough team oriented defence. Ultimately, I see North Bay taking this one. I think this team is built for the playoffs (just like last year's squad). McIvor and Liberati did such a great job shutting down the Bennett line against Kingston and they'll draw the Blandisi/Mangiapane/Lebanc assignment. I also think the size of North Bay's forward group is going to give Barrie's relatively undersized forward group difficulty. The wildcards for Barrie are obviously the return of Brendan Lemieux (which could happen sometime during this series) and the play of Blackwood. I still don't see it being enough.
Prediction: North Bay in 5
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds vs. 4. Guelph Storm
Season Series: 4-0 (SSM)
Analysis: I was surprised with the result of the Storm/Attack series. I give Guelph credit for battling hard to get that win. They were outplayed in several games of that series but Justin Nichols really was sensational and the difference maker. No offence to Nichols, but I don't think there is anything he can do in this battle with the Greyhounds. Sault Ste. Marie is big, fast, poised, and experienced. Realistically, they've got four lines that can hurt you and they'll just pound you into submission. With the way this team is playing right now, I don't think anyone in the West competes with them. That said, Justin Nichols seems to be on a mission right now so I'm sure he'll steal a game (probably one of the Guelph home games).
Prediction: Sault Ste. Marie in 5
2. Erie Otters vs. 3. London Knights
Season Series: 5-1 (Erie)
Analysis: This one won't be a goaltending battle, that's for sure. Two high powered offences duking it out for a chance to get beat up by the Hounds (only partially sarcastic). Erie faced a bit of adversity in round one against Sarnia and I think it was good for them. Their balanced offensive attack is going to be a lot for London's inexperienced defence to handle. It was that way during their regular season match ups and I see the trend continuing. London just doesn't have the depth to compete with Erie in a shoot 'em up type of series. If anything, this experience will be fantastic for the Knights' young defenders as they'll get an opportunity to see the level they'll need to be at in the future. The only way Erie has trouble in this series is if they get into penalty trouble and give London's big guns a chance to play with the man advantage.
Prediction: Erie in 5
What do you think? Will all these series' be closer than I'm predicting?
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