Tuesday, May 26, 2020

My Final Top 50 OHL Players for the 2020 NHL Entry Draft - Part 2: 31-50

The 2nd part of my Top 50 OHL players available for the 2020 NHL Entry Draft. This is where we actually dive into the Top 50, with players ranked 50 through to 31. Last year, only three players ranked in this range were selected. Needless to say, way more players will be drafted off of this list this year.

31. Mitchell Smith - Defense - Saginaw Spirit
The numbers don't jump out at you. We're looking at a 5'10 defender who put up only 16 points this year on one of the top teams in the OHL. Normally, that doesn't equate to being a potential draft prospect. However, you have to watch Smith play to truly appreciate what he brings to the table. Even though he was placed in a role that saw his offensive responsibility somewhat limited, he still managed to stand out as a potential puck mover. I think every time I saw Smith play, he had at least one good end to end rush that resulted in a scoring chance or a zone entry with prolonged possession. A lot of the year, he paired with older and more confident offensive defenders like Ilya Solovyov, DJ Busdeker, Mason Millman, and to close out the year, Bode Wilde. I think this masked his true abilities offensively. What it did showcase was his strength as a defensive player and his mind. He's not a big kid, but his high end mobility and hockey sense help him to be a quality stick on puck defender already. I felt like he and Bode Wilde really developed nice chemistry together as a pairing and I was really looking forward to seeing how he handled heavier minutes in Saginaw's playoff run. Unfortunately, we didn't get that chance. Another thing worth mentioning is that not only was Smith a first year OHL player who more than held his own, but he's also the youngest player eligible for the draft with a September 15th birthday. I see a lot of a kid like Travis Dermott in Smith (a fellow later birth date) and I could easily see him following a similar trajectory. If someone asked me which player eligible this year could surprise next year and make us wonder "why did this kid go so late," it would be Smith.

32. Cameron Tolani - Center - Ottawa 67's
I'm telling you right now; if the rest of the OHL season hadn't been canceled (including the playoffs), Cameron Tolnai would have shot up the draft rankings (similar to the way that Brent Burns did back in 2003 after a terrific end to the year). Be it a lack of ice time. Be it a lack of confidence. Whatever the reason; Tolnai just couldn't find his groove in the first year and a half of his OHL career. The former 6th overall pick in the OHL Priority selection has always had the talent package, and showed flashes, but wasn't able to put it all together. But each month, we saw Tolnai get a little bit better. And when Graeme Clarke returned at the end of the year, giving Tolnai a formidable winger, it was like an awakening. 11 points in his final 10 games, but it was how he was creating those, as 8 of those 11 points were primary points. He was driving play from down the middle by using his size (6'1) and skill package. Putting defenders on his back. Clearing space. And making skilled plays below the hash marks to create time and space. This kid, when he is on, is the complete package and has as much upside as many of the players in my top 20. Power centers with size and skating ability are highly coveted by the NHL. The only issue is that sample size. I'm still slightly concerned about whether his hockey sense offensively is high end. And I think that will be the biggest deterrent for teams. Like I said, if he continued to play well and was a near point per game player in the playoffs for Ottawa's long playoff run, we're talking about Tolnai as a top 60 selection. Do you roll the dice, hoping the year end was not the aberration, but the real Cam Tolnai? 

33. Reid Valade - Left Wing - Kitchener Rangers
Valade may not be the biggest guy on the ice, but he makes up for it by being one of the hardest workers. A powerful and quick skater, Valade brings consistent energy on and off the puck by working hard on the forecheck and the backcheck to gain or maintain possession. He is a little bit like the little engine that could out there. As such, he brings a lot of versatility to Kitchener's lineup by having the ability to play a scoring line role or more of a shutdown role. He also is an integral penalty killer for the Rangers. From an offensive stand point, Valade's best attribute, in my opinion, is his shot release. He has a terrific wrist shot that should see him develop into a high quality goal scorer at the OHL level. The biggest thing for Valade is just adding size to his frame. He had some difficulty with injuries this year and given his abrasive style of play, he's going to need to bulk up his 5'10 frame. This would also help him be a more consistent play creator in transition as he would be more difficult to separate from the puck. While Valade's projection at the NHL level would more than likely top out as a quality 3rd line winger, he would still be a quality selection at the draft because of all the things he does well and can bring to the table. A relatively safe bet with goal scoring upside.

34. Tanner Dickinson - Center/Left Wing - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
Speed, speed, and more speed is the name of the game for Dickinson. He is an effortless and powerful skater. Has these really nice long strides that allow him to build up speed quickly coming through the neutral zone. He can be a real asset in terms of gaining entry to the offensive zone. Dickinson also shows great vision in transition, keeping his head up once across the blueline and identifying open linemates. He also understands how to alter his pace to open up passing lanes, exhibiting poise and confidence with the puck. The rest of his game is quite raw though. A lot of that likely has to do with physical immaturity. He needs to add strength. He can be too easily pushed off of the puck or driven into the corners and he just isn't strong enough to win those board battles to keep possession. His shot is not of high quality either and as such, he is very much a pass first player. If you're an analytics driven person, Dickinson's numbers aren't likely to impress you. His even strength primary points per game average (0.1875) was 60th in the OHL among first time draft eligible players (behind the likes of George Diaco, Jonah De Simone, and Elias Cohen, players that I didn't even rank as HM's). But, I do think a lot of that has to do with his lack of strength and does not represent his overall potential. He's pushing the pace and deferring after, but if you can get him to be able to push deeper, there's a lot of upside here. The eye test is better than the underlying numbers here.

35. Rory Kerins - Center - Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
Interesting to compare and contrast Dickinson and Kerins, considering that I have them back to back from the same team and they play the same position. Kerins is a jack of all trades type who is relied upon to play a shutdown role for the Hounds a lot of the time. Of course, that means he's great in all three zones. He's not huge at 5'10, but he's strong off the puck and is great at gaining inside leverage on puck carriers on the backcheck, and great at winning those board battles. In the offensive end, while Kerins is a goal scoring center, first and foremost, I actually think his vision is good, especially in the cycle or coming off the wall. But as said, it's his hands in the slot and his quick release which are his best assets. He operates extremely effectively as a net front presence despite not being a big kid. He really is a well rounded player and that's why I know some are quite high on him. That said, there are some things that I am slightly worried about. Kerins' shooting percentage of 22.73 was the highest of any draft eligible player in the OHL (ahead of the likes of Quinn, Perreault, Mysak, etc). It's likely not sustainable, which means those goal scoring numbers could be inflated a bit. He's more of an opportunistic scorer than a driver. Additionally, while a good skater, Kerins is not a great one. NHL teams are looking for size and skating ability down the middle these days, especially from players who fit Kerins' profile and potential. However, the season he had deserved attention. He's a smart, hard working two-way center who can put the puck in the net.

36. Hayden Fowler - Left Wing/Center - Erie Otters
Fowler came into the year as a personal favourite of mine. I felt like he possessed great upside as a quick, yet tenacious player. 2018/19 was a tough year for Fowler because of a clavicle injury, so while he's a third year player and a late 2001, he really hadn't played as much as his peers. As such, I thought he'd have a monster year. This season started off quite well, but as the season wore on the consistency issues continued to plague him. In particular, Fowler didn't close the season off well. When he's on, Fowler is a dynamic player in transition. He is quick, yet sturdy thanks to a wide base that helps to offset his lack of elite size at 5'10. And he is very aggressive in driving the net, possessing quick hands and a quality shot. Fowler is also an ultra competitive kid who loves finishing his checks and who plays a very physically intense brand of hockey. However, he can still have a tendency to disappear from an offensive perspective. Despite being a physically assertive player, he will go stretches that see him touch the puck very little. He's kind of all over the place in that regard. The other question I have is, is he a center or a winger long term? He has played both, however, I think his skill set suits the wing better. If you're drafting Fowler, you're hoping that he can figure out how to balance his physicality and his skill with the puck, and you're hoping that his awareness in the offensive zone improves to help him find those scoring chances more consistently.

37. Logan Morrison - Center - Hamilton Bulldogs
Morrison is a kid who divides the opinion of scouts because he's a very intelligent player, but one who lacks flash and physical tools. As such, he is hard to project. On one end, Morrison thinks the game at such a high level in all three zones. He has a great stick in the neutral zone that forces a lot of turnovers. He's also such a good opportunistic goal scorer as he pounces on loose pucks or finds his way to the slot behind a defender. From there, his high quality release nets him his share of goals. On the other end, he's 5'11 and far from a high quality mover. His skating has improved over his OHL career, but it will still need to get better given his lack of elite size and reach. He's also not a dynamic puck carrier. He plays a pretty safe North/South game, but can struggle to create his own scoring chances because he doesn't have the hands, strength, or speed to create the separation he needs. As another scout I spoke to put it, "sometimes he waits for the play to come to him." The good news is those physical tools can be improved, while his hockey sense is an innate quality. That's why I'd have a lot of time for Morrison in the later rounds in hopes that he can get a little quicker and become a more dynamic player in transition.

38. Cameron Butler - Right Wing - Niagara IceDogs
The issue with Butler really is just consistency. There's definitely a top notch power forward ready to be unlocked. Butler is huge at 6'4, 200lbs, but actually skates pretty well. He has some explosiveness to his stride that allows him to get behind defenders and he's hard to knock off stride too. Additionally, Butler has a big, powerful shot. In terms of velocity, I would place it in the top 5 of those eligible from the OHL this year. And as mentioned, Butler can play with power and will look to engage physically on the forecheck to help force turnovers or recover dump ins. There are a few things right now that prevent Butler from being a more consistent offensive threat. The first is his shot release. He needs to get his shots off quicker and improve his release, especially when in traffic. He can have trouble finishing off plays in tight because of this. Second is his confidence and competence with the puck on his stick. He has the size, but isn't as effective as he could be along the wall because the hands just aren't quick enough right now. Third is his vision with the puck in transition. He can have that tunnel vision when bringing the puck over the blueline and can have trouble identifying passing lanes before being neutralized. Lastly, like a lot of young power forwards, finding that balance between physicality and finding open space offensively, is critical. Sometimes he looks a bit lost in the offensive end because he's unsure of how to attack. This comes with confidence and improved conditioning for a lot of players. I have a lot of time for someone like Butler in the middle rounds, because if he can put it together, he's an impact player and the type that doesn't grow on trees anymore.

39. Riley Piercey - Left Wing - Flint Firebirds
Piercey is a big kid (6'3, 200lbs) who plays with a real wide base that allows him to use his size to his advantage down low.  He's not the most explosive skater, but I felt like his overall mobility (especially his ability to use his edges) really improved over the course of the year. This allowed him to cut into the middle more effectively on net drives coming off the wall. Following the trade to Flint, he had some really nice success (21 points in 27 games). However, it's important to note that 10 of those points came in a four game stretch. So the consistency issues that he had in Barrie carried over to Flint too. I guess my biggest question mark is how good his hands and overall offensive skill set is. There's obviously a lot of room for growth here, but what is the maximum ceiling? Does he possess the kind of creativity or shot release to be a quality goal scorer? Does he have the vision to be a better playmaker down low? Can he improve his skating further? I'm not as confident in those answers being yes, as I am with some of the other "bigger" forwards that I have ranked ahead of Piercey. Definitely a kid worth a draft pick later on though.

40. Jake Uberti - Center - Niagara IceDogs
One of the most difficult things about playing on a poor team as a draft eligible player, is that the opportunity for you to show scouts what you're capable of is significantly reduced. Once Niagara dealt away Akil Thomas and Phil Tomasino, and without a high end draft prospect, scouts just weren't flocking to see the IceDogs get trounced by a stronger team. The unpredictability of scouting (players out of the line-up, blowouts, etc) can be frustrating if you make the drive to a rink. So generally speaking, you want to focus on games that are more likely to give you good viewings. Personally, I didn't see the IceDogs play very much in the second half, so I'm admitting that fully before this Uberti assessment. When I did see the Dogs, Uberti stood out as one of the few forwards remaining (Lodnia obviously the main draw) who had the ability to drive the play and create scoring chances. He's got good size (at 6'1) and good wheels that makes him a dangerous player off the rush. He's very adept at gaining the blueline and is not afraid of playing between the middle and driving the net. He's got good hands to finish off plays in tight too. I guess the issue I have is that, I don't have a good enough reading on him to place him much higher than this. Does he possess the vision and creativity to stick down the middle? Does he have the potential to be a top 9 forward at the next level? I have him ranked as a potential draft pick still because you have to respect a good skating center with size. However, I'd need to see him more to be more confident in his future abilities.

41. Vitali Pinchuk - Left Wing - Kingston Frontenacs
From start to finish, Pinchuk was one of the most improved draft eligibles this year in the OHL. His strong play to close out the year was one of the reasons (along with the play of that dominant first line) that Kingston was able to win more games down the stretch. He had 16 points in his final 16 games, including eight goals. Early on, we saw Pinchuk flash the ability to create in transition with his speed and puck skill, but he was too easily pushed off the puck or directed to the corners to be a consistent contributor. But as the season progressed, we saw him gain the confidence necessary to start attacking the middle more and he had clearly put in the work to get stronger as he was finding more success maintaining possession long enough get a shot off, or maintaining possession even after being directed to the corner. There is certainly some flash to his game and the offensive upside is actually quite high. My concern, I suppose, is that I didn't see high end hockey sense or vision from Pinchuk to suggest that he's extremely likely to hit that high end upside. However, the progression he showcased this year is certainly encouraging and it, no doubt, has him on the draft radar. One thing I do wonder though, is will Kingston continue with Pinchuk as an Import next year? They've got some holes in their lineup still (on defense and in goal) and they have a high Import selection this summer. Convincing high end players and agents to play in Kingston is a lot easier when you've got Shane Wright at the forefront, along with the attention he brings. It will be something for them to ponder.

42. Ole Bjorgvik Holm - Defense - Mississauga Steelheads
For as much as Bjorgvik Holm struggled at times this year, he still have some real projectable qualities in his game. First is his size and reach at 6'3, 190lbs. I think he generally does a great job of using his size below the hash marks, pinning/sealing and separating players from the puck along the wall, and clearing the front of the net. I also think that his mobility shows potential. He moves well forward and backwards, it's the lateral movement that can sometimes cause him to lose his footing. And when he has time to operate, he actually makes a good heads up first pass. There is offensive potential there. But his game is extremely raw and he can have some really ugly moments. A lot of those moments occur when he's pressured by a two man forecheck. He can have trouble maintaining possession through turns, and as such turnovers can be a problem. Additionally, he can get himself in penalty trouble in the defensive end by failing to move his feet and reaching. However, it's important to remember that Bjorgvik Holm played midget hockey last year in Colorado and it would have been a heck of an adjustment for him. He was given a lot of ice time for the Steelheads this year (including time spent as Thomas Harley's d-partner) for good reason. Patience will be key, but it could pay off.

43. Lleyton Moore - Defense - Oshawa Generals
On talent alone, Moore certainly deserves to be ranked higher. Let's not forget that we're only a few years removed from some scouts believing that Moore had the potential to be the best offensive defender in this age group (even over former teammate Jamie Drysdale). On that Marlboros team, Moore was the more effective and noticeable powerplay QB, as an example. Yet, in his second OHL season, Moore still hasn't quite found his footing/niche. Why is that exactly? I think a lot of it has to do with a lack of strength. His mobility is a major asset. He's a terrific skater. But the majority of his pushes through the neutral zone at even strength result in a loss of possession, something that caused him to be less aggressive as a puck carrier over the course of the season. Additionally, his shot is not at this point a serious weapon, nor does he have a ton of confidence in it. This takes away from his effectiveness as a powerplay quarterback. I actually think Moore defends quite well for a 5'8, 170lbs kid, by using his mobility to stay ahead of attackers. However, what is Moore moving forward? The most effective that Moore looked all year may have been during a short stretch on the wing later in the year. And his small stature and lack of confidence offensively will have NHL scouts questioning the type of role he could play at the next level. The potential is there. That's why he's still ranked in my top 50. But he's more likely a guy that I see NHL teams waiting on to see how he develops over the next two years before they look at bringing him on board.

44. Jacob Murray - Defense - Kingston Frontenacs
Murray is a defender that I think was a lot better than the statistics would suggest. He played key minutes for the Frontenacs this year, and was a big part of their powerplay. He combines good size at 6'2, 200lbs, with good mobility. I think he holds the line really well in the offensive end thanks to his mobility and has the potential to score his share of goals with a heavy point shot. I think his defensive game and play with the puck in his own end improved a lot over the course of the year. This is especially true for his ability to win battles behind the net, gain possession and start the breakout. I'd like to see him use his mobility a little more effectively still, especially when handling dump ins. And I think his confidence as an offensive asset at five on five is still pretty low. But Murray has the chance to be the top defender and powerplay QB on a team that is going to score a ton of goals over the next few seasons. He has a chance to develop as a real asset at both ends. Whether he does or not, remains to be seen. But this is a kid with size, mobility, offensive talent and a good opportunity to develop moving forward. We're not seeing him on a ton of draft lists right now, but that doesn't mean that he's not on some NHL lists.

45. Ville Ottavainen - Defense - Kitchener Rangers
Ottavainen proved to be a pretty difficult player to evaluate this year in Kitchener. He started the year off quite well. He looked fantastic in the preseason and I think most scouts would agree that it set the bar high going into the year. Unfortunately, as the year progressed, Kitchener got healthy and they improved drastically as a team. I say unfortunately because this caused Ottavainen to drop down the depth chart to the point where he was pretty sparsely used on the third pairing. Early in the year, we saw him be aggressive as an offensive defender, using his long strides to break through stick checks and push through the neutral zone. And we saw him on the powerplay. His mobility is pretty good for a huge defender (6'4, 200lbs), and he can cover a lot of ground in all three zones with that and his reach. He doesn't have much power in his strides so his acceleration and forward speed isn't terrific. That limited his effectiveness to some degree. However, later in the year, we saw him fall back more into a shell. Chipping pucks out and not showing as much skill with the puck. Struggling at times in his own end. Moving forward, he's very much a project. He's signed in Finland for next year, but the plan is for him to be loaned back to Kitchener for another year (at least). The only issue is that Kitchener isn't graduating many defenders; the only one being Axel Bergkvist. And as it stands, I think his role on the powerplay wouldn't be guaranteed to Ottavainen. It could very well go to Donovan Sebrango, Simon Motew, or a veteran like Mike Vukojevic. The way I see it, he'd still be a third pairing defender. Where's the ice time for his development, given that he's a longer term project?

46. Tucker Tynan - Goaltender - Niagara IceDogs
Let me assure you, Tynan is not being ranked simply as a "feel good story" because of his gruesome injury. In fact, had he not suffered that deep laceration, I'd probably have him quite a bit higher. I have some reservations about his recovery and the smaller sample size of his rookie year, thus a more moderate ranking. However, from September to the beginning of December, Tynan was performing as one of the best goaltenders in the OHL. He wasn't getting credit for it because the IceDogs weren't in the spotlight, but he was the goaltender in 11 of Niagara's 18 wins...and he didn't play past December 7th. I know, I know, Niagara dealt Akil Thomas, Phil Tomasino, and Kyen Sopa. But they weren't a great defensive team even with those guys, and Tynan was keeping them in games that they didn't deserve being in. He flat out stole some of those victories. At the time of his injury, Tynan was seeing among the most rubber of any goalie in the league, yet he held firm with a .910 save percentage. Not a huge goalie at 6'0, Tynan relies a lot on his quickness and athleticism. There's a lot of Mikey Dipietro in his game with how well he takes away the bottom part of the net with his pushes laterally and backwards. And even though he has a tendency to go down a little early, he keeps himself in the play by holding his positioning/angles and tracking pucks through crowds. Yes, smaller goaltenders do have a greater margin for error because it means their positioning needs to be that much better. However, Tynan showed enough to me that I would use a later round selection on him, even with a steep recovery ahead of him. I really wish he had managed to play a full year.

47. Kirill Steklov - Defense - London Knights
I would be willing to guarantee that Steklov is drafted higher than I have him ranked. Defenders who are 6'4 and can skate like Steklov are highly coveted by NHL teams and scouts hoping to uncover the next great shut down defender. He's raw, but there is certainly that kind of potential for the next level. A stick on puck defender, Steklov is difficult to get around because he covers so much ground with his reach and his quickness. He also does flash some ability to be an asset in transition, occasionally going for the odd jaunt beyond his blueline. That said, I think his game is just a little too raw for me to have ranked higher personally. Too many of these types just don't work out because teams reach based on a projection that is likely far fetched. While Steklov is a good mover, I don't see enough skill as an offensive player for him to be a capable point producer at the next level. And he's not really a physical player (as mentioned, he prefers using his reach), so he's not as difficult to play against as he should be. He defends well off the rush, but lacks the strength and fierceness to be a top notch defender in zone coverage. Again, there are some pieces there so I can see why an NHL team would draft him high. I just find the success rate for players like Steklov is so low that I prefer reaching for other types in the later rounds.

48. Brett Brochu - Goaltender - London Knights
I admit it, I was wrong about Brochu this year. I was highly skeptical that this undersized rookie straight out of Junior C, would be able to keep up the level of play that he established early on. But he actually got better as the year went on and really was the saving grace of London's season, in a year where the lack of quality goaltending early on hurt the team's success. Much like Cedrick Andree, Brochu is going to be a high quality goalie in the league and someone who could win an OHL goaltender of the year award by the time his career is finished. But much like Andree, I wonder if Brochu is just too small to be considered an NHL draft prospect. As mentioned with Tucker Tynan, smaller goaltenders have their work cut out for them at the next level because their positioning and rebound control has to be so much better. The margin for error is that much greater. That said, Brochu, currently 5'11, is one of the youngest players available this year (September 9th). There's room for him to mature further physically. The athleticism, reads, composure, confidence. It's all there. As he gets stronger, he'll be a little better at holding his posts, but he's just a solid netminder. Again though, I just find it tough to rank him higher considering how few smaller goaltenders have found success after junior hockey. I'd love to get him into a development camp (will they even happen?) and see how he does against the cream of the crop, including some first/second year pro players.

49. Alec Belanger - Defense/Left-Right Wing - Ottawa 67's
Talk about a difficult player to assess this year. Is he a forward? Is he a defenseman? Up front, he looked good playing alongside Jack Quinn and Mitchell Hoelscher on the 67's second line. On the backend, he saw himself routinely paired with one of Ottawa's rookies on the third pairing. I do think that he is a defender long term. Next year, it is conceivable to see him as part of a top pairing with Merrick Rippon. But what about his potential as a future pro? And as an NHL draft selection? I think if Belanger was a more dynamic skater, it would be easier to envision his skill set translating. But as is, he's just an average mover who relies more on his vision and hockey sense than he does speed and creativity. Belanger is at his best as a defender when working the point in the offensive end. He holds the line well because he has great anticipation and, again, his vision is quite good. Rarely do you see him force plays. But I'm not sure I see him as a dynamic puck mover at even strength. And with his shuffle back and forth positionally, it's hard to get a read on his defensive capabilities. Overall, the production and IQ are great, but projecting him as a pro player is more difficult because of his situation. I'd probably want to see him play a full year at one position before making him a draft selection.

50. Mark Woolley - Defense - Owen Sound Attack
To be honest, I had higher expectations of Woolley coming into the year as a late 2001 born defender. While I never expected Woolley to be a huge offensive contributor, his play and confidence with the puck did not take the necessary steps forward in order to make him a serious contender for the top 100. Additionally, Woolley's skating is only average and did not improve to make him a better two-way defender. What Woolley is though, is a staunch stay at home defender. He is one of the most feared open ice hitters in the OHL and is aggressive in stepping up to deny zone entry. He wins battles along the wall. He has the size to defend the crease (6'3, 210lbs). He blocks shots. He anchors the Owen Sound Attack penalty kill and is out there against the best offensive players of the other team in important situations. Additionally, Woolley's humanitarian efforts should be mentioned here. As part of Woolley's Warriors, he helped raise $40,000 towards helping children with Type 1 diabetes. That type of stuff does not go unnoticed by NHL scouts, as it shows the type of character he has (if the 'A' on his chest this year, and likely 'C' next year, did not give that away). If you're drafting Woolley, you're hoping that over the next two years in the OHL (including his OA year), he can improve his mobility and his breakout pass so that his physical skill set and defensive acumen can translate to the pro level.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

https://youtu.be/_Htnr6JRXB0 (Jake Uberti)