Sunday, August 16, 2020

31 Teams in 31 Days - Toronto Maple Leafs

1. Nick Robertson - Peterborough Petes
Under a year removed from falling to the later part of the second round, Robertson exploded to lead the OHL in goals with 55 goals in only 46 games. His goals per game rate of nearly 1.2 was the 7th highest all time in the league, and the highest since John Tavares and Patrick Kane averaged just over a goal per game in the 2006-07 season. That's the reason why he has become the prospect who has improved their status, perhaps more than any other prospect in the world, going from being a late second round pick (he should not have been) to a top 25 prospect in the world on some lists. As Robertson physically matures, we're seeing those physical traits improve (science, I know). Always a strong lateral mover, Robertson definitely became quicker and more explosive this season and that may have been the biggest reason for his huge improvement. By adding that speed element, he's become an even more effective forechecker and player without the puck. Additionally, his conditioning improved to allow him to be able to play that high intensity brand of hockey more consistently. Shift in, shift out, he's out there working his butt off to make things happen. Really, those were the two things that pushed him down some draft boards and they are now a non issue for me. Of course, Robertson can absolutely fire the puck. His wrist shot generates such strong velocity, but it's also deadly accurate and he has multiple releases that make it difficult for goaltenders to track. He is also highly creative and a quick processor, who limits his turnovers in the offensive zone. He can make defenders miss, but he doesn't always try, identifying passing or shooting lanes quickly to be assertive and direct with the puck. At this point, the only thing holding Robertson back from being in the NHL full time next year is strength, and this is a highly motivated kid who I think will put in the work to be an NHL player for the Leafs next season. I'm going to predict a 20/20 rookie year in the NHL. If he's in the OHL, he could have a real chance to be a 60 goal scorer, even with missed time for the WJC's, and training camp/limited NHL action.

2. Semyon Der Arguchintsev - Peterborough Petes
It was a much better season for SDA this past year, getting his development back on track after a very disappointing draft +1 year. His 63 assists were third most in the OHL and for the first time in his OHL career, he was a (+) player.  I thought that most things that he needed to work on, improved. He looked a little quicker. He was a little more engaged physically, winning more challenges and doing a better job of maintaining possession through traffic. He was making quicker decisions with the puck and limiting his turnovers, especially in the offensive zone. These are all positives. His shot is still not a weapon and he remains a steadfast pass first player, however he definitely has the vision and creativity to be a one note player. For what it's worth, his completed passes percentage (according to InStat hockey) was second in the OHL behind Akil Thomas this year. That said, I do still believe that he faces an uphill battle to become an NHL regular. He's still so slight and while his footwork has improved, he doesn't possess the elusiveness you like to see from a smaller playmaker. My concern is that he won't be able to create the kind of time and space necessary for him to be an impact offensive player. And his play away from the puck, again improved, is not good enough to profile him as an effective bottom six player. So, he's the type that is going to need to be in a top 6 role to truly be effective. He'll start his pro career next year, and is hopefully able to crack the Marlies, but with the team's depth, that may not be a given.

3. Kalle Loponen - Sudbury Wolves
Playing in his first (and only) OHL season, Loponen was a bit of a disappointment for the Wolves. Because of a lack of strength in the defensive end, the Wolves had to really shelter his minutes, playing him on the powerplay and limiting his defensive zone starts. He's the only NHL prospect, OHL defender to be under 50% of challenges won this year (according to InStat Hockey), which gives proof to his inability to be effective in his own end. Where Loponen does look comfortable is running the point, be it on the powerplay or at even strength. He shows confidence with the puck and makes quick decisions and reads. He can be a little stiff at times, but the vision and precision are good as a playmaker. But as an offensive player, his lack of explosiveness really hinders his effectiveness at starting the breakout. He makes a good exit pass, but at this current moment, he's not a huge factor in transition. Next year, Loponen heads back to Finland, where Toronto will retain his rights for a few years. It will be interesting to track his development as he matures physically, as I do believe that the vision and IQ are strong, but the lack of physical tools prevents him from being able to utilize them.

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