Thursday, August 20, 2020

31 Teams in 31 Days - Winnipeg Jets

This is the end, my only friend...the end!

1. Declan Chisholm - Peterborough Petes
It was a very strong final season for Chisholm in the OHL that allowed him to earn his ELC with Winnipeg. Pretty much every area that he needed to improve on (consistency, physicality, offensive aggressiveness/assertiveness, point shot/PP confidence), showed massive growth. His bread and butter is certainly his ability to use his speed to start the breakout and create in transition. However, his defensive game really improved. He appeared so much more confident and assertive in attacking puck carriers or engaging physically down low; that physicality that he flashed last year was more consistently on display this year. His overall engagement and awareness in zone coverage looked much better. If you're a fan of advanced stats, you'll love seeing some of Chisholm's metrics according to InStat Hockey. His challenges won percentage of 62.6 was better than the likes of Bahl, Vukojevic, Kolyachonok, Regula, among others. And his 9 takeaways a game were also right near the top of NHL prospect defenders in the OHL. When he's able to win these battles, he's also able to use his speed to push up in the play and create odd man rushes and significant scoring chances. Back to his offense, Chisholm gained greater confidence in his shot and was looking to use it more consistently to keep defenders honest, especially on the powerplay. He did a better job of using his quickness to create those lanes or jump up in the play when needed. He's still not the world's most aggressive offensive defender; you won't see him extending his pushes too far into the offensive zone consistently, but he is effective. Additionally, at times, turnovers can be an issue upon entry as he tries to force plays or passes to create in transition before his team is set up. A bit more reserve or patience could be helpful to him there. However, no question, Chisholm is ready for the next challenge of pro hockey. In the AHL next year, I would expect Chisholm to have some success as his mobility will play right away. But he may need a year to really gain confidence with the puck, as we saw across his OHL career. A 20-25 point first season would be great for him IMO and a terrific target.


Wednesday, August 19, 2020

31 Teams in 31 Days - Washington Capitals

1. Connor McMichael - London Knights
Needless to say, it was a very strong year for McMichael as he established himself as one of the OHL's top forwards and cracked the 100 point barrier in his draft +1 year. This propelled him to a roster spot with Canada at the WJC's where his 5 goals were second on the gold medal winners. His hockey sense, without question, remains his best asset. This kid is an extremely intelligent hockey player who rarely makes a mistake with the puck and reads and reacts to the play at a level above his peers, which earns him so many good scoring chances. Of course, it also helps that his shot and release are both extremely good, so he's finishing on the majority of these chances that he's earning. The combination of these two skills is why London utilizes him on the point of the powerplay with Ryan Merkley so often. The thing is, McMichael scores in so many different ways. He creates his own chances with quick hands in traffic, finishing plays off with his shot. He redirects pucks in the slot and bangs home rebounds. He uses the one timer on the powerplay. He's not necessarily the flashiest player, as you shouldn't expect to see him going end to end, or through defenders. He's much more deliberate. Bottom line though, McMichael's 4.33 scoring chances per game (from InStat Hockey) put him tops in the OHL last season. In terms of the things I laid out for him to improve on at this time last year (working through traffic/the middle of the ice, becoming a more relentless and intense player away from the puck), I think there is still room for improvement there. I think he definitely found a way to be a better offensive player in traffic, no question. However, I do think that there is still room for growth in terms of being better in puck possession and doing a better job of engaging physically in the neutral zone and in his own end. This is supported by some of the advanced stats on InStat hockey too. Among NHL drafted players, McMichael's challenges won percentage (40%) and takeaways per game (2.8) were among the worst in the OHL cohort. Even though he has good positioning as a defensive player and is strong at the faceoff circle, I do still believe that his game could best suit the wing at the NHL level. What happens next year? That's a great question. It's obvious that Washington thinks highly of McMichael (including him in their playoff bubble) and I would be shocked if he does not earn at least a couple NHL games to start the year. That said, if it comes to playing in the NHL on the fourth line or returning to London for another year, the Capitals will send him back. There are still things for McMichael to work on and without a guy like Liam Foudy around, it would be interesting to see Connor take charge of zone entry (something he is not often responsible for on his line). If he's in the OHL, expect him to be a contender for the Red Tilson.

2. Martin Has - Guelph Storm
It was certainly a small sample size to evaluate Has, considering he only played 20 games for the Guelph Storm (not counting the North Bay game which was more of a formality so he could be traded) after coming over from Finland. Has was pretty much as advertised. Big, right shot defender who has some serious projectable qualities as a stay at home defender. He is pretty mobile for a 6'4 kid and defends in transition well with his reach and skating ability. However, in my limited viewings, I found him to be too passive in zone coverage. I certainly wanted him to play a little meaner and really assert himself down low. Additionally, I found him to be fairly passive with the puck, lacking the confidence to truly look to create. Instead, it's a lot of deferrals and chip outs. It's tough, because Has was barely given a chance to really get settled in before the pandemic shut everything down. I would be very curious to see how he looks next year in Guelph, starting the season with the team, becoming more confident within the structure of the coaching staff and the league. 

Tuesday, August 18, 2020

31 Teams in 31 Days - Vegas Golden Knights

1. Connor Corcoran - Windsor Spitfires
It was a really good year for Corcoran, from a progression standpoint, even if the Spitfires were plagued by consistency issues and ultimately underwhelmed as a team. He needed to show strong growth at both ends to earn that ELC from Vegas and he certainly did just that. As an offensive player, Corcoran really has excellent scoring instincts and a high quality shot; his 19 goals this year were no fluke. According to InStat Hockey, his 1.14 scoring chances per game were behind only Alec Regula (because of his work on the powerplay), Ryan Merkley, and Thomas Harley among NHL prospect defenders in the OHL. He jumps up into the play aggressively and will confidently cycle down low in the offensive end to keep plays alive. Corcoran's shooting ability is certainly an asset on the man advantage, where his one timer is very heavy. He did a good job cleaning up some of his exit pass issues in the defensive end and overall play with the puck, making quicker decisions and trusting his high end mobility to assist him more often. That said, this will continue to need to be a focal point moving forward to the pro level. Defensively, he established himself as one of the better defensive players in the OHL by increasing his physical intensity in his own end. Corcoran has always been strong as a transitional defender because of his gap control, reach, and mobility. However, this year, his work in coverage really took a step forward by being stronger along the boards and being more assertive in taking away space and engaging early. Corcoran is also a terrific shot blocker who plays a selfless game. I certainly feel more confident about Corcoran's NHL chances now than I did a year ago and a lot of that has to do with his improvements defensively. At 6'3, a right shot, and with a smooth stride, he's going to get his shot to be a quality stay at home defender, at minimum. I think that his offensive game will have some limitations as a pro, but if he can lock things down, continue to seek out scoring chances, provide value offensively there, and clean up his exits, he could be a quality third pairing guy for many years.

2. Mason Primeau - North Bay Battalion
Probably not the kind of season Vegas and the Battalion were hoping to get from Primeau in his draft +1 year. The hulking pivot saw his offensive production stagnate despite receiving a lot of ice time from the rebuilding Battalion. While there are certainly times where Primeau can dominate down low with his size and ability to protect the puck, those instances do not occur frequently enough. Some of the areas that needed improvement (skating, ability to receive passes in transition, ability to handle the puck at full speed, physical consistency) last year, still require that same level of growth for him to become a high end OHL player. Next year, North Bay will hope to be a better team and have certainly made some changes to their lineup to make sure of that. With the addition of Matvei Guskov, in addition to Luke Moncada and Liam Arnsby returning, there's no guarantee that Primeau gets the kind of ice time he'll need to increase his production considerably. With center depth all of a sudden, one wonders if North Bay will consider moving Primeau to the wing, or moving him to another organization. He'll likely need to be a point per game player in order to gain a contract from Vegas.

Monday, August 17, 2020

31 Teams in 31 Days - Vancouver Canucks

1. Ethan Keppen - Flint Firebirds
Not the best draft +1 year for Keppen, whose production took a step backward this season in Flint. Some of that was due to injury issues. Some due to inconsistent play. When healthy, he was routinely part of Flint's second line and did see some powerplay time, so a lack of ice time wasn't the issue. If you recall, I was a big fan of Keppen's in his draft year, so his development this year was definitely disappointing. I still think that he has the hands, vision, size, and three zone IQ to be a middle six player at the NHL level. But his skating will need to improve. And the consistency of his physical game and ability to win those battles in the corners was also somewhat frustrating. There are times where he is noticeable out there with his energy, but it's not translating to production. So where's the disconnect? I'd definitely like to see Keppen playing near the crease more consistently. He's a big kid and has good hands, but he's not seeking out those second chance opportunities or crashing the net the way that you'd like to see. Next year, Keppen probably plays a similar role for Flint, with a chance at the top powerplay unit. So he's going to really need to elevate his game and stay healthy to earn a contract from Vancouver. Again, I do still believe that we'll see him return to form next season and the 35/35 year that I predicted a year ago fits for the 2020/21 season too. 

2. Arturs Silovs - Barrie Colts
Silovs first OHL season probably didn't quite go according to Vancouver's plan. Splitting the starting role with Jet Greaves, he struggled with consistency. He would go a few weeks and look terrific. Then he would go a few weeks of really fighting the puck. Certainly, some of that could be attributed to Barrie's struggles as a team. The Colts are a young team and Silovs certainly had to face his share of odd man rushes, penalty kills, and other high end scoring chances. The 6'4 netminder certainly has an intriguing package of size and athleticism. It's why he was drafted in the first place. He looks the part of an NHL goalie some outings. However, the finer details of his game require a lot of work. He gets himself out of position or doesn't quite cover his angles properly when trying to challenge shooters. This is especially true for his blocker side, be it far side or near side. He also gives up too many second chance opportunities, failing to secure longer shots or failing to find pucks in traffic. All of these areas do certainly show potential, as I mentioned. And he's only an '01, so he still has time to figure it out. It remains to be seen what Silovs' intentions are next season. He could certainly return to Barrie for another year. The Colts could trade him and roll with Jet Greaves as their starter. He could play in the ECHL (as a European drafted player). Or he could play overseas somewhere. Seems likely that he comes back to the OHL, I'm just not sure it's with Barrie. 

Sunday, August 16, 2020

31 Teams in 31 Days - Toronto Maple Leafs

1. Nick Robertson - Peterborough Petes
Under a year removed from falling to the later part of the second round, Robertson exploded to lead the OHL in goals with 55 goals in only 46 games. His goals per game rate of nearly 1.2 was the 7th highest all time in the league, and the highest since John Tavares and Patrick Kane averaged just over a goal per game in the 2006-07 season. That's the reason why he has become the prospect who has improved their status, perhaps more than any other prospect in the world, going from being a late second round pick (he should not have been) to a top 25 prospect in the world on some lists. As Robertson physically matures, we're seeing those physical traits improve (science, I know). Always a strong lateral mover, Robertson definitely became quicker and more explosive this season and that may have been the biggest reason for his huge improvement. By adding that speed element, he's become an even more effective forechecker and player without the puck. Additionally, his conditioning improved to allow him to be able to play that high intensity brand of hockey more consistently. Shift in, shift out, he's out there working his butt off to make things happen. Really, those were the two things that pushed him down some draft boards and they are now a non issue for me. Of course, Robertson can absolutely fire the puck. His wrist shot generates such strong velocity, but it's also deadly accurate and he has multiple releases that make it difficult for goaltenders to track. He is also highly creative and a quick processor, who limits his turnovers in the offensive zone. He can make defenders miss, but he doesn't always try, identifying passing or shooting lanes quickly to be assertive and direct with the puck. At this point, the only thing holding Robertson back from being in the NHL full time next year is strength, and this is a highly motivated kid who I think will put in the work to be an NHL player for the Leafs next season. I'm going to predict a 20/20 rookie year in the NHL. If he's in the OHL, he could have a real chance to be a 60 goal scorer, even with missed time for the WJC's, and training camp/limited NHL action.

2. Semyon Der Arguchintsev - Peterborough Petes
It was a much better season for SDA this past year, getting his development back on track after a very disappointing draft +1 year. His 63 assists were third most in the OHL and for the first time in his OHL career, he was a (+) player.  I thought that most things that he needed to work on, improved. He looked a little quicker. He was a little more engaged physically, winning more challenges and doing a better job of maintaining possession through traffic. He was making quicker decisions with the puck and limiting his turnovers, especially in the offensive zone. These are all positives. His shot is still not a weapon and he remains a steadfast pass first player, however he definitely has the vision and creativity to be a one note player. For what it's worth, his completed passes percentage (according to InStat hockey) was second in the OHL behind Akil Thomas this year. That said, I do still believe that he faces an uphill battle to become an NHL regular. He's still so slight and while his footwork has improved, he doesn't possess the elusiveness you like to see from a smaller playmaker. My concern is that he won't be able to create the kind of time and space necessary for him to be an impact offensive player. And his play away from the puck, again improved, is not good enough to profile him as an effective bottom six player. So, he's the type that is going to need to be in a top 6 role to truly be effective. He'll start his pro career next year, and is hopefully able to crack the Marlies, but with the team's depth, that may not be a given.

3. Kalle Loponen - Sudbury Wolves
Playing in his first (and only) OHL season, Loponen was a bit of a disappointment for the Wolves. Because of a lack of strength in the defensive end, the Wolves had to really shelter his minutes, playing him on the powerplay and limiting his defensive zone starts. He's the only NHL prospect, OHL defender to be under 50% of challenges won this year (according to InStat Hockey), which gives proof to his inability to be effective in his own end. Where Loponen does look comfortable is running the point, be it on the powerplay or at even strength. He shows confidence with the puck and makes quick decisions and reads. He can be a little stiff at times, but the vision and precision are good as a playmaker. But as an offensive player, his lack of explosiveness really hinders his effectiveness at starting the breakout. He makes a good exit pass, but at this current moment, he's not a huge factor in transition. Next year, Loponen heads back to Finland, where Toronto will retain his rights for a few years. It will be interesting to track his development as he matures physically, as I do believe that the vision and IQ are strong, but the lack of physical tools prevents him from being able to utilize them.

Saturday, August 15, 2020

31 Teams in 31 Days - Tampa Bay Lightning

No OHL prospects for the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Friday, August 14, 2020

31 Teams in 31 Days - St. Louis Blues

1. Tyler Tucker - Flint Firebirds
Splitting the year between Barrie and Flint, Tucker had another very solid season, improving his offensive production yet again (to over the point per game mark), while remaining a stabilizing, physical presence in his own end. He continues to get himself in better shape and continues to improve his footwork and overall mobility. Tucker's best offensive weapon is his heavy point shot, but he also shows well moving the puck in transition and gaining the offensive zone. Turnovers can sometimes be an issue in the defensive end if he's not able to evade the forecheck quick enough. His decision making will need to improve in this regard. But once he escapes the blueline, he has the vision and skill to create. Defensively, his best assets are his physicality and his positioning, especially as a shot blocker. He is one of the OHL's most feared hitters in open ice and is aggressive in denying zone entry. As mentioned last year, and further improved this year, I do think that his lateral and backwards footwork have improved when defending in transition. Sometimes, I find that he is too passive though, in these scenarios, as he is leaving too big of a gap to compensate for his mobility and forwards are allowed to dictate as they wish. Additionally, Tucker will have to improve his routes to dump ins and be a little more assertive with his size and stick in tight quarters. For a big kid, he should be winning more of those one on one battles, but sometimes his routes and transitions put him at a disadvantage. He will engage physically, but can fail to seal/pin after contact and players will maintain possession through these hits. To give you an idea, InStat Hockey has him among the lowest at percentage of challenges won and takeaways for NHL drafted defenders in the league. It's not the full story, as I do think Tucker is better than those numbers might suggest. But at the pro level, there are things that will need refinement. Heading into his first pro season, I would expect Tucker to be an everyday player. I think he should be able to be around that 5 goal, 20 point mark that is fairly common for players of his ilk in their initial seasons. He's probably going to need a few years in the AHL, but could eventually develop into a quality, all situations #4-6 defender for the Blues. 

2. Keean Washkurak - Mississauga Steelheads
A high energy center, Washkurak did well operating as the Steelheads second line pivot this year, especially considering that he didn't have a talented goal scoring winger flanking him like Cole Schwindt did (James Hardie). A nice uptick in production due to an increased role is definitely a good thing to see. Washkurak is definitely dangerous when he's pushing the pace and is aggressive in trying to push across the blueline to gain the zone as he is lightning quick. However, his vision and processing ability in these situations are still improving. When he's at full speed, sometimes passes fail to hit their mark or turnovers are an issue as he skates himself into a corner. I think, like last year, his vision and playmaking ability is best on display down low where he always seems to keep his feet moving and does well to identify passing lanes when the game slows down. I think his engagement level, two-way play, and physicality were all more consistent this year. In fact, he was among the league leaders for forwards in takeaways this year (according to InStat Hockey). Because of his speed, he really is effective on the forecheck. This is also something that makes him a great penalty killer. Next year, I expect the Steelheads to be better and Washkurak should be able to push even further across the point per game mark. A 30 goal, 45 assist season is well within reach and would likely be enough to earn him an ELC from the Blues. He definitely has the makeup and profile as an NHL checking line player.