Wednesday, October 28, 2009

School Your Pool

My latest article for School Your Pool is up. You can find it HERE.

I did a lot of research for this article as I examined the likelihood of being a drafted by an NHL team after being originally passed over.

After reading the article, I ask for your opinion on two of the articles main themes...

Is being highly touted for the NHL draft and then going unselected the kiss of death for a prospect? What are the reasons for so many overage players being selected in the NHL draft?


Dobber said...

Fascinating article. It's rare that anyone takes the time to do more than pick or pan players based on common knowledge. Your interest and research is really appreciated. Now to toss in my two cents. Is going unselected after being highly ranked a kiss of death for subsequent drafts? I'm guessing we're confusing a correlation with a causal relationships. They're not getting skipped in subsequent rounds because they were skipped the first time around. They were skipped the first time around because, as you suggest, the NHL discovered something central scouting didn't know. Does Central Scouting get the results of team interviews (psychological batteries, etc)? Not saying they're all nuts, but your research certainly suggests the scouts are only getting the tip of the ice berg. The second question is easier (or I'm just not that profound). More previously unranked and undrafted overagers are getting drafted the 2nd and 3rd time around because they're later bloomers, seasoning, and for some the light bulb just goes on in the 2nd or 3rd year of eligibility and they figure out how to put it all together. No different from mites/squirts - given the same physical potential, some kids figure the rest out at different paces - all do it on their own schedule. imho

Brock Otten said...

Thanks for the comments Dobber.

As to your comment about the increased drafting of 2nd and 3rd timers, I think it's more than just the classic "late bloomer" concept. The Canadian Hockey League has seen many a late bloomers end up on the NHL radar. Previously, these guys were getting signed to contracts. Now they are getting drafted, and I ask why the switch in philosophy? I think it does have a lot to do with the NHL contract limits, as teams have to be more careful with the way they hand out ELC's. Drafting, instead of simply signing, these kids gives them the opportunity to see how they react at the professional level without actually having to sign them to an NHL contract. But then again, maybe we are just seeing more late blooming prospects as attention to things like conditioning increase.